AWA320
Veteran
One can count the retirement numbers any number of ways. According to the latest bid results, there are 102 active line pilots retiring within 12 months of the effective date of the bid which is Feb 1, 2008. So those 102 line pilot retirements are for the period starting about Feb 15, 2008 and Feb 1, 2009 since Resourse Planning normally takes the retirees for the 1st half of the bid effective month out of the bid - they'll be flying their position for part of the month (Feb 2008 in this case) but not shown on the permanent bid roster for that month.
I don't have a current list of "supervisory" pilots, but would be surprised if more than 3 or 4 would be retiring in the same timeframe (and need to be replaced, creating vacancies for line pilots). So let's call it 105-110 active pilots retiring in the mid-Feb '08 thru Feb 1 '09 timeframe.
Retirements for the ranks of those out on medical are not worth worrying about. If they don't return to active status, their reaching retirement age won't create any movement for active pilots. If they do return prior to retirement, they'll "displace" into a position, absorbing a vacancy (or bumping another pilot from that position) before they then retire and leave that position vacant (a net wash).
That leaves only two sources of additional retirements - any pilots returning from furlough that aren't included in the bid results (are there any other than a few possibly being held at J4J positions?) and any pilots on leave of absence that could return then retire. Any returnees from furlough (or J4J) would be pretty junior and LOA returnees would be like those returning from medical - absorbing a vacancy first then creating the same vacancy when they retired so ultimately no effect.
Jim
Point well taken Jim and of those numbers how many are first officers and do you think that f/o vacancies create capt positions??