Dudes,
Just remember, IT STILL HAS TO GO TO A VOTE. When is it going to sink in that the vast majority of the East pilots got MURDERED by NIC. 90% will say NO to a short term pay gain if it means a 5-15 year loss of seniority.
When is it going to sink in with the West that USAPA is doing exactly what 90% of their MEMBERS want. If 1600 guys voted for equal dist. on the 35M and they vote the same way for a joint contract that contains NIC the West is NEUTERED........THAT'S RIGHT.....NEUTERED. Boy that sucks for the West....but it does suck for all of US. We totally get the fact that FOR NOW you have the upper hand in the legal arena......but we have measured the NIC against any possible contract enhancements and IT AINT THERE AND NEVER WILL BE.
I have said it once and will say it again.....EVERY PILOT in the East knows that in 2, 2 1/2 years 200 East guys a year are out the door and movement will come. We don't care about the West attrition....keep it .....knock youself out. ...but you Westies will be pissed when the retirements kick in and you ain't partaking.......COUNT ON IT
VNIIMN
I think a little simple math is in order.
USAPA says they represent 5200 pilots. The last election results listed 2812 as eligible voters. That is only 52% of the pilots are migs. Not a good record. About the same as 16 months ago. Not making real progress are they.
Next the west has about 1700 pilot on property. That means that of that 5200 pilots subtracting the current west members, about 200. That leaves almost 900 east pilots that have not joined USAPA.
So taking the results of the last vote. Only 1600 voted for method A. Consider those same voters would vote no for a contract. No where near the 90% number that has been floated. 1600 of 5200 is only 30%. Even if all 200 west migs voted method B. That means that another 300 EAST pilots voted against the BPR.
The east has reached equilibrium. Not a lot of new members. So the east migs will remain about 2600. Soon the west will increase our migs. From 200 to over 1000, upwards of 1400.
Add our 1400 to the east voters. Neutered becomes an overdramatic word.
We might approach 4000 migs. 90% would be no votes of 3600. Still thank that number is valid? With 4000 migs it is 2001 to pass a contract. If USAPA can manage to negotiate a good contract. (That remains in doubt) With 1400 west migs we only need 601 east pilot to pass a contract. That is only about 20% of the east pilots need to vote with their head not emotion.
Just how long will the senior captains getting ready to retire going to wait to help the F/O’s?
When USAPA loses the appeal and the snap back that 601 should be fairly easy to get.
EVERY PILOT in the East knows that in 2, 2 1/2 years 200 East guys a year are out the door and movement will come.
Better be careful. Those 200 pilots might want a raise before they leave. Or at least a few more days of vacation and better schedules before they go. You know guys going out the door don't have to work with junior or answer any awkward questions. They are free to vote in their best interest. Not the guy sitting next to them. I am sure the guy creating the attrition would rather make his wife happy instead of the F/O he may fly with one time.
