767jetz,
I talked to my college roomate yesterday (UAL A320 Captain). He said all his f/o's are really worried about December. He is flying with guys hired in 1998.
Hate
I'm worried about the '98 hires as well. But what that has to do with the price of tea in China, I have no idea
Perhaps the reason some of you are so interested in UA is because another airline going with some form of slotting by equipment and status does not bode well for the "Gold Standard" of yesteryear. Maybe it's because a good contract at UA raises the bar again, making USAPA's goal of an industry standard contract even more unattainable.
Bottom line for UA is that there is an end game that will lead to a final result. (Unlike USAPA with no end in sight) That result will be a contract or a strike. The time line of this is up for debate. I do not have a crystal ball, and never claimed that it would happen at any particular time. Only that it will indeed happen and that it will be long before USAPA accomplishes anything for it's pilots. (Beyond the delay which I've already referred to.)
I can read the tea leaves (from China?), just like anyone else, interpolating from facts that we have available.
- The company knows that the pilot contract will cost them more than other groups. Therefore they have no desire to complete a JCBA with the pilots until other groups, particularly the F/A's, are complete. The reason for this is that in the past the pilots went first and opened up a can of worms with everyone else demanding "me too."
- F/A's must first vote on IAM or AFA before their contract can be complete.
- Contract 2000, the last non-concessionary contract we had, dragged on form many months until the company got serious. Then it was hammered out in about 6 weeks.
- The NMB has already told UA and ALPA that they have no intention of wasting tax payer money. IOW, we will be on the fast track once both sides are serious, and unnecessary delay from either side will be dealt with swiftly. They've already told the company on 2 occasions that they are not impressed with their pace and tactics, putting them on warning.
- UA and CO negotiating committee speaks with one voice now that differences have been resolved. So unity against the company is strong, as demonstrated by recent and future picketing events.
This is how contracts get resolved in the airline industry. It's a choreographed dance through many hoops. So my tea leaves say that a tentative agreement will be had by year end or ALPA will be released for self help by then. This makes the furlough clause expiration a moot point.
One last fact. You guys like to talk about attrition. By the end of 2012 the combined attrition at UA/CO will start to the tune of 600 to 900 pilots per year, almost exclusively from the left seat. Earlier if sick leave and early medicals are taken into account. So regardless of a contract, a strike, or any furlough clause, there is very little chance of furloughs barring a significant geopolitical or geo-economic event.