BoeingBoy
Veteran
- Nov 9, 2003
- 16,512
- 5,865
- Banned
- #11,701
Jim,
You are so fond of saying PROOF!!!! Yet when confronted you don't bother to do your homework and prove your statements.
I gave one example, enough to mean that your statement about all the FO's making A320 captains was wrong. Does it really matter how wrong? Would being wrong because of 5 pilots be better than being wrong because of 10? Maybe you should learn to stop making broad-brush statements that could turn out to be wrong.
If you want specific data on certain pilots, look somewhere else - you claim to have a spreadsheet with all this information (otherwise your spreadsheet is only as good as the assumptions it contains). I'm not going to name particular pilots here.
The fact is that attrition comes from all parts of the seniority list as well as from people already on medical, supervisory, and leaves of absence. Only attrition from the left seat gets FO's into that seat. When you go out years, the data becomes fuzzier - who will go out on medical in the next 5 years, who will return that's out now (producing displacements), will there be growth, status quo, shrinkage? Will the reserve system change for better or worse in a new contract - that can make a difference in who bids a captain job when.
As I've said before, the permanent bid process on the East side is complex and that has to be taken into account as well as where attrition comes from. Predicting where a given pilot will be in 5 years is an exercise in futility - You can't just take the difference between the bottom current captain and the total number of retirements to predict where people will be, expecially those near the bottom of the seniority list. For all you, I, or anyone else knows that may be one of the pilots that go out on medical before getting in the left seat.
Jim