When NWA struck there was a huge surpluss of mechanics, now there isnt. (one of the reasons I was so pissed that the International pushed signing off on a LOA eliminating the experience requirement for line maintenance-Gilboy and I were on the same page for that). Time stands still for no man. Half the A&P schools in the country have closed since 9-11. As old people leave there are not enough coming in to replace them. Look at the OT across the system, across the industry. While we typically see OT increase as we go into negotiations, one to make the troops happy and two so the company can lock in concessions and maximize savings that current workers are usually willing to pass on to new hires(example was in our TA New Hires would go to a 401K and not get retiree medical).
Most guys at places like TIMCO are not going to quit, move their families to places like New York to scab, they are making around $28 an hour and can live better in the Carolinas at that wage than they could at the Max rate in New York or Chicago.
As far as Union leadership I agree that their salaries make them too comfortable to risk it on us, sure they will work hard within the system to try and get some laws changed but they will never take the lead and have us do anything that puts them at risk, the only way you get leaders like that is if the members elect them directly. They rationaize their behavior by faulting the members themselves, they dont call the members sheep because sheep are herd animals and easily lead, then the blame would be theirs, they call the members cats, independant animals that do thier own thing, they will say that trying to get the members to do something is "Like herding cats". They will cite low attendance at meetings and low turnouts at demonstrations as justification for their position. Sure there is some truth in it but the duty of leaders is to find a way to get buy in from the people they claim they lead. This situation allows leaders to justify bringing back crappy deals because they can claim that if they lead the members in a fight that they would find themselves alone, the crappy contracts make the members lose faith in the leaders and the blame goes round and round. I feel that ultimately its the leaders job to take the risk and assume the members will be willing to fight for themselves, the fact is that this Union has never given the members the opportunity to fail, they have always gone on the assumption they would.
As far as needing 200million people to rise up for change if that was the case there would never be a Revolution anywhere. It simply doesnt happen, what happens is a huge majority become disalusioned but a minority rise up. No Revolution, no strike, no job action has ever had 100% buy in, would be nice, but it isnt needed to get results. What is needed is to make keeping the status quo (or their demands) more costly than meeting the needs of those participating in the Rebellion, strike, Job action etc.