I've been told the number of FA's necessary to support an MD80 is 20-21, 27-28 for a 757. So 50 MD80's grounded should result in about 1000 heads. 3000 would mean 150, or half the 80 fleet. I find that scenario a bit unlikely, especially all in one fell swoop. There is no magic number above which airlines can no longer do business. Prices will have to rise to reflect the cost of doing business, and that's already happening. A lot of people are going to continue to fly in a lot of airplanes to a lot of places, and I see AA being a part of that.
If aircraft are to be grounded, I think it's much more likely to be a gradual process; speeding up parking of the oldest 80's and looking for international opportunities for the newer 737's coming on line.
The last big furlough in July 2003 was a result of a massive concessionary contract change, and resulted in 3250 furloughs. The company had no problem getting 1350 FA's to voluntarily take a year off. The problem with AA's OVL program is that it isn't open ended. The 1350 had to come back the next year. UA, on the other hand, allowed people to stay out as long as there were people on the street. They also had a recall bypass option. AA should have both those things; they're strictly no cost items and save jobs for people who want to fly. In the event there should be a furlough, those things should be APFA's number one concern.
MK
Thanks Mark for providing reasoned speculation rather than hysterical opinions and rumors.