APA Pilots Reject TA

[WorldTraveler]

My gut is the FAs will be more inclined to vote no knowing they aren't in the boat by themselves.

Obviously the big questions are how far AA can push and how long the contract would stay in place.

There seems to be some debate about whether AA will need to emerge w/ the terms it imposes (honestly I don't know what is really permitted) but expectations of gaining much back are probably a long shot.

If AA's business plan says they need X amount of savings from labor and they obtain it even temporarily, it will be very hard to convince the creditors that the business plan is valid if they return right back to many of the same cost levels they had before.

It is very possible that BK could drag on alot longer, no one can really demonstrate that they could make a combined AA/XX work to a degree the creditors demand, and then AA's competitors intensify their competitive assaults on AA while they are still in BK.

The strategic and long-termmimplications of what has happened this week are not at all clear.

 

[nbmcg01]

AA lost credibility with the types of concessions requested/required. Some clearly do not affect the bottom line, others may violate protected health information. AA stated the concessions in 2003 were in lieu of bk. Now they want both.... There has to be some semblance of integrity in business.....somewhere

 

[Jacobin777]

My gut is the FAs will be more inclined to vote no knowing they aren't in the boat by themselves.

Obviously the big questions are how far AA can push and how long the contract would stay in place.

There seems to be some debate about whether AA will need to emerge w/ the terms it imposes (honestly I don't know what is really permitted) but expectations of gaining much back are probably a long shot.

If AA's business plan says they need X amount of savings from labor and they obtain it even temporarily, it will be very hard to convince the creditors that the business plan is valid if they return right back to many of the same cost levels they had before.

It is very possible that BK could drag on alot longer, no one can really demonstrate that they could make a combined AA/XX work to a degree the creditors demand, and then AA's competitors intensify their competitive assaults on AA while they are still in BK.

The strategic and long-termmimplications of what has happened this week are not at all clear.

While BK laws have changed, UA's BK went on for a few years.

I don't know what legal right(s) the judge has to extend the BK for AA.

I have a few questions for the people who said "No!" to the contracts:

1)What are you expecting out of Doug Parker?

2)Do you believe he is going to be able to deliver his promises or is he just promising lollipops?

3)Why should you believe in Mr. Parker when he hasn't been able to solve problems from his own carrier and when he certainly hasn't shown to the public how his plan will be successful.

4)Do you believe you employees should have the same (competitive) work/productivity+benefits+pay of your peers/competitors or better, and if better why?

 

[WorldTraveler]

I think the changes in BK laws are not as significant as what happens if the pilots and FAs both have an imposed contract and then AA wants to leave BK. That, I believe, has not happened before.

There still is some consideration as to how competitive pressure will affect AA as it goes into the winter. There remain alot of questions about the economy and airline stocks have taken a beating lately. Alot of analysts hold to the theory that airlines are good predictors of future economic activity and thus the sink in airline stocks reflects further weakness in the economy. Since all of the airlines are saying they see good demand and are managing capacity fairly well to demand, I'm not sure I agree... but the airline industry has been the victim of alot of other people's thinking for quite some time.

UA's BK dragged out for quite some time for sure but they also lost alot of competitive ground in the process. So far, AA has held its own fairly well; if AA's BK drags out, they could lose alot of momentum on the revenue side.

 

[700UW]

Didnt NW AFA not reach an agreement until NW exited Chapter 11?

 

[FWAAA]

Didnt NW AFA not reach an agreement until NW exited Chapter 11?

My recollection is that the NW FAs ratified their agreement the day before NW emerged from Ch 11.

 

[Jacobin777]

I think the changes in BK laws are not as significant as what happens if the pilots and FAs both have an imposed contract and then AA wants to leave BK. That, I believe, has not happened before.

There still is some consideration as to how competitive pressure will affect AA as it goes into the winter. There remain alot of questions about the economy and airline stocks have taken a beating lately. Alot of analysts hold to the theory that airlines are good predictors of future economic activity and thus the sink in airline stocks reflects further weakness in the economy. Since all of the airlines are saying they see good demand and are managing capacity fairly well to demand, I'm not sure I agree... but the airline industry has been the victim of alot of other people's thinking for quite some time.

UA's BK dragged out for quite some time for sure but they also lost alot of competitive ground in the process. So far, AA has held its own fairly well; if AA's BK drags out, they could lose alot of momentum on the revenue side.

Quite possibly-we won't really know. The first two "events" are going to be the 15th and 19th of this month. As "militaristic" the F/A union is, I hope they approve of deal. This will put a lot of pressure on the pilots's F/A to get some kind of deal going.

I felt the deal AA was offering to the pilot's union wasn't too bad actually. Given what the true unemployement picture is (>16%), I'm not so sure how many people want to be out of a job right now.

I do believe management could have shown some "good faith" in taking a pay cut as well (maybe they have, I don't know). We do know however, a lot AA employees have been laid-off.

We'll see.

 

[Kev3188]

Didnt NW AFA not reach an agreement until NW exited Chapter 11?

My recollection is that the NW FAs ratified their agreement the day before NW emerged from Ch 11.

The F/A agreement was ratified on 5/29, with emergence from BK on 5/31...

Not for nothing, but it was a case of third-time's-the-charm. The previous two T/A's were rejected, and of course there was a switch from PFAA to AFA in the middle of it all...

 

[Mach85ER]

I felt the deal AA was offering to the pilot's union wasn't too bad actually. Given what the true unemployement picture is (>16%), I'm not so sure how many people want to be out of a job right now.

You might look into a statistic for the 5-10 years. How many aircraft are being delivered during that period versus the number of certificated, experienced pilots getting "delivered" onto the job market. Remember to think globally, the pilot job market is now worldwide and getting more so.That was a factor in my NO vote to a contract that could have locked us in for probably a decade. If the vote was ten years ago, I would have voted YES.

I will note that a majority of those companies taking delivery of large aircraft have little interest in Regional pilots, even experienced Captains. Even with the potential to earn 6 figures as an RJ Captain in 10-15 years, the Regionals cannot fill their classes with quality applicants. When the minimums are as low as 650 TT and 50 hours of multi-engine, something is wrong, especially in this job market.

Here is a suggestion. while in the clouds in a regional jet, look out the window and realize that it might be the first time your First Officer has flown in the clouds you see outside. It's happened at Eagle. Enjoy your future rides.

 

[WorldTraveler]

The F/A agreement was ratified on 5/29, with emergence from BK on 5/31...

Not for nothing, but it was a case of third-time's-the-charm. The previous two T/A's were rejected, and of course there was a switch from PFAA to AFA in the middle of it all...

The F/A agreement was ratified on 5/29, with emergence from BK on 5/31...

Not for nothing, but it was a case of third-time's-the-charm. The previous two T/A's were rejected, and of course there was a switch from PFAA to AFA in the middle of it all...

thanks....so was it required to have a revised contract prior to emergence and was emergence contingent on the last TA passing?

 

[bigjets]

Those are but 2 scenarios in about a dozen that could happen. Furthermore, you don't seem to be looking past 8/15.

You question about "who blinks" will most likely not fully be answered for months.

I would guess the judge will abrogate, but then what? Will the company impose ALL of the term sheet items? Some of them? If so, which ones? Will the company impose the LBFO? Will the company temporarily leave everything as is while we negotiate a new deal?

Who knows. The bottom line is, we will not know whether we made out better in the long run until months from now. This may end up being a knock down drag out street fight that could get Eastern like. If you don't think the pilot group is up to it your are sorely mistaken. Not only did the LBFO get shot down by a sizable margin, it did so after weeks of incredibly ONE SIDED lobbying and fear mongering by the union.

We will not back down.

I wish you guys the best of luck, and hope you get everything you deserve.

 

[tom barry]

First off.........Congratulations to the APA...'N O' voters. (APFA, I ..H O P E..you guys are paying close attention, you usually are)

I think I'd get a VAST majority of you (on here) to agree that this BK was as PHONEY as the War in Iraq !
(With $5B in thier 'kick') This was a BK to squeeze as much "AS POSSIBLE" out of the AA labor groups !

(Keep that phrase...'as much..." A S ..POSSIBLE", in the forefront of your mind)
IF APFA "shiit cans" thier TA, the conversation in the AMR Board room will go something like this..............." Yo Tommy(horton), your/our plan only worked with the hog-sucking TUL 'Yes' voters. Time to go to plan B. We are NOT going to risk a SHUTDOWN, or even a CHAOS, cause' we've got 'bigger fish to fry' (B6 anyone).

It's THAT simple, and so far APA knows it, and GOD willing, APFA knows it !!!



PS,
jimntx, would you please supply us with the current # of FA's, base by base.
Thank You !

 

[iluvaa]

Are all yankees dem o crocks tommy

 

[Duke787]

Are all yankees dem o crocks tommy

If AA wants to buy either US airways or Jetblue, AA will have to have a happy pilot group, that is just a fact, chaos or sick outs will play havoc with the airline, and all AA has to do is give TUL a shiny toy and they will vote for any contract, the yankees are the ones who stood up to a bully not TUL, the APA doesn't have a TUL to manipulate.

 

[Jacobin777]

You might look into a statistic for the 5-10 years. How many aircraft are being delivered during that period versus the number of certificated, experienced pilots getting "delivered" onto the job market. Remember to think globally, the pilot job market is now worldwide and getting more so.That was a factor in my NO vote to a contract that could have locked us in for probably a decade. If the vote was ten years ago, I would have voted YES.

I will note that a majority of those companies taking delivery of large aircraft have little interest in Regional pilots, even experienced Captains. Even with the potential to earn 6 figures as an RJ Captain in 10-15 years, the Regionals cannot fill their classes with quality applicants. When the minimums are as low as 650 TT and 50 hours of multi-engine, something is wrong, especially in this job market.

Here is a suggestion. while in the clouds in a regional jet, look out the window and realize that it might be the first time your First Officer has flown in the clouds you see outside. It's happened at Eagle. Enjoy your future rides.

1)Of course there are global opportunities. I already know one AA pilot who went on to a Middle East carrier a few years ago actually...happy from what I hear..
2)Regarding me flying on a regional jet with "inexperienced" pilots, I'm quite confident they will be fine pilots and I really don't have too much concern. Apropos, 95% of my flights are on mainline...

I wish you guys the best of luck, and hope you get everything you deserve.

What's "deserve" here? Maybe one should be careful what one asks for... <_<