WorldTraveler
Corn Field
- Dec 5, 2003
- 21,709
- 10,662
- Banned
- #61
yes, Mach,
with the freeze or termination of DB pension plans, (likely freeze for AA's plans), there is a lot less incentive for AA employees to stick it out until the end.
For alot of AA pilots, exactly the type of situation you note will help keep them going for another 5-10 years or more... and some very well may end up moving to another country.
There are ways to survive major changes in life and succeed. We would all be interested in updates from you about the numbers of AA pilots who just decide to check out.
In the interest of fairness, let me throw in AA and UA’s numbers
AA DFW 61% mainline ops, 86% mainline seats
AA NA 48% mainline ops, 75% mainline seats
US CLT 38% mainline flights; 61% mainline seats
US NA 37% mainline flights; 60% mainline seats
And then look at average number of seats per flight for the primary hub and for N. America
AA DFW 108, NA 100
DL ATL 120, NA 99
UA ORD 85, NA 83
US CLT 95, NA 87
In fact, if you order the size of the regional carrier operation relative to the size of the overall system, the order from largest to smallest would be AA, DL, US, and UA.
Note that DL and UA both have several more hubs and much more national coverage than AA or US.
As is being discussed on the Comair thread on the DL forum, the RJ’s popularity grew as network airlines needed to create nationwide networks from their limited number of hubs.
The rationale for consolidation has long been that it helps reduce the amount of capacity – and less often publicly stated but a clear reality is that consolidation helps remove duplicate hubs.
Consider now that DL has already done a lot of hub rationalization (the reduction of CVG and MEM) while UA clearly has a lot of need to do so. IAH/EWR as HUBS serve the same catchment areas as do CLE/ORD and to a less degree DEN/IAH. But UA has a lot of duplicate capacity left in its network and the size of aircraft at its hubs shows that it has a lot of small gauge, higher CASM capacity that probably needs to be rationalized as evidenced by UA's low average seat number per flight. Consider also that UA's hubs except for NYC are all in larger markets than DL's and it shows that DL is using its RJs to reach smaller markets while UA is using RJs as replacements to alot of mainline markets that DL serves with mainline aircraft.
Add in that DL has already committed to pulling out several hundred 50 seaters and replace them w/ a fewer number of 76 seaters plus mainline aircraft (fewer overall DCI seats) and DL will likely end up with the highest percentage of mainline seats as well as maintain the largest average aircraft size – for all practical purposes it is on par w/ AA right now even though AA has far more RJ restrictions.
UA hasn’t announced exactly what their pilot agreement might look like, but sources say it is very close to DL’s w/ respect to their ability to add large RJs – but whether they have to pull 50 seaters is not clear. Lots more large RJs does not necessarily mean that UA will carry more connecting passengers or add more "spokes" from their hubs. Large RJs are more cost efficient but they do not necessarily grow the network in ways that smaller RJs couldn't have already done.
In either the TA that was shot down or the LBO, AA wanted a lot more large RJs – but note that AA does not have the hubs throughout the country that DL and UA have to add more flights.
US could provide add’l hubs to AA but part of the logic for the merger is that duplicate capacity would be pulled out of the system, thus negating part of the benefit of the large number of RJs.
It also says that part of the reason the AA pilots shot down the TA is because they would have to be further relaxing scope just at the time that DL and UA pilot groups are gaining more control of it.
As w/ many things, AA is several years behind its peers in executing strategies – and part of the ongoing frustration w/ AA labor is that they are being asked to make concessions that others made years before and are beginning to reverse. And while AA has the same strategic reasons to gain the benefits other carriers have already gained, they also are constantly two steps behind other carriers – who are moving on to a new generation of strategies while AA is still struggling to push through the last generation – and to their labor groups, who are gaining benefits as strategies from a previous generation bear fruit.
So, AA’s ability to add more large RJs might help and might make AA’s network look more like its peers, but AA is still chasing strategies that some of its other peers have already benefitted from and are moving on to a new generation of strategies.
with the freeze or termination of DB pension plans, (likely freeze for AA's plans), there is a lot less incentive for AA employees to stick it out until the end.
For alot of AA pilots, exactly the type of situation you note will help keep them going for another 5-10 years or more... and some very well may end up moving to another country.
There are ways to survive major changes in life and succeed. We would all be interested in updates from you about the numbers of AA pilots who just decide to check out.
Interesting. My point is AA has less regional flying than DL & UA (an accepted fact). Sure DL may have less regional than UA but its still more than AA with a more flexible scope permitting operating of economically viable 70+ seat RJs.
Josh
In the interest of fairness, let me throw in AA and UA’s numbers
AA DFW 61% mainline ops, 86% mainline seats
AA NA 48% mainline ops, 75% mainline seats
US CLT 38% mainline flights; 61% mainline seats
US NA 37% mainline flights; 60% mainline seats
And then look at average number of seats per flight for the primary hub and for N. America
AA DFW 108, NA 100
DL ATL 120, NA 99
UA ORD 85, NA 83
US CLT 95, NA 87
In fact, if you order the size of the regional carrier operation relative to the size of the overall system, the order from largest to smallest would be AA, DL, US, and UA.
Note that DL and UA both have several more hubs and much more national coverage than AA or US.
As is being discussed on the Comair thread on the DL forum, the RJ’s popularity grew as network airlines needed to create nationwide networks from their limited number of hubs.
The rationale for consolidation has long been that it helps reduce the amount of capacity – and less often publicly stated but a clear reality is that consolidation helps remove duplicate hubs.
Consider now that DL has already done a lot of hub rationalization (the reduction of CVG and MEM) while UA clearly has a lot of need to do so. IAH/EWR as HUBS serve the same catchment areas as do CLE/ORD and to a less degree DEN/IAH. But UA has a lot of duplicate capacity left in its network and the size of aircraft at its hubs shows that it has a lot of small gauge, higher CASM capacity that probably needs to be rationalized as evidenced by UA's low average seat number per flight. Consider also that UA's hubs except for NYC are all in larger markets than DL's and it shows that DL is using its RJs to reach smaller markets while UA is using RJs as replacements to alot of mainline markets that DL serves with mainline aircraft.
Add in that DL has already committed to pulling out several hundred 50 seaters and replace them w/ a fewer number of 76 seaters plus mainline aircraft (fewer overall DCI seats) and DL will likely end up with the highest percentage of mainline seats as well as maintain the largest average aircraft size – for all practical purposes it is on par w/ AA right now even though AA has far more RJ restrictions.
UA hasn’t announced exactly what their pilot agreement might look like, but sources say it is very close to DL’s w/ respect to their ability to add large RJs – but whether they have to pull 50 seaters is not clear. Lots more large RJs does not necessarily mean that UA will carry more connecting passengers or add more "spokes" from their hubs. Large RJs are more cost efficient but they do not necessarily grow the network in ways that smaller RJs couldn't have already done.
In either the TA that was shot down or the LBO, AA wanted a lot more large RJs – but note that AA does not have the hubs throughout the country that DL and UA have to add more flights.
US could provide add’l hubs to AA but part of the logic for the merger is that duplicate capacity would be pulled out of the system, thus negating part of the benefit of the large number of RJs.
It also says that part of the reason the AA pilots shot down the TA is because they would have to be further relaxing scope just at the time that DL and UA pilot groups are gaining more control of it.
As w/ many things, AA is several years behind its peers in executing strategies – and part of the ongoing frustration w/ AA labor is that they are being asked to make concessions that others made years before and are beginning to reverse. And while AA has the same strategic reasons to gain the benefits other carriers have already gained, they also are constantly two steps behind other carriers – who are moving on to a new generation of strategies while AA is still struggling to push through the last generation – and to their labor groups, who are gaining benefits as strategies from a previous generation bear fruit.
So, AA’s ability to add more large RJs might help and might make AA’s network look more like its peers, but AA is still chasing strategies that some of its other peers have already benefitted from and are moving on to a new generation of strategies.