QUOTE (oscarjazz @ Jul 1 2009, 08:31 PM)
Talk about dancing on the deck of the Titanic. Gentlemen, you need to pay attention to the financial health of your airline. You are bouncing on the cash covenant of the exit financing package. If LCC can't raise cash soon, they will have to start selling stuff. That will not be good for LCC pilots.
USAirways may indeed breach its loan covenants and go TU.
The pilot groups' ability to affect this outcome is pretty close to zero. - Unless we want to do a British Airways and offer to work a month for free. If it comes down to that I would hope that the pilot group would say thanks but no thanks. This profession has taken enough hits and any carrier that can't afford to pay its employees needs to go out of business.
As has been discussed many times before, this battle is doing nothing but positive things for the company's bottom line. Management has a built-in, permanent whipsaw that almost operates itself. Sure, this comes with a few expenses related to irregular operations but overall it is the labor deal of the century.
I believe that the east pilots' belief; that a contract is not coming to a theater near you any time soon, is correct. The company is not desperate to pay us more. The Delta/Northwest merger has already shown what happens when you merge two pilot groups who do not attempt to kill each other; you have to throw a crap load of money at them. A single contract is probably not necessary, or even desirable, as a pretext to another merger.
Everybody keeps saying how this merger proves what a horrible CEO Doug Parker is. The people who financed this merger cashed out and cashed out big. Parker was able to raise cash in November/December and again last month. UAL appears ready to hit pawn shops in Chicago and they look like a better airline on paper than USAir.
We might not necessarily like Parker but don't think for a moment that the investment community shares our disdain. After all, these are the people who believe the sole reason GM, Chrysler and Boeing are in torpedo water is because of organized labor.
When I sober up, I'll deny writing this or blame it on beer. Your both close to right. We're arguing about who has first access to the lifeboats, DOH or NIC. But maybe our arguing is what keeps this place afloat. It gives Parker confidence he wont have to pay for a new contract. His biggest worry is LOA84, costing almost as much as a new contract. He might be able to delay that another 12 months. Maybe better times next summer, who knows. The facts/contract language are on our side for LOA84. Unusual problem with arbitration is not that you may win or lose. Its an arbitrator's ability to split the baby, something that normally doesnt happen in a trial. Arbs have ruled in the past that the cost of a win could BK a company, so they rule for the company, despite facts. Its a rarity, but as we all know, arbitration happens.
This lack of a single contract may be the company deal of the century, but with revenues tanking, the industry near coollapse, the economy near collapse, theres probably never been a worse time to negotiate a single contract. All this $30-$50K loss per year is nonsense. Nothing even close is on the table. Maybe it was 2 years ago, but that was better times. If you want to put blame on not gettting a contract then, put blame where it belongs, with ALPA and the East MEC. USAPA had nothing to do with it.
Parkers financial resiliance is amazing. Writing off $1/2B in oil futures, losing no telling how much in "cash or cash equivalents," plus operational mistakes that roll our eyes. And he still can go to the well for more money. Like in the jungle, he doesnt have to outrun the lion, only outrun 1 or 2 of our competitors. Over the past 2 years I've had a lot of posts wondering if this place will survive. No telling, seems less likely every day. The real gut check will be when Parker runs the ultimate bluff, massive pay cuts or CH7. Don't think he wont. Hes already got "his" stashed away.
Meanwhile, all this East V West is crap. The appeal has to play out in the courts. The MIGS demand it. One naive poster thought, we'll just get everyone to join and we'll recall. That wont happen. The west doesn't have enough votes to join with the small/vocal East minority former ALPA/FPLers. Although its a lot easier to recall under USAPA than ALPA, it wont happen.
More stupid are the constant arguments about who saved who, career expectations, etc. The bottom line on the 9th Circuit court appeal is did the judge error? If he did, there could be a new trial, maybe after the case is ripe, maybe with all the evidence USAPA wanted to bring in. Or the 9th could throw the entire verdict out as a matter of law, not appealable, not re-triable. Or the 9th could sustain the verdict without modification. We're not lawyers, we're pilots. Why continue to fight a legal battle none of us are competent to fight? Its going to play out because thats what the majority wants to happen.
One last beer-talk, as posted, so the plaintiffs want a delay in damages trial to October and now its set for January 2010, tell me, WHO is doing the delaying? Hard to pin that one on USAPA.
