Well Clear, all I can say at this point is we've tried (yet again) to warn you.
So are you telling me my numbers are wrong. That the east does not have 250 per year retirements?
In order for a new hire in the east to make captain in 3. 5 year the east has to attrite 430 per year. Why do you think that is a valid number? Please show your work not just some fantasy. Got any facts?
The spreadsheet I have shows east retirements.
2012 9
2013 150
2014 214
2015 184
2016 230
2017 239
2018 259
2019 259
Total 1544 So it takes until 2019 for the bottom F/O to reach captain. A new hire in 2012 will not upgrade just on attrition for 8 years. If you add in 10%of the retirements for MED and other it is only 151 so half a year earlier. Exactly how is it you think someone will upgrade in 3.5 year and 7 years to the WB?
Keep in mind also what is the other tear that is shed all the time? F/O’s will never upgrade. So by your own admission some about 30-40% will come out of the RIGHT seat. How does that help that 3.5 year new hire upgrade again? Even if it is 30% F/O’s that means after 8 year it is only 1100 captains retired. Still 400 away from upgrade. So add another 2 years. Unless that whole whine about F/O’s never upgrading is not true.
2020 244
2021 249
2022 205
2023 220
2024 162
2025 171
2026124
2027 111
2028 81
2029 55
2030 41
Total after 18 years 3207
10 years from now about half of the east will be gone. At the end of 2030 all current east pilots should be off the property. Is the east willing to wait 10 years at LOA 93 wages? Why would anyone want to get hired at US Air at the current wages knowing that it will still take 8 years to upgrade to make $125 per hour?
The east pilots had better start to look at facts and start to figure out that your actions are hurting yourselves and what you take as truth is nothing more that crew room myth.
P.S. My mistake the east does not average 250 retirements per year it is 203 over the next 10 years. And 194 over the next 15 years.