US Airways Pilots Labor Thread 4/15-4/22

[EastUS]

And we were within two weeks of TA'ing a contract when Nic came out and the east bailed on negs because they didn't want to implement the list.

More wasted than just stomach lining.

Indeed. From the very beginning of time itself; All evils in this world have exclusively issued forth from the Evil East. Whew! That didn't take long to restart

 

[NiceLandingCaptain]

What the heck ! ! ! Is this a group hug happening here? :blush:

 

[Metroyet]

What the heck ! ! ! Is this a group hug happening here? :blush:

Not likely...

 

[nostradamus]

A lot of speculation posted on this message thread regarding USAPA.


"The reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated." Mark Twain

 

[ussnark]

I think when the verdict comes in and is implemented, you'll find that there was alot of anxiety over nothing. Some folks will lose, most will stay nearly the same, and there may be a handful of winners.

Alot of wasted somach lining over nothing.

I wouldn't consider 1800 pilots a "handful".

 

[ussnark]

but the west's theory is that the higher CASM of the east has spread to the west like the plague, and I disagree.

The higher East CASM has spread in that the whole airline has to average a higher RASM than the West did alone to achieve a given financial result. In economic conditions like we're experiencing now, increasing the average RASM means operating fewer low RASM flights - raising fares is not the answer when the the question is how low to drop fares to keep load factors up. So the higher CASM East brought to the merger results in cutting more West flights than East since a larger percentage of the lower RASM flights are in the West because of all the competition with WN. So in that sense it is like a plague that initially appeared in the East system but the symptoms are now affecting the West system.

Jim

You seem to be treating an adaptive tactical move to counter adverse economic effects (killing marginally and unproductive segments in a down environment) as a disease. Also, all the discussion about CASM and RASM ignores the only important measure, that of yield, on each segment. The east CASM did not magically migrate west because the final measure is mostly based on a segment by segment yield.

Extrapolating any average, CASM, for instance, usually can lead one into misguided statements like I see in this thread.

 

[ussnark]

And we were within two weeks of TA'ing a contract when Nic came out and the east bailed on negs because they didn't want to implement the list.

More wasted than just stomach lining.

ALPA National told me, several days before the "nic" came out, that we "months" away from any kind of merged contract, not even counting the "separately ratified" part. Interesting how apart we are. Would you be willing to name names where you got that "information"?

As a side note, I wonder what part ALPA played in this, um, rather global misinformation?

 

[Pacemaker]

You seem to be treating an adaptive tactical move to counter adverse economic effects (killing marginally and unproductive segments in a down environment) as a disease. Also, all the discussion about CASM and RASM ignores the only important measure, that of yield, on each segment. The east CASM did not magically migrate west because the final measure is mostly based on a segment by segment yield.

Extrapolating any average, CASM, for instance, usually can lead one into misguided statements like I see in this thread.

I think what really matters at the end of the day is total revenue - total cost, not yield because though important it ignores the other side of the equation.

I can't explain any better than anyone else here the "USAir effect" of seeming to spread high costs. It seemed to happen the same way with PSA & Piedmont. All of the former and a good one-half of the latter couldn't make it anymore and went away. Maybe it would have happened without the mergers anyway.

 

[BoeingBoy]

Also, all the discussion about CASM and RASM ignores the only important measure, that of yield, on each segment.

Since yield is one of the components of RASM, it's not ignored - it's just not the "only important measure" you claim it to be since it is only one component of revenue/mile. Which produces more revenue - having a $3.00 yield on a flight but only selling 2 tickets or having a $0.50 yield but selling 100 tickets?

The east CASM did not magically migrate west because the final measure is mostly based on a segment by segment yield.

Nothing magical about it, just mathematics. HP's significantly lower CASM could be covered by a significantly lower RASM pre-merger. Post-merger LCC's significantly higher CASM requires a significantly higher RASM to achieve the same financial results. With the economy depress, how to raise RASM? Can't increase fares significantly or traffic drops even further. Can't add any additional ancillary fees - tried that with sodas/water but had to back off because of competitive pressures. What's left? Drop lower RASM flights to increase the average RASM. Flights that may have been breakeven or slightly profitable for HP alone but are money losers for LCC.

If by "final measure" you mean CASM, you might want to study the subject. System mainline CASM is just total operating expenses (generally excluding Express expenses) divided by ASM's (again excluding Express ASM's). If a "consolidated" CASM is put in the quarterly reports (like DL for example) it merely included express expenses and ASM's. There is no leg by leg CASM that is averaged to get the system CASM, and for a very simple reason - too much variability on a daily or even hourly basis.

Airlines are one of the few businesses that don't know pretty accurately what it will cost to produce their product before it's produced. A CLT-EWR flight may operate with no delays in the morning but hold airborne for 30 minutes in the afternoon. A PHL-LAX flight may have less headwind today than tomorrow. Until a flight is completed, it's impossible to say what the CASM for that flight will be. So even for a specific flight averages are all that have any real meaning.

Jim

 

[Megasnoop]

---We interrupt this tirade by our most prolific poster for this important new bulletin---

Prechi, that kind of remark is what a number of us on both sides of the board are attempting to stop.

This just in from the bureau of labor statistics- North Carolina has their highest unemployment rate ever. It is now fifth highest among states in unemployment- 10.5%.

Inaccurate. NC unemployment rate: 16% in 1939 (thats as far back as BLS go state-by-state). 11% in August 1974.

All that is left for Parker is to merge or go bankrupt.

If its with UAL, theyd be smart to get out of ALPA right now, unless they want a NIC-type list. If they want DOH, ALPA Merger Policy isnt the way to go. Maybe they have a younger pilot group and a NIC list works for them. If we merge with UAL, I think ALPA comes back on property without an NMB election based on its pilot number. What a can of worms, especially if the NIC is still in Appeal Limbo.

So, in two weeks, I opine that any seniority integration issue will have to be addressed by the court which will have the least financial impact on the company, as Wake has already intimated in he will consider in pretrial court papers.

Two weeks plus appeals, Lil.

A merger will bring about a few things. One is increased liquidity. ANother is excess employees, probably as much as 1,500 pilots in the flight department. Based on Nicolau, this would mean about 1,100 of those extra jobs are sitting out east.

You cant have it both ways. You say both sides have to obey the NIC, becuase of the contract between ALPA and the company (the TA). If so, then the TA (contract) is in force until a new contract is voted in. You really think theres an East majority out there that is going to vote for its own furloughs and downgrades?

Though I agree there is the potential for USAirways to file chapter 7 I don't think that the protracted labor dispute is having a negative effect.

Agree. They still screw up even without our "help."

ALPA and the company were close enough to an agreement, that had it been pursued, it would have been consummated prior to the economic meltdown. That was a different world with different pay possibilities. The labor strife has saved the company quite a bit.

Were hearing that a lot this week, two weeks to an agreement. Not much proof, especially since the company didnt even lay out its financial proposal until AFTER the NIC. Too bad the company didnt put that on the table a month, if it actually existed, BEFORE the NIC. They dragged it out. After the NIC, they couldnt have gotten 10% yes-vote from the East. Snoop

 

[Megasnoop]

Implementing the Nic award would be a tremendous burden to US Airways. 175 west furloughed pilots would have to be recalled and retrained for east positions and additional east pilots would be furloughed and paid pretty large furlough pay, so be careful what you wish for with the judge taking the company's health in to account.

I think that depends on the results of the trial. Worst case for the company is a West win followed by the judges wholesale trashing of the TA "no flush, no bump" language. Or a crazy ruling that the company implement the NIC with recalls and additional furloughs as you argued.

It must be rough living life so bitter and wanting doom for your co-workers.

Your right, Pi. Its been quite a sight to watch.

If you take the lower CASM side (West) that's making do against WN, then add the high CASM side (East), something has to support the resulting high CASM. When the economy turns south, it's the low RASM flights that go since they're reducing the average RASM the most.

CASM, RASM, SPASM, CRASM! Im totally confused. Maybe Im missing a point here, but arent East Pilot CASMs lower than Wests? Not sure about East/West FA CASMs, but arent all the other work group CASMs already neutralized by virtue of a fairly seemless operation?

With a few exceptions, this forum just brings out the worst in all of us. I know it does with me, more than I would like. It won't necessarily be pretty always, but we'll all live through it and be all right.

No doubt it does. I attempt to be factual, but keep running up against the likes of xxxxxx, et al, who delight in out-of-context, often non-factual gottchas. As Ive said so many times, however this ends (after all the appeals are in), Ill accept it not only de jure, but mentally as well. Not sure that goes with the majority of either side.

And we were within two weeks of TA'ing a contract when Nic came out and the east bailed on negs because they didn't want to implement the list.

More wasted than just stomach lining.

Agree with the stomach lining thing for some of you, TOGA, but 2 weeks from a TA? The company didnt even present its final wage/cost package until a week AFTER the NIC. Are you saying ALPA had a secret cram-down plan already in place?

Granted, with the NIC in the back pocket, I cant imagine a single west pilot not agreeing to even West status quo. But back East, not sure if wed gone for that. Snoop

 

[BoeingBoy]

I think what really matters at the end of the day is total revenue - total cost, not yield because though important it ignores the other side of the equation.

And you'd be correct - though yield also ignores the effect of load factor on the revenue side of the equation. The "per available seat mile" part is just a way of using the same units for all airlines regardless of the size. Otherwise, you could look at AA's expenses compared to US and say that AA is a higher cost airline since expenses are greater. But AA's CASM is lower than US'. The same is true on the revenue side - AA has higher total revenues but a lower RASM than US.

Jim

 

[cleardirect]

Implementing the Nic award would be a tremendous burden to US Airways. 175 west furloughed pilots would have to be recalled and retrained for east positions and additional east pilots would be furloughed and paid pretty large furlough pay, so be careful what you wish for with the judge taking the company's health in to account.

No worries. The great and powerful usapa will win the grievances. The block hours, third list and RJ excess.

That should bring back the furloughs and shift them to the proper side. It has nothing to do with the trial.

 

[UtterlyUdder]

With a few exceptions, this forum just brings out the worst in all of us. I know it does with me, more than I would like. It won't necessarily be pretty always, but we'll all live through it and be all right.

You're right. The one thing so many of you forget is that this is a public forum and people such as myself can read it.......and post on it. So the impressions we get of you is how and what you write. This is not "your" forum, it belongs to the public too. (By "your", I don't mean you specifically, no offense meant).

I have formed my opinions of each of you by simply reading what you write. I have a vested interest in USAir (I refuse to say AIRWAYS!) and that is why I come here to read about what is going on. Sometimes I think I should take up a hobby and forget about this. I can't.

I am sure if many of you with few exceptions, gave a thought to how you come across to the public, then you might not write in the vein you choose to. Again, I don't mean you specifically. I mean most of the people on the airline who post here, especially on this topic.

I am not a school teacher so I won't rap knuckles.

Cordially yours,

UU

 

[UtterlyUdder]

And we were within two weeks of TA'ing a contract when Nic came out and the east bailed on negs because they didn't want to implement the list.

More wasted than just stomach lining.

Hasn't this very dead horse been beaten to death several times already? Nobody will know what is going to happen until the fat lady sings. I know, I know, Judge Wake is not a lady and is probably not fat either. Until that time, the useless carping back and forth serves no one except to make for an impossible situation down the road.

You have to be a few circles outside of this fray to see how mean-spirited and futile this thread is.

The few times I post here I usually get my head handed to me but then I consider the source and move on with my day. It is apparent to me that most of you can't move on an inch and the opinions here are set in granite.

I think you all need a hall monitor and maybe I should take that job. The pay sucks but maybe after a few trips to the principal...........also me, things just might become more civil here.

UU