Uh, what was the topic?....
Bears, should AA merge with AS? Hell no. As I've said before when mergers come up, AA would be better off sitting this round out, if it even comes to fruition. CAL can't merge without NWA's blessing, UAL isn't all that attractive as a partner (as Jamie Baker stated so elloquently this week, "mediocracy will suffice"), and DAL is even uglier.
AA could easily duplicate most if not all of AS's domestic operation already, with the exception of Horizon. If inter-Alaska flying were really all that profitable, there'd be someone else doing it. As it is, large chunks of it are flown by glorified air-taxi's, and the rest is essentially unsubsidized essential air service that AS has to operate to remain in political favor with the powers at be....
Union representation: I seriously doubt there'd be a 35% card turnout in any of the workgroups other than perhaps M&R. Flight attendants may not like APFA, but AFA has been a dismal failure since their "merger" with CWA (which was really a lifeline to keep AFA from going insolvent). ALPA has done marginally better, but I don't see enough discourse within the AA pilot ranks to carry a 35% vote. As already noted, IAM was decimated at AS when the hubs were outsourced (as opposed to everyone else's approach to outsource the outstations...).
Even with the M&R group... There might be a vote, but AS's overhaul doesn't exist anymore if I recall, so AMFA represented line mechanics can't possibly number more than about 5% of AA's mechanics. I wouldn't want to put odds on that one either way, but if I had to, it would be another close call in the TWU's favor (especially if AMFA settles at NWA -- about the only thing they can say that they won was some severence pay...).
On the topic of pension liability, the $2.6B in underfunding is calculated at estimated rates of return. If the underlying securities happen to perform better than the estimated rates, the underfunding could feasibly be cut by $500M to $1B without a dime of make-up contributions from AMR.
There are other variables: as people like me bail out (thus freezing our pensions), that future liability shrinks. To the extent that management and agents are replaced by people who aren't in the defined benefit program, it shrinks even more.