Some experts say, from their crystal ball, that without a new strategic direction and significant change at AA and US, they will contiue on the slow path to BK, pre- package for AA, and BK liguidation for US.
The strategic direction, shrinking to profitibility, and labour unrest will help to assist these two companies to failure.
AA/US merger would probility be a major mistake. with the fleet type problems a give me, Boeing Vs. Airbus, parts supply, equipment, training and hanger facilities for overhaul of the Airbus fleet, if it were kept in-house, or contract out like US current does. The AA ground service employee union would probility want to keep the new Airbus fleet maintenance in-house, where the AA would rather contract it out to the lowest bidder and even have AA maintenance union bid on the work.
The AA flight crews would have to get use to the left and right seat joysticks and flyby wire design/feel touch control, flight deck layout and aircraft performance, execpt for some of the military reserve pilots, the flight deck layout and aircraft performance would be their only concern, since most military non-transport aircraft are joystick and flybe wire design.
For the AA flight attendants, the Airbus doors operation, cabin layout and the flight attendant/ maintenance panel at the forward entry door would be some what of a safety concern, because the different from the Boeing design passenger door operation and the emergency power assist which is similar to the B-752.
The US personnal would probility not work a B-772, thats is flight or cabin crews. the ground crew may if a AA B-772 where to be routed in and out of PHL or CLT.
The unions intergration of a AA/US merger would be a disaster. AA unions would perfer to staple US unions employee to the bottom of the AA unions senority list. and US employee would perfer date of hire. AA unions already have a set practices, but since the United States Congress passed labor laws after the TWA disaster, the AA unions will fight to get the lowest intergation plan possible, because the AA unions employee would say that US bring minimal amount of assets to AA.
A AA/B6 merger deal would probility be the same, with the fleet type and crew manning problems, but the unions intergartion problem would be minimal because AA unions could give B6 at the max their date of hire, since most of B6 employees have no more than a company hire date of 1999, which would effect the lowest part of the AA unions senority list . the best thing for the B6 employees to retain their employement would possibility be join Oneworld alliance and stay with their business model, which does not fit with AA bussiness model.
With the DL/NW and the UA/CO merger deals. AA look like they maybe lacking about 20 B-773er, 25 B-763er and /or B-764er, 150 B-738 and/or B-739er in capacity, with AA removal of the 30+ A-300 and the 300+ MD- 80s from the fleet, with the reduce capacity AA will be at a disadvantage to compete on the international and domestic routes. AA does not have the creditworthly to finance these acquisition, but they do have the creditworthly to finance a merger with a carrier with WB long range and NB domestic aircraft, through TPG, since TPG and AA were going to assist JAL financing to stay in Oneworld.
AA will still be at a disadvantage to the business customer to more business markets, because DL and the new UA will have more Europe and Asia/Pacific business market choices and frequencies for the higher yielding business travelers, and both DL and UA can still rely on their alliance members and AA would have to rely on their alliance member very heavy, which puts AA at a financial disadvantage to DL and UA in the international markets by contracting out to their Oneworld members and the domestic markets opportunities will be under serve due to AA size.
