AA and Labor Negotiations-2020

[CremaDiLimone]

Well it’s not a matter of if AA files just when.
Everything I’m reading they can’t sustain this kind of debt forever and the passenger numbers are just not coming back anytime soon
Don’t like the doom an gloom either but there comes a time when one must face reality

- if aa files because not enough pax are generating revenues, then the others will also do the same. it's not as if everyone else will get all the traffic. past fiscal behavior, well-guided or misguided, has absolutely no relevance to what happened with the cares act...as we said.

for the moment, we are ok. we discussed this..you don't remember? the govt. came forward with a plan, the airlines met them and no layoffs, no bk. for the moment - no reduction in hours for us aa FTers.

you don't remember? remember the ones that were incredulous that we can form opinion and challenged that? pan am and esprit de corps?

i work in a hub. today, we had some training. the trainer told us that in june, we're looking at apprx. 110 flights a day...says ticket sales equal to apprx. 60% load factor.

not going to get us out of the woods, but much, much better than this first week of may. we had 30 flights today - all mainline, no eagle.

 

[ALUS78]

what did they say about GE? i believe GE has nearly $90 billion of debt??

Any of the big 4 liquidate what happens to Boeing ,Airbus, GE, RR Pratt and suppliers? Any of the big 4 file for 11 they would have an advantage over the others just ask the last few CEOs of AA

 

[ALUS78]

Debt is not really a concern now it is cash flow.

Debt is reworked all the time, pushed back "creditors you dont want to work with us Fuq you we'll go chapter 11 and you get pennies on the dollar" then AA could fly around for the next 50 years. I've been through 2 bankruptcies I'm still here

 

[Kev3188]

-
i work in a hub. today, we had some training. the trainer told us that in june, we're looking at apprx. 110 flights a day...says ticket sales equal to apprx. 60% load factor.

60% LF on what percent of normal capacity?

 

[eolesen]

60% LF on what percent of normal capacity?

Exactly. A 60% load factor adjusted to reflect last year's capacity is probably going to work out to anywhere between 5-30% depending on how deep the cuts at your station were...

 

[swamt]

No mention of GE. But they think Spirit n AA are in the most dire esp 2nd qtr if losses are equal or worse than 1st qrtr

I'm thinking and expecting worse 2nd Q than 1st Q. Maybe not so much for the international flyers as they were pulling back first and earlier. As far as SWA I think worse 2nd Q if these flights are not picking up soon.

 

[CremaDiLimone]

60% LF on what percent of normal capacity?

as i said in my post, not going to us out of the woods.

i asked the same question and don't know the exact number of flights this time last year, but i believed it to be around 200 a day mainline...maybe 190-195. pre-virus, the goal was 250 mainline flights a day out of my hub for the summer of 2020.

so, say 60% load factor off of 40%-45% less seats out of one hub for june of 2020 is not going to get us out of the woods.

but, it is much, much better than the first week of may 2020. we had 30 flights out of our hub yesterday, all mainline.

 

[CremaDiLimone]

Any of the big 4 liquidate what happens to Boeing ,Airbus, GE, RR Pratt and suppliers? Any of the big 4 file for 11 they would have an advantage over the others just ask the last few CEOs of AA

agree. think about it. the govt. doesn't intervene, all file.

2 BKs in 10 years for aa, 2 in 15 years for dl and ua. good luck getting financing for anything, after screwing the banks twice out of billions.

the govt. won't sit back and allow that to happen. that's my take on what trump, pence and mnuchin said and why it applied from april-sept 2020. maybe crandall was/is on to something. make the airlines like the utility companies.

many in the public don't understand how could the airlines have so much debt and they bought back stock. publicly traded companies, the shareholders will get their share..this is the usa. like it or not, that's how it works. shareholder value.

no airline can have zero debt and always posses $20 billion in the bank to rot, just in case of any unknown emergency/crisis.

 

[V.O. Reason]

- if aa files because not enough pax are generating revenues, then the others will also do the same. it's not as if everyone else will get all the traffic. past fiscal behavior, well-guided or misguided, has absolutely no relevance to what happened with the cares act...as we said.

for the moment, we are ok. we discussed this..you don't remember? the govt. came forward with a plan, the airlines met them and no layoffs, no bk. for the moment - no reduction in hours for us aa FTers.

you don't remember? remember the ones that were incredulous that we can form opinion and challenged that? pan am and esprit de corps?

i work in a hub. today, we had some training. the trainer told us that in june, we're looking at apprx. 110 flights a day...says ticket sales equal to apprx. 60% load factor.

not going to get us out of the woods, but much, much better than this first week of may. we had 30 flights today - all mainline, no eagle.

I will say one thing I look at is since many lenders are allowing for non payments for a few months I wonder if they will workout this for the airlines.
I mean the last thing the lenders want is a bunch of parked airplanes nobody wants or needs.
That is the one thing maybe in our favor that everyone is having the same issues

 

[robbedagain]

I'm thinking and expecting worse 2nd Q than 1st Q. Maybe not so much for the international flyers as they were pulling back first and earlier. As far as SWA I think worse 2nd Q if these flights are not picking up soon.

Im probably goin out on a limb here but i believe the 2nd qtr will be more of heavier losses bec of the virus n given its typically one of the most profitable quarters for the industry but we shall see

 

[JREwing]

And the first quarter losses were realistically only late February and March. January basically wasn't affected. BUCKLE UP.

 

[ALUS78]

as i said in my post, not going to us out of the woods.

i asked the same question and don't know the exact number of flights this time last year, but i believed it to be around 200 a day mainline...maybe 190-195. pre-virus, the goal was 250 mainline flights a day out of my hub for the summer of 2020.

so, say 60% load factor off of 40%-45% less seats out of one hub for june of 2020 is not going to get us out of the woods.

but, it is much, much better than the first week of may 2020. we had 30 flights out of our hub yesterday, all mainline.

I'm not looking at bookings or flights from a year ago we might not see those numbers for years.Im looking at 4 weeks ago when we were boarding 30,000 passengers a day tomorrow the number is approaching 80,000. Just taking it a day at a time and hoping I also realize the situation is dire.As I said before the country is in lock down there is nothing to fly to

 

[ALUS78]

And the first quarter losses were realistically only late February and March. January basically wasn't affected. BUCKLE UP.

AA gave $900 million in refunds alone in 1st quarter 230 million charge for new association contract.There are going to be a lot of charges in the coming quarters Huge charges

 

[ALUS78]

Exactly. A 60% load factor adjusted to reflect last year's capacity is probably going to work out to anywhere between 5-30% depending on how deep the cuts at your station were...

Southwest's Kelly said SW only going to book their planes 3/4 full so what does that do to load factors

 

[ALUS78]

I'm not looking at bookings or flights from a year ago we might not see those numbers for years.Im looking at 4 weeks ago when we were boarding 30,000 passengers a day tomorrow the number is approaching 80,000. Just taking it a day at a time and hoping I also realize the situation is dire.As I said before the country is in lock down there is nothing to fly to

System bookings for tomorrow went up 1200 pax in the last 2 hours..who knows