robbedagain
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I say this bec the expectations is for a second wave cld be worse n if air travel doesn't pick up. Otherwise i hope ur right. I tend to think the worst n hope for best
AA and Labor Negotiations-2020
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Kev3188
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40-50% is certainly possible (at all carriers). The question is, how do retirements, and VLOAs help offset that number?
eolesen
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The cuts on 30-50% assume a lot of traffic returns.
Based on coverage of the various earnings calls, that's still not happening. They're all hoping "pent up demand" will result in bookings, but everyone I'm hearing from says they're driving if they go anywhere... Nobody is talking about going to a beach resort in the islands, or on a cruise. Theme parks may not open for months. Some businesses won't allow people to go to conferences or overseas because of liability. Europe? Asia? Brasil? Forget that for the rest of 2020.
By my guess, there may be 5x as many workers as there is work for airports and flight crews right now. Figure out where that 50% mark is, and assume everyone below it hits the street. If travel doesn't pick up, move it up by 5% a month between now and October...
Based on coverage of the various earnings calls, that's still not happening. They're all hoping "pent up demand" will result in bookings, but everyone I'm hearing from says they're driving if they go anywhere... Nobody is talking about going to a beach resort in the islands, or on a cruise. Theme parks may not open for months. Some businesses won't allow people to go to conferences or overseas because of liability. Europe? Asia? Brasil? Forget that for the rest of 2020.
By my guess, there may be 5x as many workers as there is work for airports and flight crews right now. Figure out where that 50% mark is, and assume everyone below it hits the street. If travel doesn't pick up, move it up by 5% a month between now and October...
robbedagain
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Thats the true unknown right now. Today Etihad and Emirates both said passengers traffic wont be pre virus level for 3 years. On par w what DL said.
eolesen
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The unknown is how fast things recover, and the media driven fear mongering seems to want to keep people afraid of leaving their homes.
What's known is right now, there are too many employees for too few flights and too few customers. I don't think any airline can afford to wait another four or five months to address it. It might be cheaper to give CARES money back and start layoffs.
What's known is right now, there are too many employees for too few flights and too few customers. I don't think any airline can afford to wait another four or five months to address it. It might be cheaper to give CARES money back and start layoffs.
I know we're dealing with AA management here..but don't you think they may have ran that scenario already before accepting the money?
V.O. Reason
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Wonder where all the guys on here that wished Kirby was still at AA.
Just ask UA how they feel about him
Just ask UA how they feel about him
no they just saw lots of zeros and couldn't help them selves?
come October lets revisit this one. seriously after 9/11 and for quite a while i personally was of the opinion that i would take a little less so someone else could stay employed i.e. less hours or less pay. all the old guys said the same thing it never works out, they take it and layoff anyway. time has proven them correct, like the last 15 years. ESPECIALLY the fiasco of the last 5 years in negotiations. anything we give them will be pissed away and taken for granted. there is no way i will "share the pain to share the gain" fu*k them. we have heard all the bullsh*t slogans and promises not interested anymore. as far as "no one could have predicted this" you are correct. but in life you plan for the bad times during the good times. all the bullsh*t "its good debt" "stock buy backs are a bargain" is just legal looting the yuppie way. no i have no sympathy they could have spent the last 5 years building good will negotiating in good faith and doing the right thing. they chose not to. the emperor still has no clothes on.
eolesen
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Depends on who you ask. I think more people may be questioning why the IAM had language in the current contract allowing FT to be cut to 20 hours.
Is it Kirby’s fault that clause existed? No. It existed long before he arrived, and I’m sure nobody on either side ever saw a situation where it would be invoked...
Honestly, it takes balls for management to ask for help, listen to the IAM say they wouldn’t offer relief even in this type of a situation, and then be able to use existing contract language to get arguably immediate and better relief.
How did IAM not foresee this?... Did the leadership not know their own contract, or did they just not expect management to have the guts to pull that lever?
Could not agree more. It will be interesting to see what the mess of the association will do. Personally i would be ok with semi retirement at 20 hours a week. Be a little tight but ill survive
V.O. Reason
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I don’t think any of the contracts have PT numbers for maint
The UA fleet contract is poorly written and unlike ours doesn’t have PT caps
Kev3188
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^This^
This is for ramp and passenger service both. I haven’t seen any discussion of UA is doing with other workgroups on the property.
