AA and Labor Negotiations-2020

[1986Mekanic]

I hope so too, but based on current death rates it’s about 1 percent which is right in line with flu rate deaths
That is based on the fact there have been more asymptotic then they first thought

It is not 1%.....
The fact is those that become infected approximately 5.4% die.

http://ncov2019.live (gotta do math on that one
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

The asymptomatic piece has not been proven yet, that info comes from 2 small studies in La County and Santa Clara county we would need widespread testing to prove that piece.

But hey, everyone that wants a test can get one right? I went to the drive through test yesterday and they turned me away, said they didn't have enough test to check people that don't have symptoms.

 

[Kev3188]

Kev., Are you hearing any kind of numbers from Delta what they think the airline might look like in the future? 10, 20 or say 30% smaller? And maybe the employee number reflect the same % as size in reduction of company size?? Is this why you are optimistic about the 20% guess from him??? I would hate to see a 30-40% reduction in employees, that's a bit large.

Nothing concrete, but the C-Suite has been very clear in stating that we will come out of this a lot smaller.

The problem is that when you are sitting at home either on leave (like I have) or self isolating, all you hear is bad news. You try to tune out and do something to take your mind of the present situation, but you can't since everything around you is not normal in any sense.

Not trying to be all "woo woo" about things, but there's still joy in the world. Sometimes, it's in places you'd least expect.

unfortunately, i believe some are pulling for the economy to collapse and have to power to further shut down the economy/stoke fear, they want trump's economy to crash and burn for november's vote.

I believe that's a false message being used to condition opinion.

 

[1986Mekanic]

Fact is, trumps economy has already crashed and burned

 

[dfw gen]

It is not 1%.....
The fact is those that become infected approximately 5.4% die.

http://ncov2019.live (gotta do math on that one
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

The asymptomatic piece has not been proven yet, that info comes from 2 small studies in La County and Santa Clara county we would need widespread testing to prove that piece.

But hey, everyone that wants a test can get one right? I went to the drive through test yesterday and they turned me away, said they didn't have enough test to check people that don't have symptoms.

Just curious if you have no symptoms, why get tested? Sounds like you are staying safe keep doing what your doing until you Come down with symptoms then get tested

 

[1AA]

Fact is, trumps economy has already crashed and burned

Hate to spoil your party but it's all our economy. Every single US working person is affected by what's happening.

 

[dfw gen]

Fact is, trumps economy has already crashed and burned

trump will be fine its the little peons that i worry about....

 

[V.O. Reason]

It is not 1%.....
The fact is those that become infected approximately 5.4% die.

http://ncov2019.live (gotta do math on that one
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

The asymptomatic piece has not been proven yet, that info comes from 2 small studies in La County and Santa Clara county we would need widespread testing to prove that piece.

But hey, everyone that wants a test can get one right? I went to the drive through test yesterday and they turned me away, said they didn't have enough test to check people that don't have symptoms.

Believe whatever propaganda you choose but besides those two studies all 3700 passengers were tested on the cruise ship in Japan way back in the beginning of this mess and 750 or so tested positive
Of those positive test over 300 plus had no symptoms and never showed any.
So yes the rate of death even if it’s only 2 percent is not huge.
1 death is to many but how many will die because of not having a job or healthcare or being evicted from their homes because we maintain a closed off economy.
Every single industry with few exceptions are being harmed by this shutdown and airlines are at the top of that.

 

[ALUS78]

Another bailout is very unlikely from what I’ve been reading.
I suspect there will be several bankruptcy filings and one or two outright chapter 7s
This industry is changed forever over fear of a virus that is no worse in my opinion than the seasonal flu

What airline do you think will go 7 liquidate? Any of the big 4 going will likely result in Boeing going into 11 lord knows how many suppliers

 

[dfw gen]

What airline do you think will go 7 liquidate? Any of the big 4 going will likely result in Boeing going into 11 lord knows how many suppliers

hmm...which airline has the most debt? which airline has the most employees? which airline has the most bloated management ranks? which airline frivolously spent 1/2 billion on new headquarters? which airline was the most aggressive in taking advantage of good debt? which airline was the most aggressive in stock buy backs? which airline has the most praised management in the business? which airline decided in a customer service industry to hose their employees and drag their feet on doing the right thing in the most profitable period in aviation history? which airline decided that building goodwill with their employees is too expensive? i just dont know, all i can say is thank goodness "we will never lose money again!"

 

[1AA]

Way too much speculation at this time. True the airlines need to plan ahead. AA is not an airline run with visionary ideas. It's about a fast buck and short term success. With that October is short term from now and if all the airlines struggle well into the fall it's possible that there may be multiple airlines in the BK courts reorganizing again. American, Delta, United and the smaller ones like Southwest and JetBlue will be struggling along with the legacy carriers. Not sure how Alaska, Spirit or Frontier will survive.
Most legacy carriers and analysts have said that the majors will end up downsizing 40% until things pick up again. Plan for the worse and hope for the best.

 

[eolesen]

There won't be another bailout like we just saw. Airlines simply can't afford the governments terms (maintaining employment levels, maintaining service to every city served pre-Corona) and the other industries being impacted won't sit back and let it happen. They have lobbyists, too...

I'd expect a 40% reduction at the Big Three (WN does not want to lay off people because they've never had to do it, and somehow think that's a streak worth protecting), and it won't be pretty.

Don't hold your breath on buyouts. The airline's cash flow won't allow cash incentives to sweeten the pot. They'll use the opposite approach -- furlough the junior guys, rebid everything, and make the older guys work harder. Get a few of those weekend's off rocking chair assignments working for real, and they'll start to turn their papers in without any cash needed...

I hope so too, but based on current death rates it’s about 1 percent which is right in line with flu rate deaths
That is based on the fact there have been more asymptotic then they first thought

Yep. Everyone has their panties in a wad over the Johns Hopkins numbers, but they don't include asymptomatic who never got tested, and there's increasing data coming out that suggests many, many times more people have had this without showing symptoms. Right now the denominator only has tested cases. Start to increase that by 2-5x, and the mortality rate quickly drops below 1%...

What's not being disclosed by so many of the states is how many of these deaths are from nursing homes or assisted living facilities. Someone looked at that in Minnesota and 65 of the 87 deaths as of last week were from nursing homes.

The health folks are predicting when it comes back in winter itll be worse.

No, actually, they're not. Context matters more than headlines here. Multiple officials clarified this today -- detection will be worse because you also have regular flu and colds to contend with for diagnosing. Some people never see their doctor with flu symptoms (which again supports the growing case that there are far more people who had it than the government's data shows).

 

[robbedagain]

E. Ive heard the top infection specialist n the top us surgeon gen n host of other cdc n health officials say when it comes back itll be much worse. But i do agree that there are those who are or were asymptomatic n not show signs. Theres not a lot they know. We have had some in my station tested positive n 1 hospitalized. That individual is thankfully on the upmend. Hopefully there be a vaccine soon. I do believe there will be furloughs. But i fear itll be bigger than 40% given if what will be true w what DL ceo said 2 to 3 yr recovery. Itll be painfully long

 

[CremaDiLimone]

I believe that's a false message being used to condition opinion.

many messages out there: first it was where are the ventilators? then it was, trump wasted time and is not listening to his scientists and now it's testing.

all under the pretext that we care for you..the tv people who earn 6 or 7 figures yearly and can work from home in a jiffy.

as it turns out, i never heard of one virus patient who died due to a lack of a ventilator. then it was explained that the fed stockpile is the back-up stockpile. the states were caught in what appears to be malfeasance. the state of new york was advised by it's own health dept. to purchase x-amount (16,000 i believe) of ventilators in 2015. money was spent on other agenda.

i heard fauci saying during the last week of january that this virus isn't an issue for americans, as of yet (that moment - last week of jan). it appears that trump listened to him and downplayed the virus in ways that only trump can. trump listened to a scientist. as it turns out, dr. fauci and co. were misled by the who and china. granted, trump says dumb things.

now, we are at testing. dr. fauci has scoffed at those screaming for millions and millions of tests. even gov. cuomo said that you can't do massive testing until the hospitals are empty of virus patients. you can't test 330 million americans every day for 14 days.

it's clear to me that both sides are doing operations that are purely political in an election year - the left side needs to make trump look bad and the right side needs to make trump look good.

people can make up their own mind. i believe that in 10-15 years, historians will say that the govt. overreacted. the govt. had no choice, you can't appear to be president grim reaper to your citizens and do nothing (as england nearly did with the herd immunity theory). your political opponents would be voted in, in every election for the next 10 years.

 

[CremaDiLimone]

Fact is, trumps economy has already crashed and burned

it crashed, hasn't burned..yet.

if it burns, we'll know. everyone will know.

 

[ALUS78]

hmm...which airline has the most debt? which airline has the most employees? which airline has the most bloated management ranks? which airline frivolously spent 1/2 billion on new headquarters? which airline was the most aggressive in taking advantage of good debt? which airline was the most aggressive in stock buy backs? which airline has the most praised management in the business? which airline decided in a customer service industry to hose their employees and drag their feet on doing the right thing in the most profitable period in aviation history? which airline decided that building goodwill with their employees is too expensive? i just dont know, all i can say is thank goodness "we will never lose money again!"

That's 11 not 7