With the large majority of those retiring at age 60 before it changed to 65. Let's look at 2013 - ignoring the few who will reach 65 at the end of 2012 - and see how Barrister's "200 fo a year upgrading" looks. There are less than 200 East pilots who reach 65 in 2013, with hire dates ranging from 1974 to 1999 in a bell curve pattern. Their positions held range from senior 76I captain to junior 737 reserve FO. A not small number are out on medical. A few will have already retired, leaving before reaching 65. Where is the attrition that's going to upgrade 200 F/O's? At least where is it the real world, not the fantasy land where some reside?
Jim
I thought you weren't talking to me since I had the nerve to ask what shaped your views. Ask Barrister, I never put those numbers out there. Are you questioning that Captain Wilson went from #620 to # 463 due to previous east attrition?