TWU negotiations.........what?

[Bob Owens]

Does anyone see the recent DL flight attendant hiring (100,000 applicants for 1000 jobs) as entering into the negotiation calculus for either management or the TWU?

15 million unemployed and only 100,000 applicants. Prettysad if you ask me, anyone can fill out an application. So that means that 14,9000,000 people would rather remain unemployed than work as a Delta Flight attendant. Less than 1% of the unemployed put in for the job.

In some states you have to show that you put in applications in order to continue to get UI benifits.

However as far as mechanics go AAR has had several articles in the paper saying they cant fill just 200 Mechanics positions they have because nobody is putting in for them. They need to fill the jobs to do work for Delta. They took over the United Airline Indianapolis base which used to employ thousands. They left the industry, apparently for good.

If anything that helps us, because if AAR cant get the 200 guys to work on Delta's equipment then they would not be able to get guys to work on AAs planes if AA should threaten to farm out overhaul on their 600 airplanes. Some line stations at AA are over 700 hours OT for the year, I have no idea what the bases are up to but I've heard that the company may be looking for somebody to do some OH work because we simply cant handle any more than we've got. They are telling some of our 3P guys to go away, that puts more stress on the AARs. Its been reported that Mechanics who were laid off post 9-11 are turning down recalls across the industry. AA already lowered their experience requirements for a Line mechanic to ZERO years, it used to be 4 years of heavy turbine experience, small aircraft wasnt considered before, now its ZERO.

Who in their right mind would come into this industry? Low wages, poor benifits and brutal working conditions with no real security. Mechanics are highly skilled, airplanes are basically a conglomeration of many basic systems that are common to to everything else in technically advanced society. Reading schematics, troubleshooting and even turning a wrench is pretty much the same whether its an Airplane, a car, a powerplant, an elevator or a washing machine. If you can fix an airplane you are familiar with electroncis, pneumatic, hydraulic and of course mechanics systems and controls. If you can fix these systemjs in airplanes you can fix them in anything. Many industries realize this and hire A&Ps, and most now make better offers than the airlines. The only thing saving this industry at the moment is that most of the mechanics in it have been here so long they are very resistant to change, yet we still have those who do. Some are just riding it out to retiremement, theres no spark, they just show up. The only places you will find young mechanics is at places like Jet Blue and SWA, where they pay between $5 and $10/hr more.

The fact is that the number of Commercial Pilots and Mechanics being certified by the FAA has dropped dramatically. There is a shortage, thats why the industry is resorting to more OT and pushing to extend the amount of hours pilots can work, and why the FAA, which admitss there's a Fatigue problem wont address it. Growth will likely be hampered by it in the future, which no doubt will lead to a lowering of standards by the government and the industry.

 

[Bob Owens]

Airplane mechanics? Takes time and education to qualify, and no airline is likely to get large numbers of highly qualified applicants unless they offered superior wages. An airline that offered UPS-type wages would get many thousands of applicants. If it offered AA-type wages, probably wouldn't get but a few.

The thing is that if UPS was hiring most of those applications would probably come from people who already are in the industry, not from outside the industry. So the thousands of applicants (probably not as many as you think), would not at this time be an increase in supply to the industry, it would be a reallocation of supply within the industry, as you pointed out it would take several years for supply to be ratcheted up, you have to figure that the schools are already telling students that UPS jobs are out there for them yet the schools are still closing. We as a mechanics need to do a better job of showing these students what the real picture is like.

 

[eolesen]

The thing is that if UPS was hiring most of those applications would probably come from people who already are in the industry, not from outside the industry. So the thousands of applicants (probably not as many as you think), would not at this time be an increase in supply to the industry, it would be a reallocation of supply within the industry.

Yes, and this same principle could apply to AMR replacing you (or a MRO hiring up to replace TUL & AFW).

Let's say AMR (or the hypothetical MRO) decides to pull a NWA, and start stockpiling strikebreakers or newhires...

If they offered higher wages but little to no benefits, do you still think they would not have a fair percentage of under-employed AMT's currently working at various MRO's, or less senior yet experienced guys working for Skywest, Mesa, Comair, Spirit, etc?

Being a scab is a dying stigma, and only seems to apply to the guys who belonged to a union, and that's a shrinking population. And frankly, there are probably a few of those guys who see the unions as why they're under-employed in the first place... so why not take a good paying job, especially if they have benefits thru a spouse (or access to public health care...).

I get the whole shortage within the industry, but as long as AA can get people to cross the line, it doesn't matter what happens to Timco, Comair, Skywest, or Spirit. And if it doesn't work out with AMR or MRO X, those jobs will probably still be there at the bottom rung.

To be clear, I'm not advocating this, or saying it would ever happen. But there's always the chance that it could, and I think you get a little to comfortable in the blue state mentality belief that nobody will cross a picket line.

 

[Bob Owens]

Yes, and this same principle could apply to AMR replacing you (or a MRO hiring up to replace TUL & AFW).

Let's say AMR (or the hypothetical MRO) decides to pull a NWA, and start stockpiling strikebreakers or newhires...

If they offered higher wages but little to no benefits, do you still think they would not have a fair percentage of under-employed AMT's currently working at various MRO's, or less senior yet experienced guys working for Skywest, Mesa, Comair, Spirit, etc?

Being a scab is a dying stigma, and only seems to apply to the guys who belonged to a union, and that's a shrinking population. And frankly, there are probably a few of those guys who see the unions as why they're under-employed in the first place... so why not take a good paying job, especially if they have benefits thru a spouse (or access to public health care...).

I get the whole shortage within the industry, but as long as AA can get people to cross the line, it doesn't matter what happens to Timco, Comair, Skywest, or Spirit. And if it doesn't work out with AMR or MRO X, those jobs will probably still be there at the bottom rung.

To be clear, I'm not advocating this, or saying it would ever happen. But there's always the chance that it could, and I think you get a little to comfortable in the blue state mentality belief that nobody will cross a picket line.

It took NWA 18 months to scrounge up 1000 scabs at a time when the airlines had recently cut loose several thousand mechanics.

You say it doesnt matter what happens at Timco, I say you are wrong, and as far as mechanics I'd say I know better than you. The Timcos etc are like canaries in a coal mine, they, being bottom feeders are the first to see a shortage, then look at the fact that AA just lowered the experience requirement for Line maint to ZERO. Then throw in the fact that Jet Blue recently decided to raise Line mechanics in high cost areas up to $38/hr. We used to go to outfits like Jet Blue to get experience, now they hire away from AA, in fact they hired several mechanics away from AA, I'm talking about guys who quit AA, and went to work for Jet Blue. Lets not forget that with the running battle AA has had with the FAA an attempt to rush a lot of scbas in would be a total disaster, if AA is strugling to retain certification with 9000 experienced mechanics on the payroll how do you think the operation would fare with a few scabs? Lets not forget that Delta has been trying to recall some of the mechanics they laid off a few years back, despite the influx of mechanics from NWA, and they are seeing what AA saw, thanks but no thanks. Another factor is management, the experience level for mechanics may be at an all time high but the experience level in Aircraft maint management is probably at an all time low, the director of ORD had around 5 months experience at AA in line maint. These would be the guys trying to show the scabs what to do, trying to show them things they never did.

Now as far as the scabs, how many do you think are going to quit their current job, where, the shortage being what it is, they are probably being proffered a considerable amount of OT, to become a scab? You may claim there's no stigma but I can assure you that this industry is smaller than you realize, and the majority of mechanics in the airlines belong to unions and if you scab people will know about it and word gets around. So even if you scab in LAX and go to New York they will find out about it. with the internat the info is more available than ever.

In 2005 there was no shortage, there was clearly a surplus, thats no longer the case, and I'm willing to bet my career and the company on it.

 

[frontline]

Are we going to get a deal? Or show them that 2/3rds rejection gaves us leverage and now we want three times as much?

What leverage? How does us rejecting a TA by 2/3rd give us leverage? If anything the NMB is pissed and they'll keep us in the closet. Especially if the talks this month don't produce anything.

 

[Bob Owens]

If anything the NMB is pissed and they'll keep us in the closet.

What do you base that claim on?

 

[Hackman]

What do you base that claim on?

What he is told by AA management, what else?

 

[Mr Red]

They can PAY now or PAY later ! Time is on our side.We've waited this long another year or two, just tack it on to RETRO ck.

 

[TWU informer]

Bob Owens,

Is the TWU International still taking a hands off approach on these negotitioans since the 2/3 rejection vote? Or are they now back to in control?

 

[Bob Owens]

Bob Owens,

Is the TWU International still taking a hands off approach on these negotiations since the 2/3 rejection vote? Or are they now back to in control?

"Hands off" would not be a totally accurate description, the contract still remains the property of the International, so they of course still remain in control. So far the change is that we have a subcommitte that will be meeting with the company to conduct negotiations and the subcommittee is made up of representatives from stations that advocated a NO vote on the TA. The subcommittee has chosen Larry Pike to be the Co-chair, Don Videtich has been chosen by the International to be the other Co-chair.

Next week the Presidents are meeting with managment, but not for negotiations, but rather to hear the company reveal their business plan for 2011. Then the full committees for M&R and Stores are meeting to go over the final propsals. The following week we meet with the company for negotiations. The sequence of of course, based upon the past, leaves me somewhat aprehensive, I suspect that the company will dump a bunch of doom and gloom on us and then a move will be made to change the table position, thats only my feelings, based on what I've seen in the past, time will tell. My concerns stem from the fact that back in June of 2009 the company, during negotiations, gave a presentation where they projected that they had all these "white spaces" in the dock plan coming up by around 2012, and that if they didnt fill those white spaces with 3p work that it would mean the loss of around 1200 heads. Certain negotiating committee members (who three months later got International titles) latched onto that and said we needed to do "an excercise to show the third floor that we were serious about filling those white spaces". The excercise consisted of gutting the proposal and offering the company a concessionary deal, that the company later rejected anyway.

We agreed as a full committee to not release our new table position until we presented it to the company, I agreed, somewhat reluctantly, because there is some strategic validity to that. I'm hoping that the intent wasnt to keep it secret so the International could try and change the deal beforehand by subjecting all the Presidents to a company doom and gloom show followed up with a dog and pony show by their "economist" and a few words of "guidance" from the International. Hopefully my aprehensions prove unfounded.

 

[TWU informer]

Bob,

My bet is the vote to not release the current table position is because indeed it is going to change and release would raise expectations prior to the change, which would likely result in another NO VOTE.

I am not sure about the company gloom and doom not being accurate. It appears that with the new 737's scheduled for delivery next yeat, which I think is 8 per month, AA Management is currently running JT8 engine shops full tilt overtime to get engines ready for accelerated lease returns of MD-80's. I have no idea what this equates to in headcount but no doubt there will be extra heads soon both from MD-80 Aircraft and JT8 Engine production requirement drops. That isn't gloom and doom that is fact. The Landing Gear project was on track for being ready for more 3P work until management removed the 4/10's and the machinist turned out the lights and machines and went outside for awhile. Not sure where that stands now. Maybe if they get new contract language they can control the rebels that seem to think that their desired work hours are more important than survival. On the other nobody in management has ever produced any data saying the current work schedules were causing any failures. Basically inept management along with a spoiled work force is creating a stalemate and TUL is in quick sand about shoulder high. What we have is the troops running the place and nobody in management either bold enough or smart enough to change our direction, or at least explain what direction they intend to go and why they need changes.

It still wouldn't suprise me for them to vacate AFW if they can get full 7 day coverage in TUL, and unlicensed OSM's in DHW at DFW.


Good Luck, You're going to need it.

 

[Bob Owens]

If AA is able to secure 3P labor rates at its OH bases and then not go into the 3P business they would have a huge maintenance cost advantage over their competitors.

Thats my concern, and I believe thats the companys true objective.

I believe that the company has no real plans on obtaining large amounts of 3P work. If we go into that market, which already has low margins and has to compete with foreign 3P providers all AMR would be doing is further diluting domestic 3P providers pricing power and their competitors, other airlines, would be the benificiaries. In effect we would be, as Crandal cited 20 years ago, subsidizing our competitors maintenance costs by allowing them to not have to invest in their own maintenance.

There is a shortage of mechanics, thats why Jet Blue raised their wages up to $38 and Delta just gave their guys a raise. Industrywide recalls arent coming back, the schools arent putting out enough and AAR, which contracted with Delta to do OH work, is having problems finding 200 mechanics at a former UAL base that used to employ thousands. 3P providors will have to offer more money to get workers, thus cutting their margins even more, so if we stay out of that market their prices in future contracts will likely be higher, raising our competitors maintenance costs.

If AMR jumps into the 3P market the effect would be to drive up 3P labor costs(but we would not be able to take advantage for several years because we would be locked into a concessionry contract) while driving down prices for competing carriers.

AA will try to get the concessions in the name of getting the 3P work then bid high enough so they dont get it, then they will cut the heads anyway, if they really thought that they would be able to get enough 3P work then why didnt they offer to adjust system protection to DOS? Instead they picked a date that would leave around 700 without system protection, (figure, from the companys perspective that could have been 700 yes votes at zero cost). You have to figure around 400 to 500 mechanics a year attrit out, so if headcount were to stay the same the number who are unprotected goes up by that amount every year. By 2012 they could have around 1700 without system protection. How does that number compare to the amount of heads generated by MD-80 work? If by some chance they do win more 3P work, its a win-win because the inflated costs would be to their competitors who agreed to that price.

So like I said, the best business option for AA would be to secure 3P labor costs and not go into the 3P market and watch as compeitors pay more and more to 3P providers.

Dont you find it strange that just weeks after we rejected a TA that would have driven A&Ps out of OH to the line the the Union agreed to ZERO out the experience requirement for Line Maint? In the middle of negotiations we gave away another bargaining chip. We should have told the company to absorb all the upgrades in the bases, where most of them are now, since they didnt have the experience, if they wanted to get to the upgrades that had experience to send to the line. How many were there? A handful, instead of sending them to New York at $20/hr(you know after 6 months they are out of there-just in time for the June Graduates from the Academy of Aeronautics across the street from LGA). Now that the accepted standard is Zero experience, the company will simply claim that they did not recieve any applications from experienced mechanics so they will start hiring directly from A&P schools in MIA and New York. Remember when AA donated and delivered an MD-80 to that school in MIA? Why do you think they went to so much trouble?

We may only have a short window of opportunity before the International squanders away more opportunities to take advantage of the shortage the airlines created. We need to get as much as we can back now.

 

[TWU informer]

The best way to tell they are not really interested in 3P work is the fact that they do not even make decisions that would make it where we can do AA work effeciantly. Every suggestion brought forth is met with negative minds. We cannot even do our work effeciently, forget about doing 3P work.

AA Management either has no interest in 3P work. Or management has promoted so many inept idiots they cannot manage. Or both.

Either way, until you can do AA work without having daily crisis management meetings, you can forget doing 3P work.

This leads me to believe Bob's point is correct. They are not really interested in 3P work, they are simply using that as a carrot to get the TWU to capitulate once again for dues money.

 

[Interested]

The best way to tell they are not really interested in 3P work is the fact that they do not even make decisions that would make it where we can do AA work effeciantly. Every suggestion brought forth is met with negative minds. We cannot even do our work effeciently, forget about doing 3P work.

AA Management either has no interest in 3P work. Or management has promoted so many inept idiots they cannot manage. Or both.

Either way, until you can do AA work without having daily crisis management meetings, you can forget doing 3P work.

This leads me to believe Bob's point is correct. They are not really interested in 3P work, they are simply using that as a carrot to get the TWU to capitulate once again for dues money.

If AA was interested in 3P work, then they wouldn't have tossed out Aligent.

 

[eolesen]

I have friends at Allegiant HDQ... What I've been told is they no longer saw the same level of quality present as when they first started using AA, and that there was also concern about AA being able to absorb their future growth. Call it "constructive eviction" if it makes you feel better, but it sure sounded like it was their choice, and they weren't "thrown out" as you put it. Or maybe they're just spinning their side of the story?...

That said, I agree that AA probably isn't as interested in the 3P work. And those white spaces in the dock plan are just getting bigger and bigger, since it looks like the MD80's aren't being replaced on a 1:1 basis.