Jimntx,
The Railway Labor Act (RLA), and the National Mediation Board (NMB) that administer it, do not tolerate carrier influence or interference in representational elections. Our advisors tell us that the penatlies far outweigh any potential benefits for a carrier. Carriers' employees can't even offer an offhand opinion about under which union its employees might fare better. During the 'representational dispute,' a carrier is held to 'laboratory standards,' meaning that no pay, work rules, policies or their enforcement, etcetera, may change because any such change could possibly be construed to favor the incumbent or a challenger. We at UFAU are very confident that carrier interference is rare of not nonexistent.
The first step is to get 50%+1 of the class (the carrier's mechanics or flight attendants, for instance) to sign signatures asking the NMB to hold a representational election. Once the election is called, the NMB mails secret telephone voting instructions to the home of each person on the class' seniority list, including those on leave or furlough.
No matter how the election is called, who paid for the signature drive, who the incumbent is, whatever, once the election is called, anyone can camp onto the race. Even write-ins are accomodated. I cannot imagine any scenario in which AFA-CWA would not run on the ballot. Any union's constitution requires it to defend itself, so that guarantees APFA on the ballot. I think your three-party scenario is quite realistic.
Not voting in the representational election is a vote for no union representation. When the votes are counted, if at least 50%+1 have abstained, then there will be no union for that class. I forget how soon the next election can be, but it doesn't matter for a couple of very good reasons:
1) This scenario means that the majority of the class who asked for the election (ostensibly to switch unions) forgot to vote in it, and the incumbent and any other challengers never got anyone to vote in it either. And we're talking about one of the most important votes in our careers.
2) This has never happened in the history of the NMB. Turnout is invariably in the 90%'s.
Assuming that the above scenario does not come to pass, the union that recieves the most votes (no longer requires a 50%+1, just the most votes) is certified as the new collective bargaining agent within 24 hours of the count. The 50%+1 thing is a bit confusing at first, because it shows up in both the signature drive and in the vote, but the most votes does (do?), indeed, determine the winner alone. The RLA dictates that the contract, or Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA), remains in effect under the new union without change until is amendable date -- you cannot lose your contract by switching unions, even if you want to.
An excelent source of this information is the
NMB website. Here is their
representation manual (PDF), which takes the legalese out of most of the procedures.
Hope this helps.