Rumors from local 514

[La Li Lu Le Lo]

2% growth, what we are looking at here is a 77% loss of todays A&P workforce over the next 15 years. Roughly 77% are over 50 and will be gone within 15 years. So they will be losing 5% on average per year, that wont even support 2% growth. The next five will average at least 7%, that's just retirees, resignations have been at historically high rates as well.  So in order for AA to maintain their headcount, they will need around 500 of the roughly 3000 A&Ps that are produced annually   to service the entire Airline industry, the Helicopter industry, the Commuter industry, the General Aviation Industry, the Business Aviation industry, MRO industry, Aircraft manufacturing, the Military and the FAA.(and many of them are foreign nationals who return home)
 
The flaw with the DOL study is they based their conclusion solely on wage growth. Well,  we don't even have to go there.
 
They weren't looking at licensing rates , who was getting the licenses and what they were doing with them. They weren't looking at supply, and assumed that the price was a reflection of the supply.

Bob I have already considered that the numbers are off because of the "replacement rate". I understand there is a difference between "new" jobs (as in newcomers taking the jobs left behind) and growth (actually adding to the headcounts). We are totally on the same page with that one. I get it.  Maybe I should have communicated that better but I took for granted that would be obvious to anyone reading my post.   
 
You are displaying the average age group of American Airlines, AA may have an older work force but they are also a UNION shop. That makes a difference. I also saw no mention to the fact that American Airlines really has not done much hiring in the last.... what.... 12 years? I am betting the mechanics at the MRO's (Timco for instance) and the regional airlines are younger and probably looking to "upgrade". By the time the AA mechs slide out an employee hired today by an MRO should just about be ready. I mean it takes about 5 years to actually be a "good" mechanic right? There may be a shortage of mechanics but I doubt it will affect American Airlines. There is also the fact that American Airlines just bought a lot of new aircraft that are expected to have longer maintenance cycles. I stand by my statement that I doubt the company cares.
 
I think we can all agree here that ONLY adding an estimated 3500 jobs over a 10 year period is disappointing.  
 
 
 
 
IF there is indeed enough of a shortage to impact the major airlines I predict one of two things will happen.
 
The government will declare a "critical" shortage of A&P's and provide free training for people either unemployed or working minimum wage jobs. Work Advance here in Tulsa has already started doing this with welders, CNC machinist, Truck Drivers (CDL), and Diesel Mechanics. The government will be more than happy to funnel low cost, inexperienced, employees to American Airlines. 
 
https://www.facebook.com/pages/Transportation-Connections-WorkAdvance/205013246277439
 
OR
 
Airlines will start their own program (think the junior mechanic program) or possibly even their own schools (the place where I received my electrical training was owned and funded by many local area contractors).

 

[La Li Lu Le Lo]

Not all people who earn A&Ps intend to turn wrenches. Some get one to pad their resume and go into other things such as management, pilots, hobbyists, etc.

That is absolutely true. That is a good point.

 

[La Li Lu Le Lo]

TUL is not doing heavy maintenance on PMUS' planes.  HMVs are done in CLT and PIT per the CBA, and the ones that are vendored out are done at MROs, not AA or any other airline.
 
US uses ST MAE, Aeroman and not sure if they still use TIMCO or not, or what other vendors they use.

You mean TULE (TUL is the airport) is not doing heavy maintenance on PMUS' planes YET.
 
Why the hell do you think they are pushing the UNION alliance so hard? One word... integration for the companies benefit. Wake up man!!

 

[TRAVIS]

la li lu le lo 700 don't want to up set his PIT boys when that scope for protected station BS fails and they are told you are not getting laid off just relocated do to company reconstruction due to a unforeseen merger with AA and due to operational needs they leave 30 line and move the rest to TULE. The Company knows most will retire or not move at all, That's why they will not give out the early retirement packages the OLD GUYS are waiting for.  

 

[La Li Lu Le Lo]

Seems like a sound theory to me. I had heard TULE was red circled. It makes one wonder for sure.

 

[Bob Owens]

You are displaying the average age group of American Airlines, AA may have an older work force but they are also a UNION shop. That makes a difference. I also saw no mention to the fact that American Airlines really has not done much hiring in the last.... what.... 12 years? I am betting the mechanics at the MRO's (Timco for instance) and the regional airlines are younger and probably looking to "upgrade". By the time the AA mechs slide out an employee hired today by an MRO should just about be ready. I mean it takes about 5 years to actually be a "good" mechanic right? There may be a shortage of mechanics but I doubt it will affect American Airlines. There is also the fact that American Airlines just bought a lot of new aircraft that are expected to have longer maintenance cycles. I stand by my statement that I doubt the company cares.
 
I think we can all agree here that ONLY adding an estimated 3500 jobs over a 10 year period is disappointing.  
 
 
 
 
IF there is indeed enough of a shortage to impact the major airlines I predict one of two things will happen.
 
The government will declare a "critical" shortage of A&P's and provide free training for people either unemployed or working minimum wage jobs. Work Advance here in Tulsa has already started doing this with welders, CNC machinist, Truck Drivers (CDL), and Diesel Mechanics. The government will be more than happy to funnel low cost, inexperienced, employees to American Airlines.

There hasn't been growth in decades but even without growth there is still a demand for replacements. So the growth figure doesn't concern me. many mature industries see minimal growth but still require a constant stream of new workers to replace those that leave, my point is the stream has slowed down to a trickle. They can offer free training but that still won't change things, most who are unemployed are unemployed for a reason, and would likely be a little intimidated by having to put their name on their work and know that if they did anything wrong they are liable. As an AA worker you had the option to become an aircraft mechanic for free because AA was offering that for a number of years, even partnered with a school in Chicago and AA continues to partner with schools in NY and MIA, probably more, heard they were in Denver telling the kids in a school there what a great future they have ahead of them (1 week of VC, no holidays, no night shift premium, no pension) Not every mechanic from MROs look to go to the airlines, many stay at the MRO because of things like weekends and Holidays off, cheap cost of living and simply because they don't want change.

 

[iluvaa]

Bob you had asked a few post ago about young guys in TULE I have 17 years in and have less then 30 AMTs below me. Yes I have more OSM's below me but as far as AMTs go not so much.

 

[swamt]

Bob you had asked a few post ago about young guys in TULE I have 17 years in and have less then 30 AMTs below me. Yes I have more OSM's below me but as far as AMTs go not so much.

Wow.  You just made me realize how bad it is.  30 are under you out of how many above?   

 

[OldGuy@AA]

, That's why they will not give out the early retirement packages the OLD GUYS are waiting for.  

If this is directed at me personally then let me make something clear.  I have not seen a contract at AA in my time that benefited me or my demograph at the expense of others.  Most every TA that has come down the line has benefited others at my and my demograph's expense.  I could list them but if you have been reading this blog for any amount of time you know them.  I would like to say that I would not vote yes for any deal that inflicted hardships on any other demograph just to "Get mine."  I resent the fact that you insinuate that I would.  I think most realize by what I do post that I am against throwing bones at a certain group so you can screw the others.  The TWU not only allows this, they encourage it and that is why I signed an AMFA card.  Do I want to retire some day?  Yes I do.  But I refuse to vote yes for a package that would burden those that are left with lousy working conditions and pay and benefits.  This has been done to me many times and I refuse to do it to anyone else.  I am guilty of many things but those that know me well know that I try very hard not to be a hypocrite. So I take exception to anyone who implies that I would sell out my fellow union members.  I also would like to say that until AMFA gets in I am still a member of the TWU and I will do what good union men do and stick up for my membership as I have done for over 29 years.  

 

[TRAVIS]

If this is directed at me personally then let me make something clear.  I have not seen a contract at AA in my time that benefited me or my demograph at the expense of others.  Most every TA that has come down the line has benefited others at my and my demograph's expense.  I could list them but if you have been reading this blog for any amount of time you know them.  I would like to say that I would not vote yes for any deal that inflicted hardships on any other demograph just to "Get mine."  I resent the fact that you insinuate that I would.  I think most realize by what I do post that I am against throwing bones at a certain group so you can screw the others.  The TWU not only allows this, they encourage it and that is why I signed an AMFA card.  Do I want to retire some day?  Yes I do.  But I refuse to vote yes for a package that would burden those that are left with lousy working conditions and pay and benefits.  This has been done to me many times and I refuse to do it to anyone else.  I am guilty of many things but those that know me well know that I try very hard not to be a hypocrite. So I take exception to anyone who implies that I would sell out my fellow union members.  I also would like to say that until AMFA gets in I am still a member of the TWU and I will do what good union men do and stick up for my membership as I have done for over 29 years.  

Was not even directed your way... Was looking at the Older US AIR boys who keep the IAM in power and keep hoping for the IAM to get them something to bail out with but as you can see all they are getting is this BS contract with no pension increases and a pay raise that is just under the cost of living and bottom of the industry pay scale. Peace my brother....I have been in this business for over 30 years myself and its been a bumpy road.
Have a nice AMFA DAY.   

 

[AP Tech]

Latest from the rumor mill has the IAM working on getting an early out package....yea right!!! 

 

[TRAVIS]

I knew the rumors would start along with the anti- AMFA campaign flyers. AMFA must have them a little nerves.     

 

[AP Tech]

Next will come the visits from the IAM Intl Reps....not seen at my station since the IBT was trying to organize....

 

[TRAVIS]

same here LOL
you'll know then that they are really worried!

 

[OldGuy@AA]

Was not even directed your way... Was looking at the Older US AIR boys who keep the IAM in power and keep hoping for the IAM to get them something to bail out with but as you can see all they are getting is this BS contract with no pension increases and a pay raise that is just under the cost of living and bottom of the industry pay scale. Peace my brother....I have been in this business for over 30 years myself and its been a bumpy road.
Have a nice AMFA DAY.   

No harm no foul.  I do understand your point now.