Rumors from local 514

[Bob Owens]

Here is how the conversation went between me and a local 514 union official:
 
Him- 591 and the line were the ones who pushed the new line test.
 
Me- Oh yeah?  Peterson sent out a letter to his membership denying that.  He also said they disputed two of the questions and AA pulled them.  Why didn't local 514 dispute the test?
 
Him- We lost that with the BK agreement.  The company can change any test they want.  They can come up with any test they want and make any changes they feel like.
 
Me- If the company controls the tests, how did 591 get the old test changed?
 
Him- They are all for AMFA on the line.
 
I am paraphrasing a little bit but you can see where he reversed himself and changed the story.  Lots of that over the years from 514.

Hmm, and didn't what became 591(561, 562, 563, 564 & 565) all campaign against passing this contract that let them change the test however they wanted to? Didn't 565 actually go to TUL and try and get Tulsa to reject what those guys are now complaining about? 
 
I wouldn't get all worked up about the test, they need bodies. Ironically in places like NY guys are not as willing to work OT. It was never consistent so they turned to more reliable additional income sources. If they have a RIF it will be to try and fill vacancies on the line, what good would failing the few young guys that are willing to make the move do? Lets face it anyone over 55 is not going to follow the work if Tulsa shut down. I'm 53 and I would not follow the work. 
 
I think I'd rather deal with the economic hardship before having to deal with that mindset day in and day out. 

 

[Bob Owens]

We are extremely over manned but the 514 president said he didn't feel they were going to have a lay off. So as far as the rumor goes it's completely false. But that being said I still think there will be one if a lot more work doesn't come through them doors.

If so its possible they are running fat hoping to push through a quick crappy joint deal with another Early Out. The young mechanic is an extremely scarce commodity now a days, dumping their youngest to the street where they will likely find a better job and never return is simply a bad business decision. They may take a gamble and see if some will go and fill the vacancies on the line but its risky. 

 

[scorpion 2]

There are amt's in Tulsa that think this is a probability. The yes votes a going to be harder to come by from the line than they are in Tulsa so why not use Tulsa for one more screwing of M+R overall. Early out yes votes and promoting job saving yes votes from lower senior employees by 514 could swing enough votes to screw us all one more time. Charity is not a character trait of this company so one has to weigh all possibilities when considering why there hasnt been a layoff yet.   

 

[MetalMover]

Hmm, and didn't what became 591(561, 562, 563, 564 & 565) all campaign against passing this contract that let them change the test however they wanted to? Didn't 565 actually go to TUL and try and get Tulsa to reject what those guys are now complaining about? 
 
I wouldn't get all worked up about the test, they need bodies. Ironically in places like NY guys are not as willing to work OT. It was never consistent so they turned to more reliable additional income sources. If they have a RIF it will be to try and fill vacancies on the line, what good would failing the few young guys that are willing to make the move do? Lets face it anyone over 55 is not going to follow the work if Tulsa shut down. I'm 53 and I would not follow the work. 
 
I think I'd rather deal with the economic hardship before having to deal with that mindset day in and day out. 

Or maybe the company realized that letting just ANY-BODY get the job, regardless of skill and ability is detrimental in the long run.

 

[La Li Lu Le Lo]

If so its possible they are running fat hoping to push through a quick crappy joint deal with another Early Out. The young mechanic is an extremely scarce commodity now a days, dumping their youngest to the street where they will likely find a better job and never return is simply a bad business decision. They may take a gamble and see if some will go and fill the vacancies on the line but its risky. 

 
I thought I said that already (in post #6), except the early out part.
 
Bob, what would make you think people would be interested in an early out when 1. pensions are frozen and 2. retiree insurance will not be available?
 
Mechanics would be better off staying on the clock and slamming a 401k in my opinion.
 
I don't really see the benefit an early out (especially considering the concessions over the last 11 years) would have for the people leaving.
 
Can you clarify your statement?

 

[La Li Lu Le Lo]

Or maybe the company realized that letting just ANY-BODY get the job, regardless of skill and ability is detrimental in the long run.

HA HA HA HA HA
 
This man has jokes.
 
They (management) don't care.

 

[Bob Owens]

There are amt's in Tulsa that think this is a probability. The yes votes a going to be harder to come by from the line than they are in Tulsa so why not use Tulsa for one more screwing of M+R overall. Early out yes votes and promoting job saving yes votes from lower senior employees by 514 could swing enough votes to screw us all one more time. Charity is not a character trait of this company so one has to weigh all possibilities when considering why there hasnt been a layoff yet.

Well I think their opportunity to get us to vote in concessions has passed, they will try and resort to other means that will bypass the membership. Another reason why we don't want the Association, at least with the TWU LOAs have to go before the Presidents council, with the Association some two year appointed hack decides, so at the end of his two years he gives away the store then we are told "Oh we have a new (appointed, anointed) Leader, things will be different now! Just give him a chance".

Here is the thing, they really don't want to lay off because they lose the lowest cost workers that are also the foundation for the future workforce, there are so very few people under 30 now, on the other end they really can't offer an early out because they can't afford to lose the heads because there isn't a pool of guys out there to replace them. So they are better off staying overstaffed and allow attrition to softly eliminate the excess (can't say its excess when they are all blowing their OT budgets).

Typically MROs, fly by nighters and the military supplied new experienced mechanics, now AA has become a supplier to other carriers like SWA, Jet Blue, the FAA and the MTA in NYC. MRO's offer better shifts, weekends and Holidays off in affordable areas of the country and the military offers better benefits and a pension. Why would they leave to go work for AA? So AA's supply is drying up but demand for their young mechanics by other employers is increasing. Older workers are simply stuck, they just want to ride out their time.

And our workforce is getting older and less motivated by the minute. That also runs up costs, what we used to get done in 8 now takes 16.

 

[La Li Lu Le Lo]

There are amt's in Tulsa that think this is a probability. The yes votes a going to be harder to come by from the line than they are in Tulsa so why not use Tulsa for one more screwing of M+R overall. Early out yes votes and promoting job saving yes votes from lower senior employees by 514 could swing enough votes to screw us all one more time. Charity is not a character trait of this company so one has to weigh all possibilities when considering why there hasnt been a layoff yet.   

I am not at TULE anymore so I don't know if they are working US Airways metal or not, but another possibility is US Airways metal is going to TULE for maintenance and they are assessing just how many mechanics they actually need. Another possibility is they don't want a big mess to clean up post merger due to bumps and integrated seniority.

 

[La Li Lu Le Lo]

If so its possible they are running fat hoping to push through a quick crappy joint deal with another Early Out. 

on the other end they really can't offer an early out because they can't afford to lose the heads because there isn't a pool of guys out there to replace them. So they are better off staying overstaffed and allow attrition to softly eliminate the excess

 
Which is it Bob?
 
Early out or no early out?
 
You seem to have switched streams and it only took you one hour and twenty six minutes.
 
That is a pretty big change of opinion in such a short time.

 

[Bob Owens]

Which is it Bob?
 
Early out or no early out?
 
You seem to have switched streams and it only took you one hour and twenty six minutes.
 
That is a pretty big change of opinion in such a short time.

An early out for Tulsa only? But that would not be enough to get them the outcome they want in a vote. So, I'm not sure, could go either way, but they have screwed themselves by getting what they thought they wanted.

Tulsa will see reduced demand for labor as new planes come on line, if attrition isn't fast enough it would make more sense to get the older workers to leave, but they removed the pension and retiree medical and if they restricted a deal to just Tulsa then it would likely cause problems elsewhere in the system, and if they didn't restrict it to just Tulsa it would cause problems in the rest of the system. a lot of guys want out, but with no retiree medical they feel they have to stay. If they lay off the younger guys, not sure if you have any, the odds are that most would not bump to NY or LAX because of the cost of living, especially if they have a home and family in Tulsa. Then a few years later the older guys leave then they have no transition of skill levels. You will have very old unmotivated workers leaving and whatever they can scrounge up with out the skills anywhere near those they are replacing. ideally you want a broad range of skill/ experience levels, right now AA/US has a very experienced staff, too experienced, and not enough time or motivation to pass those skills along to those who will eventually replace them. We aren't going to put any effort into training them, the best thing we can do for them is convince them to abandon this profession.

I guess it falls on which problem the company decides to try and address, excess headcount in Tulsa or the shortage on the line. The fact that the workforce is old, wages suck and there is no shortage of work for people with mechanical skills complicates things for AA, and thats a good thing!

 

[La Li Lu Le Lo]

An early out for Tulsa only? But that would not be enough to get them the outcome they want in a vote. So, I'm not sure, could go either way, but they have screwed themselves by getting what they thought they wanted.

Tulsa will see reduced demand for labor as new planes come on line, if attrition isn't fast enough it would make more sense to get the older workers to leave, but they removed the pension and retiree medical and if they restricted a deal to just Tulsa then it would likely cause problems elsewhere in the system, and if they didn't restrict it to just Tulsa it would cause problems in the rest of the system. a lot of guys want out, but with no retiree medical they feel they have to stay. If they lay off the younger guys, not sure if you have any, the odds are that most would not bump to NY or LAX because of the cost of living, especially if they have a home and family in Tulsa. Then a few years later the older guys leave then they have no transition of skill levels. You will have very old unmotivated workers leaving and whatever they can scrounge up with out the skills anywhere near those they are replacing. ideally you want a broad range of skill/ experience levels, right now AA/US has a very experienced staff, too experienced, and not enough time or motivation to pass those skills along to those who will eventually replace them. We aren't going to put any effort into training them, the best thing we can do for them is convince them to abandon this profession.

I guess it falls on which problem the company decides to try and address, excess headcount in Tulsa or the shortage on the line. The fact that the workforce is old, wages suck and there is no shortage of work for people with mechanical skills complicates things for AA, and thats a good thing!

I agree a generational skills gap is coming. I am on the fence about the company caring or not. The report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics does not paint a very good picture. Projected rampant outsourcing to foreign countries is an obvious factor in this statistic. The membership might want to reconsider their "give away the farm" UNION.
 
I doubt the company cares when projected growth is only 2 percent over the next 10 years.
 
http://www.bls.gov/ooh/installation-maintenance-and-repair/aircraft-and-avionics-equipment-mechanics-and-technicians.htm
http://www.bls.gov/ooh/installation-maintenance-and-repair/aircraft-and-avionics-equipment-mechanics-and-technicians.htm#tab-6
 
Job Outlook, 2012-22 2% (Little or no change) Employment Change, 2012-22 3,500

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

The report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics does not paint a very good picture. Projected rampant outsourcing to foreign countries is an obvious factor in this statistic.
 
I doubt the company cares when projected growth is only 2 percent over the next 10 years.
 
http://www.bls.gov/ooh/installation-maintenance-and-repair/aircraft-and-avionics-equipment-mechanics-and-technicians.htm
http://www.bls.gov/ooh/installation-maintenance-and-repair/aircraft-and-avionics-equipment-mechanics-and-technicians.htm#tab-6
 
Job Outlook, 2012-22 2% (Little or no change) Employment Change, 2012-22 3,500

Unlike most sheep I don't depend on statistics...

Hmmm.

 

[Bob Owens]

2% growth, what we are looking at here is a 77% loss of todays A&P workforce over the next 15 years. Roughly 77% are over 50 and will be gone within 15 years. So they will be losing 5% on average per year, that wont even support 2% growth. The next five will average at least 7%, that's just retirees, resignations have been at historically high rates as well.  So in order for AA to maintain their headcount, they will need around 500 of the roughly 3000 A&Ps that are produced annually   to service the entire Airline industry, the Helicopter industry, the Commuter industry, the General Aviation Industry, the Business Aviation industry, MRO industry, Aircraft manufacturing, the Military and the FAA.(and many of them are foreign nationals who return home)
 
The flaw with the DOL study is they based their conclusion solely on wage growth. Well,  we don't even have to go there.
 
They weren't looking at licensing rates , who was getting the licenses and what they were doing with them. They weren't looking at supply, and assumed that the price was a reflection of the supply.

 

[lpbrian]

Not all people who earn A&Ps intend to turn wrenches. Some get one to pad their resume and go into other things such as management, pilots, hobbyists, etc.

 

[700UW]

TUL is not doing heavy maintenance on PMUS' planes.  HMVs are done in CLT and PIT per the CBA, and the ones that are vendored out are done at MROs, not AA or any other airline.
 
US uses ST MAE, Aeroman and not sure if they still use TIMCO or not, or what other vendors they use.