I believe 767jetz is on target. No one wanted to deal with the east group before the AWA merger; their actions since then have rendered any merger involving them essentially impossible. The only way the UAL pilots would stomach a US/UA deal would be to demand a prenup so onerous to the US-east group that nuclear war would ensue. Should UAL management disregard this and cram the deal down their throats anyway, the nuclear war would be instituted by the UAL group.
I am not a UAL pilot; I could be misreading the situation. Perhaps 767jetz has a better sense of the UAL pilots' feelings about the US-east pilot group.
WOW! I'm gone for a few hours and the world implodes!! I better get busy typing!
OK, first off let's get this out of the way... CO says they will not merge. No one can control what CO's board wants to do, so absent a hostile takeover (which no one was implying) if CO doesn't want to get married, then there is no marriage. Does this prove that LCC was going to merge with UA all along. NO. It proves that CO was UA's first choice, and now UA will move on to other plans.
Am I disappointed? Absolutely. IMO UA/CO deal would have been an incredible powerhouse, a (relatively) painless integration of labor, and I would have loved to had a chance to prove to the East that an equitable integration can happen without DOH and giving up career expectations. I was not wrong that a CO/UA deal was imminent. I was wrong in that no one expected CO to change their mind after having gone so far and so deep as it did with UA. Oh well. Time to move on. I'm the first to admit that this is definitely not how I believed things would unfold.
Now, on to pacemaker's comments. You are correct in stating that no one, and I do mean
NO ONE will walk in and take what is ours. So there is no mistake, that comment is directed squarely at the same East pilots who thought that they would fly our 747's and 777's back in 2000. I don't know what our MEC has for contingency plans yet, but I'm sure your comments are accurate with regard to a prenup. Management will not be successful in any merger attemt that does not protect the over 8000 United pilots. UA pilots stand ready to battle to the end if need be. There is always the hope that it won't be necessary, but we have the numbers, the solidarity, and the deep pockets to defend our postion very well. Keep in mind that ALPA has a war chest no longer available to USAirways, and UA ALPA can easily outspend USAPA in any integration battle.
But let's not get ahead of ourselves here. Just because CO decided to remain independent, doesn't make a merger with US predetermined.
1- CO could be playing a very strong poker hand, trying to get a better deal from Tilton. Remember that DL and NW scuttled their merger only to re-announce it a couple of weeks later.
2- UA might realize that it will never have labor peace and decide that taking on US is not worth it.
3- With CO remaining independent, there will only be one mega carrier called Delta. So UA could easily go it alone, since the landscape has not changed that drastically. They might even form an alliance with CO joining STAR.
4- US brings nothing but more domestic capacity to the table. (Something UA is determined to reduce) Where's the benefit? It just doesn't make sense.
5- UA might fall back on plan B and merge with US to avoid having AA grab it.
6- UA and AA could carve up US and split the spoils. (not likely.)
7- UA could cut a deal with Lufthansa for a merger with Jet Blue.
Whatever happens from here on in, it will certainly be a bumpy ride for all. Hang on tight!