Let''s Talk Facts About Bankruptcy

[Wild Onion]

----------------
On 4/6/2003 10:56:14 AM RV4 wrote:


We have all heard this for months now:

"We will end up alot worse in Bankruptcy"

I open this thread for facts about why "we will end up worse". I am open minded and would like facts. Voting on Fear does not sound like the correct the thing to do!
 
I request that fear based innuendo not appear on this thread.

If you can prove how others have been treated worse, then post that data.

PLEASE, Let''s just stick to the facts.

Listed below are eight things to consider about bankruptcy:

1. Regime Change - Top company executives will have to explain to future investors how, under their leadership, the world''s largest airline went from making record profits to bankruptcy in two short years. There is every possibility American Airlines would undergo a change of leadership in the bankruptcy process.
   Accurate Disclosure - The Company would be forced to accurately disclose information during the bankruptcy process. Mr. Carty himself has described the bankruptcy process as "invasive". Let''s get the facts.
   Time - Bankruptcy buys us time. Time to properly renegotiate and fully consider a contract where the pain is shared in a balanced way among all employee groups.
   1113 process - If we can''t get a negotiated contract, the 1113 process will result in an imposed contract that we will be able to renegotiate much sooner than 2009. We stand a far better chance of restoring our contract in a couple years when the industry improves.
   Turnaround Gains - Bankruptcy may give us the opportunity to negotiate things like ESOP/Type S Corporation, seats on the Board of Directors, employee ownership that gives us a fair chance to see some upside gain for our sacrifices. To learn more about the ESOP option go to: www.buyitfixit.org
   Bankruptcy anyway - We have no assurance this TA will keep us out of bankruptcy. If we accept the TA and go into BK we will end up giving twice. Have we not learned anything from the plight of our friends at USAir?
   Pension - The APA has taken council from a former senior member of the PBGC. He has indicated that the pilot''s "A" fund is healthy enough that it would not be subject to a distress termination under bankruptcy. Keep in mind that UAL''s pension remained virtually untouched in the BK process.
   Politics of Bankruptcy - With United Airlines and American in bankruptcy, close to 40% of the airlift in this country would be in BK protection. Several other major carriers, in an effort to level the playing field and with financial troubles similar to ours, will almost certainly have to file for protection. This scenario raises a huge political issue. What is the ATSB doing to stabilize an industry that is vital to the national economy and on the verge of collapse?

----------------​

No fear here at all. I''ll give it a whirl...

1. Regime change: AMR still has to answer to shareholders. Shareholders hold much more power to affect leadership change than proposed future creditors. I don''t see anything new forcing Carty and his crew out that would be created byt he bankruptcy process.

2. Accurate disclosure: AMR has to adhere to the laws and regulations of the SEC either way. If you''re looking for AMR to admit to what some perceive as shady business practices, BK court won''t change that. UAL is still keeping tons of stuff under wraps.

3. Time: You might be right, you might be wrong. There are so many independent variables that are out of the company''s control, that no one can say for sure (war, SARS, economy). If the economy stays depressed for another 2 years, then yeah, amybe we should have filed early.

4. 1113 Process: I don''t pretend to know the ins and outs of the Union contracts, but I do know that life will be a whole lot worse for employees if the contracts were voided. Yes, you can negotiate down the road 2 or 3 years, but there''s no way you''ll get everything back. I guess that''s a decision that each person needs to make for themselves.

5. Politics: It should be pretty clear to everyone that the current administration has no desire to bail out the airline industry. Conservatives are in power, and they (as do I) believe that the free market should sort things out. I personally would not feel comfortable (yes, afraid) leaving my career and future up to the winds of politics.

I believe that AMR is better off avoiding bankruptcy at almost any cost.

 

[Duditz]

----------------
On 4/6/2003 10:56:14 AM RV4 wrote:


We have all heard this for months now:

"We will end up alot worse in Bankruptcy"

I open this thread for facts about why "we will end up worse". I am open minded and would like facts. Voting on Fear does not sound like the correct the thing to do!
 
I request that fear based innuendo not appear on this thread.

----------------​

Actions influenced by Fear (Fear: an unpleasant often strong emotion caused by anticipation or awareness of danger.) are often times correct. OTOH, actions based on false bravado are often wrong. Fear tells us to examine the risk/reward of an action we are about to take.

We must not however act based on panic (PANIC implies unreasoning and overmastering fear causing hysterical activity)

 

[Buck]

----------------
On 4/6/2003 12:31:39 PM xlurker wrote:

Am I posting in this thread again?

Buck:

Offers of stock to suppliers is not from a Bankrupt airline.

The government picking up the tab - my point exactly, who will pay for that?

Leases are not 1 year at a time. If they were, we would have much fewer airplanes. Those leases were signed before 911 etc. Bad business decision to not have a crystal ball? AA does not park them now because they will still have to pay the leases, Some revenue from them is better than none.



----------------​

I beleive I did not say from a bankrupt airline. It is the intent of American Airlines to gain these contracts to aid in preventing bankruptcy.

The tax payer, of course. Agian this the price for reregulation of the industry.

Robert Crandall had walk away leases when he bought the MD-80''s this prevented industry downs from controlling his purchases. Are you suggesting that it is good business to fly an aircraft where it costs more than to park it? This the same attitude that causes the $5 million a day cash burn.

 

[xlurker]

No you did not say from a BK airline, I did. All of my comments were as if airlines were BK.

Do you honestly think we are flying aircraft knowing it would cost less to park them? There is a difference between poor business judgement and stupidity.

If you think we are that stupid, we all better get out now.

I am sure we are recovering the "fixed" cost of those airplanes. We would otherwise be paying if they were parked.

 

[MiAAmi]

How about only people that legally deal with BK tell us how it works instead of all these off the cuff statements. Oh I forgot thats what our Union dues were paying for all along. People need to realize this is not the end of a contract were we can renegotiate or strike. This is about a changing industry and whether we want to be a part of it. The glamour days of flying are over with and have been for quite some time now. The Bush administration now feels that the airline industry needs to work out their own problems. Along with this there is the pleasure he can have of bringing down the wages of thousands of workers which when you account for the trickle down effect will do wonders for the economy and even worse for the local cities where airlines have strong holds. We can take our medicine now or we can take have the BK judge tell us sorry I''m only here to make sure that the AA stays afloat and the creditors get paid. And wouldn''t you rather say I tried instead of maybe I shouldn''t have bet the farm on this one?

 

[RV4]

fact

Pronunciation: (fakt),
—n.
1. something that actually exists; reality; truth: Your fears have no basis in fact.
2. something known to exist or to have happened: Space travel is now a fact.
3. a truth known by actual experience or observation; something known to be true: Scientists gather facts about plant growth.
4. something said to be true or supposed to have happened: The facts given by the witness are highly questionable.
5. Law.Often, facts. an actual or alleged event or circumstance, as distinguished from its legal effect or consequence. Cf. question of fact, question of law.
6. after the fact, Law.after the commission of a crime: an accessory after the fact.
7. before the fact, Law.prior to the commission of a crime: an accessory before the fact.
8. in fact, actually; really; indeed: In fact, it was a wonder that anyone survived.

 

[MiAAmi]

The FACT is I FEAR losing more of my paycheck if not my job all together in BK Court.

 

[RV4]

fear

Pronunciation: (fEr),
—n.
1. a distressing emotion aroused by impending danger, evil, pain, etc., whether the threat is real or imagined; the feeling or condition of being afraid.
2. a specific instance of or propensity for such a feeling: an abnormal fear of heights.
3. concern or anxiety; solicitude: a fear for someone''s safety.
4. reverential awe, esp. toward God.
5. that which causes a feeling of being afraid; that of which a person is afraid: Cancer is a common fear.

 

[cybercat]

On 4/6/2003 12:03:09 PM flyhigh wrote:



Then why did AA buy TWA and even require them to file BK first? Given his and apparently your philosophy. Why would Carty bring into AA an organization that has such a low chance of survival and demand that they enter BK before bringing them in? SOund like a leadership blunder.

>p>

I seem to remember that the bankruptcy filing was to get rid of Karabu, the Icahn albatross. Keeping Karabu and allowing Icahn to sell unlimited discount tickets on your airline would have been a major blunder IMO

 

[RV4]

----------------
On 4/6/2003 2:33:17 PM MiAAmi wrote:

The FACT is I FEAR losing more of my paycheck if not my job all together in BK Court.

----------------​

Bravo.

Shall I post the definition of COWARD?

 

[RV4]

As the thread continues it becomes more apparent that we have NO FACTS.

We have FEAR, we have a DESIRE to be better off and survive, but we have NO BUSINESS PLAN, we have NO LANGUAGE, we have a union that is about to violate it''s on Constitution in attempt to cater to AA''s emregency vote schedule.

Where is the proof that Bankruptcy would not assist us in a brighter future?

AA says we would have to ground 80-100 Airplanes via Bankruptcy.
Why not do that now?
AA says we would have sell assets and Spin-Off operations.
Why not do that now?

Why is it that exactly what the BK Judge would do is NOT what we all really need to survive?

Does anyone believe the Bankruptcy Judge would try to destroy the Airline?

Why does AA admit the Judge''s plan would be different from the one we are asked to accept without any facts? Seems if we were deciding to stay out of Bankruptcy, we would be taking those actions that Carty says the Judge would force upon us before we get to his bench.

It still seems to me that AA is using fear and intimidation to reverse the wage and benefit structure of the whole industry. It is a fact that there is capacity problem in the industry and every union trying to save every job is NOT going to correct that issue.

I am not so sure that a large airline while saving every job possible is in our best long term interest. Could it be that our own Unions are leading us down a path of destruction in an attempt to preserve the over capacity and jobs?

Hey, I am all for big airlines and excessive employment, but NOT when we are on a sinking ship and the industry will not sustain those goals.

Did you ever think that this non-Bankruptcy plan could actually make things worse? For 18 Months we have watched as our mangement team did very little to correct course. Now all the sudden we have an emergency and cannot even get the facts before we make a decision? Something is very fishy about that?

I favor slowing things down a little and thinking this situation out with facts.
Now, if we could just get the facts instead of FEAR!

 

[MiAAmi]

----------------
On 4/6/2003 442 PM RV4 wrote:

----------------
On 4/6/2003 2:33:17 PM MiAAmi wrote:

The FACT is I FEAR losing more of my paycheck if not my job all together in BK Court.

----------------​

Bravo.

Shall I post the definition of COWARD?

----------------​

Coward? Call me whatever you want. I think this battle is lost I just don''t want to lose the war. I would only suggest that instead of looking up all these definitions of words that you instead look at the industry and judge for yourself whether we will ever have a contract like we do today. Watch the business news for how the majors are having to compete with the discount carriers. If AA is to last longer than this T/A there will have to be major changes as the airline industry adjusts to the economic and tech changes facing us. Try to look a little further down the road and make your decision based on your caculations. Those calculations
will not only include how much you make but what the other carriers make, the effect of regional jets, the health of our compeditors and so on. I''m not ready to give up more than the T/A to a BK judge without a fight. Thats just the coward in me I guess

 

[RV4]

----------------
On 4/6/2003 5:31:59 PM MiAAmi wrote:

I''m not ready to give up more than the T/A to a BK judge without a fight. Thats just the coward in me I guess


----------------​

Where are your facts that you would give up more?

Are you saying that you are willing to fight for such a pathetic T/A?

If yes, who are you going to fight?

 

[AAviator]

----------------
On 4/6/2003 6:00:03 PM RV4 wrote:


As the thread continues it becomes more apparent that we have NO FACTS.

We have FEAR, we have a DESIRE to be better off and survive, but we have NO BUSINESS PLAN, we have NO LANGUAGE, we have a union that is about to violate it''s on Constitution in attempt to cater to AA''s emregency vote schedule.

Where is the proof that Bankruptcy would not assist us in a brighter future?

The bankruptcy judge works for the creditors, and the management team, not us.

AA says we would have to ground 80-100 Airplanes via Bankruptcy.
Why not do that now?

Cost. All contractual obligations and leases apply

AA says we would have sell assets and Spin-Off operations.
Why not do that now?

We can''t control what a creditors committe would require us to sell. I''d like to hold onto as much of AA as possible

Why is it that exactly what the BK Judge would do is NOT what we all really need to survive?

Dave, its what the airline needs to survive, not the employees

Does anyone believe the Bankruptcy Judge would try to destroy the Airline?

No, employment packages, YES

Why does AA admit the Judge''s plan would be different from the one we are asked to accept without any facts? Seems if we were deciding to stay out of Bankruptcy, we would be taking those actions that Carty says the Judge would force upon us before we get to his bench.

If a creditor decides he or she can do better with their assetts elsewhere, they can petition the judge to give them their assetts. AA has pledged most of the company.

It still seems to me that AA is using fear and intimidation to reverse the wage and benefit structure of the whole industry.

Yep, southwest is a by product of AA''s fear and intimidation. As is every other non-bankrupt carrier

It is a fact that there is capacity problem in the industry and every union trying to save every job is NOT going to correct that issue.

BINGO!

I am not so sure that a large airline while saving every job possible is in our best long term interest.

LIAR! off with your head!

Could it be that our own Unions are leading us down a path of destruction in an attempt to preserve the over capacity and jobs?

No

Hey, I am all for big airlines and excessive employment, but NOT when we are on a sinking ship and the industry will not sustain those goals.

what? who are you and what have you done with AMFA DAVE?

Did you ever think that this non-Bankruptcy plan could actually make things worse? For 18 Months we have watched as our mangement team did very little to correct course.

10''s of thousand of jobs cut, F100''s parked, 2 billion in spending cut, 26 MD80''s to be parked, 14 767-200''s parked.

Now all the sudden we have an emergency and cannot even get the facts before we make a decision? Something is very fishy about that?

I favor slowing things down a little and thinking this situation out with facts.
Now, if we could just get the facts instead of FEAR!

You poor thing, you''re the most petrified poster I''ve ever seen on this board

----------------​

 

[MiAAmi]

OK lets post the entire business plan here on the web. But tell all the competitors not to read it. The Union negotiators had to sign a confidentiality clause because the info was sensitive. Sometimes you have to trust the people you elect to look out for your best interest. We will probably never know the crap that the company came at them with. Lets face it the company has a gun to our head and you can say shoot or heres what you want. I just hope if you say shoot that you realize you are saying shoot all of us.