Bottom Line

[MCI transplant]

Well with one foot in the grave what would you do?

Im in a joking mood tonight, no offense intended MCI!

<_< ------ This is one joke that's on you! You'll be there yourself someday! And that's a certainty!!! If as you say, I have one foot in the grave, why should I give a damn what AA's management likes, or don't! Or for that matter, you also!

 

[local 12 proud]

<_< ------ This is one joke that's on you! You'll be there yourself someday! And that's a certainty!!! If as you say, I have one foot in the grave, why should I give a damn what AA's management likes, or don't! Or for that matter, you also!

Lighten up Ole timer it was a joke....Ya know,..... HA..HA!

Personally I don't think it makes a hill of beans what you or I think in the Scheme of Things.

 

[eolesen]

Raptor, How does a Company with the kind of money AA has on hand go into bankruptcy? Remember that both Northworst, and Us Air rushed into court on the same day. Just before the new Bankruptcy Laws took effect. They did this for a reason! The new laws arn't as Corporate friendly as before, and take a lot of Control out of managements hands! Something I don't think Our-Pay and Co. would tolerate! So, I feel a treat of Bankruptcy should not be taken as seriously!

MCI, you might be right, but I think you're wrong.

AA most could most certainly file a pre-packaged bankruptcy, even with as much cash on hand as they do. Heck, that makes it all the more likely, because there would be collateral or even no need whatsoever for debtor-in-possession financing.

Pre-packaged filings (i.e. a majority of the secured and even some unsecured creditors are aligned with the Company's decision to restructure in advance), the time spent under court supervision usually winds up being less than a year.

The new law limits how long the current management team has exclusivity for a plan of reorganization. Unless there is another entity looking to acquire the company, it is still entirely possible for the current management team to drag things out as long as some recent bankruptcies have been dragged out.

Given where oil currently is, I wouldn't be expecting a lot of people to be fighting over AMR as a whole. They'd be waiting for a fire sale, perhaps, but nobody would be rushing to take it on as a whole (similar to how nobody was rushing to take over UAL, which is why they kept getting extensions on POR exclusivity).

 

[The Goose]

MCI, you might be right, but I think you're wrong.

AA most could most certainly file a pre-packaged bankruptcy, even with as much cash on hand as they do. Heck, that makes it all the more likely, because there would be collateral or even no need whatsoever for debtor-in-possession financing.

Pre-packaged filings (i.e. a majority of the secured and even some unsecured creditors are aligned with the Company's decision to restructure in advance), the time spent under court supervision usually winds up being less than a year.

The new law limits how long the current management team has exclusivity for a plan of reorganization. Unless there is another entity looking to acquire the company, it is still entirely possible for the current management team to drag things out as long as some recent bankruptcies have been dragged out.

Given where oil currently is, I wouldn't be expecting a lot of people to be fighting over AMR as a whole. They'd be waiting for a fire sale, perhaps, but nobody would be rushing to take it on as a whole (similar to how nobody was rushing to take over UAL, which is why they kept getting extensions on POR exclusivity).

As I've understood the new Chp. 11 BK law, 18 months POE is maximum with no discretion to the judge.

Also, it's been said in some legal opinions the executive retention (read failure) bonuses so often passed out in BK would be subject to a viable job offer; the judge having discretion as to allowing the failure payment or telling the exec to take the job offered.

It sounds good and if followed would put a major crimp in the devils' styles, making the BK process more unattractive to the executive shareholders (the only shareholders ever considered).

If bankruptcy is the plan however, I look for big union gains to be made in advance of a Chapter 11 filing, effectively negating those gains and reducing wages and benefits to what the company desires to pay followed by another round of obscene bonuses after exit.

 

[eolesen]

As I've understood the new Chp. 11 BK law, 18 months POE is maximum with no discretion to the judge.

Yes, but when you're one of the fugliest girls at a bar, you are still likely to go home alone after last call...

Absent other interested parties, there's nothing to prevent current management from holding off on proposing a POR for 19, 24, or 36 months. If AMR's cash balance is spoken for, there's not a lot of attraction left for some of the quick-buck artists.

Also, it's been said in some legal opinions the executive retention (read failure) bonuses so often passed out in BK would be subject to a viable job offer; the judge having discretion as to allowing the failure payment or telling the exec to take the job offered.

It sounds good and if followed would put a major crimp in the devils' styles, making the BK process more unattractive to the executive shareholders (the only shareholders ever considered).

Yep. And that should mute some of the criticism who see Chapter 11 as nothing more than court sanctioned union busting, since the only thing executives would have to gain is getting the company back into a fiscally sound position on all fronts...

If bankruptcy is the plan however, I look for big union gains to be made in advance of a Chapter 11 filing, effectively negating those gains and reducing wages and benefits to what the company desires to pay followed by another round of obscene bonuses after exit.

I disagree with the first part. Pay close attention to what's happening with the pilots, and how management has remained relatively calm/silent.

Arbrogating the contract isn't a given, so signing agreements they don't plan to honor has more potential to backfire on the company. It's pretty hard for the company to argue "yes, we just signed this a few months ago, but we really need these cuts" in front of a judge, absent an event of the scale of 9/11.

On the other hand, it's entirely feasible that the actions of the APA's leadership could wind up making a compelling case for a lack of good faith bargaining on their part. Based on how they have acted so far, the company is probably better off waiting it out, filing, and having the previous contract arbrogated and replaced with the company's terms. Yes, that would be a disaster for the rank and file, but they're the ones who elected Hill & Co...

If I were in one of the other workgroups, I'd be pushing for my union reps to have a Plan B, in that if they do come to an agreement before the pilots, make sure there's language which indicates that there would not be a S1113 challenge by the company if there is a filing within X months of ratification.

As for obscene bonuses... this is another part where your union has to be smarter. Since AMR's management hasn't led by example, the unions need to take some control of the issue so it can be enforced contractually.

Include in the S1113 waiver language that limits the amount of new shares made available to executive management or any other workgroup from exceeding the proportion that they comprise of the restructured company. If management only comprises 9% of the company, then only 9% of the total shares issued to employees would be available for management. If flight attendants make up 18% of the employees and pilots make up 15%, it would prevent the pilots from getting more shares than the flight attendants. Ensure that the pie is divided up equally. There won't be too many judges who would argue with that. But it has to be contractual.

 

[MCI transplant]

<_< ------ Eric, do you really believe AMR is willing to expose themselfs ,in Bankrupcy, to "outside interests"? I believe Uncle Carl still has a score to settle with AA for beating him out of his "Karabu" deal with TWA! IF he smells blood, he will respond! And he is just one of many sharks out there!

 

[MCI transplant]

Lighten up Ole timer it was a joke....Ya know,..... HA..HA!

Personally I don't think it makes a hill of beans what you or I think in the Scheme of Things.

<_< ------Son, getting old is no joke! Someday you'll know what I mean! Lighten up? Sure! Ha! Ha! <_<

 

[local 12 proud]

<_< ------Son, getting old is no joke! Someday you'll know what I mean! Lighten up? Sure! Ha! Ha! <_<

Hey grumpy old man, Life is too short for walking around with a scowl all the time.

Take some viagra and get laid once in awhile!

 

[Raptor]

<_< ----- No Raptor! I'm talking an "Across the board" raise, PLUS a COLA! And a 5-6 year contract? No way! A three year contract max! this is a changing industry. We need the economic flexablity to survive!

Sure I think everyone will get an across the board raise of $1 per hour as I said and the line stations could get as much as $6 per hour with their COLA, I don't see AA giving more than that with the other big 4 already making what we make.
I like 6 year contract because the industry is changing and not for the better, fuel will continue to rise and their will continue to be an excess of Mechanics, these are all bad for us.
I have 10 years till retirement two 5 year contracts and I could get out of this place with my shorts still intact, with 3 year contracts it would be 4 contracts till I could get out of here, the chances of us negotiating 4 contracts without losing our Pension is none in my Opinion, so I really hope it is atleast a 5 year contract.

As far as MCI station goes I am with some of the other posters in believing that AA will get rid of it as soon as they can, our Managers our always telling us that AA wants to dump MCI but they are still under contract.
sorry MCI but I think MCI days are numbered.

Local 12 proud I think alot of guys on this Board should take your advise MCI is not the only grumpy guy around here.

 

[NewHampshire Black Bears]

Hey grumpy old man, Life is too short for walking around with a scowl all the time.

Take some viagra and get laid once in awhile!

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

MCI,

Don't "pay no 'tention" to that fresh pup..."12" !

Fuuk the Viagra............as long as you can be like are friend.."MUFF DADDY", you'll have nothing to worry about !!

 

[eolesen]

<_< ------ Eric, do you really believe AMR is willing to expose themselfs ,in Bankrupcy, to "outside interests"? I believe Uncle Carl still has a score to settle with AA for beating him out of his "Karabu" deal with TWA! IF he smells blood, he will respond! And he is just one of many sharks out there!

One thing I've learned with regard to labor/management relations during the last five years is that nobody can predict what's going to happen based on past history....

Are they willing to file? No. But can they afford to give 50% raises to the pilots, and then deal with the "me, too" factor with the other unions at the same time oil is trading 3x above what it was in 2003? Nope.

It's sort of like electing the President was in 2004 -- sometimes you're faced with deciding which is the better of two bad choices.

As much as I despise that type of action, restructuring in bankruptcy has proven to be a pretty effective tool for NWA.

When they filed for bankruptcy in 2005, they had $1.5B in unrestricted cash. If you adjust for the difference between AMR and NWA in terms of revenue only, that would be like AMR filing with around $3B in unrestricted cash, or 3x what they were threatening to do in 2003.

Assume a more paydowns for future aircraft deliveries and some perhaps pre-payment of debt that AMR wouldn't be able to wriggle out of in court, and AMR could easily be down to $3B within the six to nine months. As long as they don't do it within 90 days of filing, that cash is untouchable.

So.... don't assume that AMR will simply quiver at the thought of Icahn, Trump, or TPG entering the picture. Carl might play the role of spoiler, but he's not stupid when it comes to protecting his fortune. I don't see him pissing it away just to get even. In some ways, AMR did him a huge favor, because he would have been more screwed had TWA collapsed after 9/11, he would have been on the hook for a lot of Karibu tickets that AMR wound up honoring.

 

[MCI transplant]

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

MCI,

Don't "pay no 'tention" to that fresh pup..."12" !

Fuuk the Viagra............as long as you can be like are friend.."MUFF DADDY", you'll have nothing to worry about !!

<_< ------- Bears, I may be in my sixties, but Viagra, believe me, is "NOT" a part of my life!!!------ Enjoy your "Muff Daddy"!!!

 

[MCI transplant]

Sure I think everyone will get an across the board raise of $1 per hour as I said and the line stations could get as much as $6 per hour with their COLA, I don't see AA giving more than that with the other big 4 already making what we make.
I like 6 year contract because the industry is changing and not for the better, fuel will continue to rise and their will continue to be an excess of Mechanics, these are all bad for us.
I have 10 years till retirement two 5 year contracts and I could get out of this place with my shorts still intact, with 3 year contracts it would be 4 contracts till I could get out of here, the chances of us negotiating 4 contracts without losing our Pension is none in my Opinion, so I really hope it is atleast a 5 year contract.

As far as MCI station goes I am with some of the other posters in believing that AA will get rid of it as soon as they can, our Managers our always telling us that AA wants to dump MCI but they are still under contract.
sorry MCI but I think MCI days are numbered.

Local 12 proud I think alot of guys on this Board should take your advise MCI is not the only grumpy guy around here.

<_< -- Tell me Son? Do you believe everything your managers tell you? Obviously you do! Too bad! Someday it might get you in trouble!----- :down:

 

[Raptor]

<_< -- Tell me Son? Do you believe everything your managers tell you? Obviously you do! Too bad! Someday it might get you in trouble!----- :down:

In your sixties and still working Ouch That has got to hurt.
You have my condolences, I will be out of here at 55 or die trying.

If you are in your sixties I don't think you have anything to worry about even if they do shut it down.

Life is to short to work forever in my Opinion.

 

[MCI transplant]

In your sixties and still working Ouch That has got to hurt.
You have my condolences, I will be out of here at 55 or die trying.

If you are in your sixties I don't think you have anything to worry about even if they do shut it down.

Life is to short to work forever in my Opinion.

<_< ------- "IF" You can retire at 55, go for it! Bless you son!------ But if you feel you'll have to go back to work after a few years, to maintain your level of lifestyle, your better off staying on the active payroll! The reason all exTWA people have such high seniority is that we got screwed by Icahan, and prior TWA management, and
had our retirement frozen. Then turned over to the PBGC in bankruptcy! Unlike yourself, our AA retirement started in 2002, a year after the merger/buyout! Which it should be! Consequently, we have to work longer to get to the same spot you will at 55! ----- Do I like it? Hey guy, you have to do want you gata do!!! And who said life was fair? As for shutting this place down? I personally don't think it'll happen! In fact, I heard a rumor today that we'll be doing the Internet/ cell phone interface mod prototype here at MCIE!