AA applies for Delta's Seattle-Haneda slot

[JFK Fleet Service]

Well, that certainly is indicative of a concise understanding of the business there Goldie.
 
I do enjoy it when the veneer of "Understanding the business" goes out the window and the posts take on a petulant tone.

 

[WorldTraveler]

feel free to call it what you want, but when there are people here that want to tell DL that they are losing in Tokyo when DL has repeatedly said they are profitable and DOT statistics prove DL's Asian operation is profitable, it is hard for those of us who actually know the truth to stomach claims of how well AA will do with LAX-HND if they get it when they have lost money and pulled down as much service as they have to NRT.

 

[700UW]

Its so profitable thats why they are downsizing it!
 
http://blog.wandr.me/2014/08/delta-cuts-in-the-pacific-accelerates-747-retirement/

 

[WorldTraveler]

because you like commavia can't understand that DL's strategy involves moving connecting traffic to nonstops where passengers want to go. a lot of capacity on the 744s to/from NRT was for connectinons to elsewhere in Asia; the 330s and 767s will make sure DL doesn't have to sell connections to Asia via NRT if that isn't the best decision from a network standpoint

DL's share of the shrinking Japanese local market is at the same percentage. AA's share is actually shrinking in terms of percentage. they just think that with another route they can make this one work after multiple Tokyo routes that they haven't been able to make work before.

 

[CMH_GSE]

WT, don't you think that AA has a much better chance to be profitable to Japan from LAX than SEA?

Simple question , yes or no answer please.

 

[robbedagain]

ill answer     No bec DL is far superior to AA and it does not matter what city from the US only dl can make money  bec it is DL

 

[WorldTraveler]

no.

LAX-NRT is one of the largest aviation markets to/from Asia. AA's performance is well below its peers on that route.

to somehow think that AA is going to be profitable flying to a different airport in the same city against 2 competitors which serve both LAX to NRT and HND and get much higher airfares to both than AA gets takes more than fantasy.

the problem is not which airport AA serves. The problem is that AA does not have the size or reputation in the market to gain the high revenue passengers.

I'll have to scratch my head to remember the exact fare but AA was/is selling LAX-NRT gov't contract fares for less than its AVERAGE fares on much shorter routes across the Atlantic.

 

[nevergiveup]

because you like commavia can't understand that DL's strategy involves moving connecting traffic to nonstops where passengers want to go. a lot of capacity on the 744s to/from NRT was for connectinons to elsewhere in Asia; the 330s and 767s will make sure DL doesn't have to sell connections to Asia via NRT if that isn't the best decision from a network standpoint

DL's share of the shrinking Japanese local market is at the same percentage. AA's share is actually shrinking in terms of percentage. they just think that with another route they can make this one work after multiple Tokyo routes that they haven't been able to make work before.

Does DL have mental health benefits?

 

[WorldTraveler]

even if they did, I don't work for them.

you all could take up a collection and I'm sure with it I could buy ObamaCare benefits.

 

[CMH_GSE]

no.LAX-NRT is one of the largest aviation markets to/from Asia. AA's performance is well below its peers on that route.to somehow think that AA is going to be profitable flying to a different airport in the same city against 2 competitors which serve both LAX to NRT and HND and get much higher airfares to both than AA gets takes more than fantasy.the problem is not which airport AA serves. The problem is that AA does not have the size or reputation in the market to gain the high revenue passengers.I'll have to scratch my head to remember the exact fare but AA was/is selling LAX-NRT gov't contract fares for less than its AVERAGE fares on much shorter routes across the Atlantic.

Dude, I gave you a trap door and you refused to take it. This thread might just eventually rise to level of some your other epic melts, depending on the decision made for the route.

 

[commavia]

Does DL have mental health benefits?

 
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sIs8Zh0qKrI
 
It's funny how the history is now being rewritten - surprise, surprise - as if I am/was the one who doesn't, and didn't five years ago, understand that Delta's future in Asia is/was less NRT and more nonstops on smaller planes.  On the contrary, I and many others have been predicting pretty much exactly this outcome for years.  Unfortunately for those promoting this fiction, the statements and predictions made by many - including myself - are still archived and readily available for all to see.

 

[FWAAA]

I agree with you, commavia that the revisionist history is stunning.

The part I don't understand is this: It's a given that Delta has lost money on SEA-HND, given its very low load factors and its almost six-month winter hiatus.

So why not let AA give it a whirl from LAX so that AA can continue to do what it's done since the dawn of aviation - and that's lose hundreds of millions of dollars trying (and failing) by competing from LAX?

Because someone's afraid of competition, that's why.

AA has a proven track record of failure at HND, but it also has a proven record of relinquishing HND frequencies when it fails. That's something Delta doesn't grasp. When AA fails from LAX (as WT has predicted ad nauseum), then DL can re-claim it to begin double daily LAX-HND service.

If AA gets LAX-HND, then AA will serve both NRT and HND from LAX (thru its immunized joint venture), just like the Star joint venture and just like DL. Once that playing field is leveled, then we'll see which airline gets impressive average fares from LAX.

I particularly like the argument that goes like this: AA took a chance and asked for JFK-HND and it failed miserably, and AA humbly relinquished the frequency so that others could fight over it. So when DL "plays keep away" (HA's words, not mine) with its dormant SEA-HND slot and AA asks the DOT to let AA try to use it from a viable gateway, the SEA-incumbent responds with "NO, AA should not get a chance to fly it because it failed so miserably from JFK." All the while ignoring the HND slot timing restrictions that make it impractical to serve any mainland US gateway from HND that is outside the Pacific timezone. And, of course, ignoring DL's HND failure from DTW and now its second HND failure from SEA.

I still doubt that AA gets the frequency, but it's apparent that there's a very real fear present here that AA will win the case.

 

[WorldTraveler]

the only revision is that commavia refuses to acknowledge that DL's share of the US-Japan market is not shrinking. the market is, the amount of connecting traffic is, but DL's share of the local US-Japan market (and v.v.) is not shrinking.

all commavia has to do for me to walk away from the issue is for him to acknowledge that DL is profitable across the Pacific and maintaining its share of the local market in a shrinking market.

And that shrinking local market is precisely why AA has cut capacity and can't get established at NRT. The same principle will apply to HND. worse slot times don't fix the desire for American business people to not fly thru Japan at all - regardless of the airport.

It is not DL or the US gov'ts problem that JL chose to fly from SFO instead of LAX to HND.

That was pure stupidity esp. given that the Open Skies deal which provided HND access gave AA and JL the right to talk.

AA has cancelled SJC, JFK, and SEA to NRT... at least ... and doesn't even operate ORD-NRT on a daily basis. And then we can add in JFK-HND.

There is nothing except AA's own inability to compete in the Japan market that has forced them out.

Adding another key route for them to screw up is not the answer.

you all keep throwing the fear argument out there, but it is not DL that fears AA on the Pacific. Parker will have to deal with the losses at some point. DL is and will be making money to Tokyo and to Asia as a whole.

glad you admitted that you don't think AA will get the route... I don't either.

 

[commavia]

It must be exhausting constantly moving around all those goalposts.
 
Back here in reality - my prediction and the prediction of many others literally years ago was that Delta would progressively dismantle the NRT hub and instead shift focus to nonstops, on smaller aircraft, from U.S. gateways like SEA and DTW.  While that prediction was met with the usual protestations and diatribes, that prediction also turned out to be correct.
 
But since we're holding internet forum truth and reconciliation commissions over past predictions, can someone please remind me - how did that whole Kreskin-like prognostication about Delta dumping capacity across the Pacific to bankrupt JAL turn out?  My memory is getting progressively fuzzier in my old age.
 
Meanwhile, I don't have to "do" anything for anybody - I don't give a %&$# if anyone "walks away" or not.

 

[WorldTraveler]

let's be very clear that if the ONLY issue was that the Pacific market was shrinking, there would have been no debate between us.

but you have repeatedly said that DL is losing in Tokyo.
lo
You obviously don't understand the concept of O&D revenue mgmt.

DL has absolutely increased the number of seats it sells in the local Japan -US market as it has rerouted connecting capacity over NRT to nonstop routes from the US.

As for your repeated preoccupation with DL and AA/JL, if DL hasn't increased capacity or seats available to the local US-Japan market, then it is all the more of an embarrassment and a completely failed strategy on AA's part that AA plus JL is still smaller than JL in the US-Japan market both in terms of combined capacity and in local market share

at least UA and NH combined to create larger combined share than either alone, even though DL is the largest single airline.

further, DL has consistently been profitable across the Pacific over the past several years during the Japan Yen crisis, smoething that UA and AA have not done.

so, are you willing to admit that the market is shrinking, but DL has successfully navigated the changing market, maintained its share, and remained profitable.

If you can admit those things, then we are in agreement.