US/UA Merger Master Thread

[luvthe9]

“With UAL, the seniority list would be wrapped up in a few weeks along with applying for single carrier status which would automatically be prompted since two different unions are involved (unlike US and AWA).

I wonder why the DAL and NWA pilots don't have there list together, Roll one more for me please

 

[prechilill]

I wonder why the DAL and NWA pilots don't have there list together, Roll one more for me please

Their integration (DAL-NWA) is only one month old- your statment above doesn't make any sense.
The expediency of an integration between US and UAL would come from the fact a transition agreement would probably go directly to expedited arbitration since USAPA would try to include a DOH provision into the integration. Once a TA was handed out by an arbitrator a representation election would put ALPA on the property. At that point, most likely arbitration for a combined seniority list would complete the pilot integration. How long could this take? Who knows, but any astute CEO would recognize and deal with the intransigence from the east pilot group and deal with it right out of the starting blocks. But it is hard to say how fast the company could shove the east pilots along because Parker would have to do it with a court judge or an arbitrator every step of the way.
In the end, the majority pilot group has tremendous advantages in dictating timelines- I have learned that from this past integration. However, this time around Parker can simply go to the majority and strike a deal with them ahead of time, exactly what Delta did with their pilots.
All of this assumes the bankers and hedge fund junkies are on board with a merger. With oil going higher and the industry disintegrating more each day, consolidation along with a 25% cut in capacity is inevitable. Rather than wait for the unpredictable to happen though liquidations the CEOs seem to prefer to maintain some control of the situation through consolidation and selected capacity cuts (not to mention the CEOs and bankers make more money this way).

 

[luvthe9]

Their integration (DAL-NWA) is only one month old- your statment above doesn't make any sense.
The expediency of an integration between US and UAL would come from the fact a transition agreement would probably go directly to expedited arbitration since USAPA would try to include a DOH provision into the integration. Once a TA was handed out by an arbitrator a representation election would put ALPA on the property. At that point, most likely arbitration for a combined seniority list would complete the pilot integration. How long could this take? Who knows, but any astute CEO would recognize and deal with the intransigence from the east pilot group and deal with it right out of the starting blocks. But it is hard to say how fast the company could shove the east pilots along because Parker would have to do it with a court judge or an arbitrator every step of the way.
In the end, the majority pilot group has tremendous advantages in dictating timelines- I have learned that from this past integration. However, this time around Parker can simply go to the majority and strike a deal with them ahead of time, exactly what Delta did with their pilots.
All of this assumes the bankers and hedge fund junkies are on board with a merger. With oil going higher and the industry disintegrating more each day, consolidation along with a 25% cut in capacity is inevitable. Rather than wait for the unpredictable to happen though liquidations the CEOs seem to prefer to maintain some control of the situation through consolidation and selected capacity cuts (not to mention the CEOs and bankers make more money this way).

Maybe, but I doubt nothing will go fast and we don't have an astute CEO.

 

[nycbusdriver]

USAPA never would concede anything of the TA because they can't (including the arbitrated seniority list). Parker has probably learned a lot from your group's intransigence and with ALPA coming on the property again it would make the integration much easier since he sees how you guys operate. I would speculate he would appease the UAL pilots with any concerns since they will be the overwhelming majority when this plays out and it will be their union he will be dealing with once the UAL and AWA pilots vote ALPA as the bargaining agent again. You seem to believe this will take three years, but it has taken three years because our two unions messed around with fruitless negotiations, then mediation, and here we are one year after a lengthy arbitration. With UAL, the seniority list would be wrapped up in a few weeks along with applying for single carrier status which would automatically be prompted since two different unions are involved (unlike US and AWA).
By making the cuts before a merger Parker only makes it nearly impossible for the UAL pilots to buy off on his merger. All Parker has to do is wait until after the merger and then return airplanes as the leases come due, perhaps on an accelerates schedule. WIth UAL pilots running the show within one year after an integration, maybe they would allow CLT, PHX and BOS to be downsized. I do not know, it is all speculation at this point. However it seems apparent Doug Parker has learned a lot from the USEast intransigence this past three years and will be planning ahead for your group's protests to a merger. The path of least resistence is to cut the fleet after ALPA is back on the property (which, as I said, would be only a few weeks from merger consummation). Parker can wait a year, otherwise I think he knows he will not be able to sell the merger to the UAL pilots if most of them will be taking the hit- those guys have the numbers, the solidarity and the union support to capitalize on USAPA's pilots.

That planet you live on...is there any oxygen at all there?

 

[BoeingBoy]

Actually, it goes further than Junebug and prechilill say. All the new law says is that seniority integration must provide the protections of Allegheny-Mohawk sections 3 & 13. It does not say that representational issues can only be settled after seniority issues are settled. Nothing prevents both issues from being settled concurrently, as long as A-M applies to the seniority issue.

Given the time line for seniority integration to be settled - no real time limits on negotiation and then depending on the arbitrator's schedule availability if one is necessary - it's not just possible but likely that the representational issue would be settled long before the seniority issues.

Get the representational issue settled and you're faced with the East pilot's claim that a joint contract can be passed by the majority - the UA pilots. That could replace the minimum fleet language in the current TA and LOA 93, making cuts possible in any of the individual pilot groups.

Jim

 

[ThirdSeatHero]

I posted this as a reply to another thread on the UAL boards but it seems to be more of an active topic here.

Just curious how you guys think this unfolds if a merger gets announced soon.


So how do you see it unfolding?

Say for sake of argument that the media is actually correct for once, and UAL & US announce the merger next week.

As you say there will only be 2 pilot groups, ALPA & USAPA.

The UAL list is established, the only list US has is the NIC list. If a merger is announced do you see US management delaying the merger process to allow USAPA time to try and negotiate DOH, or do you see them attempting to merge using the NIC list?

I know this would ultimately have to be worked out between ALPA&USAPA what I don't see is US giving USAPA time to try and negotiate DOH, and the resulting litigation that is sure to follow from the west if they try.

:unsure:

 

[StewGuy86]

Jeez, yet another thread becomes all about pilot unions and the bickering that goes along with it. 🙄

 

[Junebug172]

...resulting litigation that is sure to follow from the west if they try. [/i]

:unsure:

Bingo.

My guess is that an arbitrator will use either the Nic or start from scratch using east and west seniority lists since both sides, as of right now, would be furloughed/upgraded based on their own lists.

And the chances of an arbitrator deviating from Nicolau's methodology is unlikely.

 

[ThirdSeatHero]

Jeez, yet another thread becomes all about pilot unions and the bickering that goes along with it. 🙄

Apologies, wasn't attempting to hi-jack the thread.

For my part, I simply see the pilot seniority issue (East/West) US vs UAL as the biggest potential stumbling block to any proposed merger.

A merger that despite the lack of management on both sides, the inevitable reduction in capacity(and employees), and associated uber egos, I believe is better for all than to leave the two airlines to their individual fates.

JMHO

 

[Junebug172]

...all about pilot unions and the bickering...

Um, what else is there to talk about otherwise?

 

[Elevation]

Going with the "prepackaged Ch. 11" idea for UA: IF this merger were to happen and IF they were to re-enter ch. 11 wouldn't it give UA the ability to rid themselves of all of their RJ contracts? Lord knows we have enough damn RJ's at US to share with the entire industry and since we really can't break any of our contracts there would be quite enough to spread throughout the domestic system and not really have to shrink the mainline fleet as much as some think. Yes there is too much domestic capacity and I feel that most of it is at the regionals. They need to stop paying everybody else to fly our routes and take back the ability make a profit from it.

Good point, United's RJ cost have risen 13% in the last Q and they can't do a damn thing about it.

 

[BoeingBoy]

Good point, United's RJ cost have risen 13% in the last Q and they can't do a damn thing about it.

And US' have risen over 18% YoY.......

Jim

 

[osunut]

Good point, United's RJ cost have risen 13% in the last Q and they can't do a damn thing about it.

Not till 2011 and oh boy are they thinking about it!

 

[prechilill]

It is not that RJ's are no longer affordable- they never were. With costs spiraling out of control (18% yoy according to BB) jet fuel is dictating a restructuring to our domestic air transportation system which probably should have happened long ago. Regardless, we will be living in a world of $120 oil for quite a while. Mergers or not, a drastic reshaping of our industry is upon us- one which is probably of epic proportions. I think this is why we are seeing UAL hunting for a merger partner. Doug can't make money with USAirways (nobody has before him) so where we are as employees is watching each ship next to us taking on water thinking "their days are numbered". Meanwhile, our own feet are getting wet.
Consolidation allows a few advantages for people like Parker and the bankers. Liquidations are costly, mergers are not (in fact, just the opposite). Wall Street and brokerage firms can sell their products, options are issued and a lot of money changes hands which makes even the most solemn banker smile. The biggest obstacle to the UAL US situation at this point is labor. Can they stop it, probably not. The economomic environment dictates the plot much more than they do, but the UAL unions can dictate some terms which the US group may not like too much.
Meanwhile, helicopter Ben keeps pumping liquidity into our broken banking/ brokerage system, inflating the dollar to no end and oil marches higher.

 

[pilot]

Never mind.