Why do you guys ignore the fact that many of your retiring pilots do not provide ANY forward movement? What about the pilots who retire while on furlough? What about those who retire from the right seat, or from medical? They provide no movement at all. So after taking those out of the picture, 2 out of 3 (4 out of 6, for the mathematically challenged) is about right if 4 of 5 accounts for total attrition.
We do not ignore that fact. Each retirement does not necessarily provide movement for everyone, but every retirement provides movement for someone. It's a matter of where you reside on the list relative to the guy retiring. We get it. After all, we weren't hired yesterday!
Heck, You could argue that the East does not lose any of their attrition (as many on the West have nievely proclaimed). I suppose literally this is true. However, given the demographics and the results under NIC, a closer examination shows that practically speaking, the East is negatively impacted in regards to retaining the effective results of their attrition. Since the original order of each respective list does not change, the retirement sequence and the
gross effect is the same. For example, If 1200 East pilots senior to me on the East stand alone list retire, those same 1200 East pilots senior to me will retire from the combined list. Now for a combined list, for each pilot, a unique number of pilots
'x' from the merging partners list will end up senior to them. Some may be older and will retire before them, providing movement (let's call these pilots
'y'). Others will be younger and effectively block movement (let's call these pilots
'z'). In the case of US/AWA, given the demographics of our two airlines, with the East predominantly having the older pilots throughout our list, the latter case is the more dominant senario. The result is that more
'z' pilots end up senior to you than
'y' pilots. Thus, the
net effect for the majority of East pilots is negative relative to pre merge expectactions. For those on the top of the list
'x' is a relatively small number and among those
'x' pilots (
where x=y+z) the percentage of
'z' pilots is even smaller and generally insignificant and acceptable. But as you go down the list the negative consequenses are compounded as the number of
'z' pilots increases to a point that is intolerable to the East under the NIC. So, for those that find themselves on the bottom portion of the East list through no fault of their own, end up with an amount of pilots
'z', that is so large, it prevents them from ever breaking that threshold of seniority to hold Captain when they otherwise would have. Conversely, the opposite is true for the West. For them, under NIC, a majority of their pilots see an amount of pilots
'x' coming in on top of them is more heavily weighted with
'y' (retiring) pilots. Thus, the net effect for the West is positive relative to their stand alone list. I'm willing to bet that the reason the 'relative' method worked so well for the DL/NW merge was because the components of
'y' and
'z' pilots was fairly consistent throughout their combined list.
Having said all of that, the fact remains......in simple terms......the East provides approx. 80% of the total attrition while only realizing 67% in return as a whole. The movement is shifted West.