Are you sure you weren't hired yesterday? You'll have to explain how someone - let's just say #5 on the East seniority list - retiring while out on long term medical provides movement for anyone since he doesn't leave a vacancy behind when he retires. Note: this ignores the two rather long periods when even active line pilot attrition didn't create movement for those junior - US just shrank.
Yes, someone retiring off Medical leave provides no movement when they retire. Thanks for pointing out the obvious. That movement was already realized when that pilot went out on Medical and did not return. Speaking from a standpoint of the 'Seniority List', i.e.; the 'list of names', a pilot's name does not effectively leave the list until retirement. That is when you see movement in the 'list of names', the actual movement may come early, as you pointed out, when someone leaves due to long term medical. For that matter, it's safe to assume you will see more 'early movement' from medical leaves on the East given our demographic. As for your note, yes, that is what happened and yes it could happen again. My model assumes a static (no growth, no shrink) senario.....pretty much what we are seeing and can expect for some time going forward. You, nor I, have the magic crystal ball to nail down the future. I think we can agree growth will have a positive effect for all. Shrinking will have a negative effect.
Effectively block movement? Everybody on the Nic list that is junior to a retiring line pilot moves up a number. No matter whether the retiring line pilot was originally East or West. But I guess not getting all the East and West attrition is considered blocking movement by some.
You're not getting it Jim. Or maybe you're unable to understand given your bias. Yes, this is true. Everybody, East and West, gets all the attrition (East attrition and West attrition) created by the pilots retiring senior to them. The point I am making is that the NIC puts many more 'younger and senior' (and with much less LOS to boot) in front of East pilots effectively blocking their movement to the left seat. Yes, a pilot will move if a retirement occurs senior to them but many East pilots will not cross the threshold of seniority to hold Captain due to the large block of younger pilots placed senior to them by the NIC. Just how many would not upgrade due to NIC that would have otherwise? I don't know the exact number. The only way to really know that number would be to conduct a pilot by pilot analysis. A task I am not willing to take on. But it is safe to say MANY are in this predicament. And this is the problem. No East pilot should lose their upgrade due to this merger, as well as no West pilot should lose their seat due to this merger.
Let's see...East has about 450 pilots on medical, out of about 3300. Deducting those retirements since they don't leave a vacancy behind, your 80% of retirements that come from the East turns into ~69% of potential movement inducing retirements. 69% vs 67% = it's about a wash - actual movement will be more or less what it would have been without a merger. Granted, some of the older more junior East pilots will see less movement while the younger more senior East pilots will see more movement, but overall not much difference.
Fuzzy math Jim. Irregardless of your math, you know as well as I do that the majority of movement comming in the near future and for the next ten years for that matter will be provided by East attrition. I disagree with your movement projections. Actually, the older yet junior East pilots will see more movement in terms of raw numbers in the remaining years they have because they will also see the movement created by the retiring West pilots that were placed senior to them (few as they may be). Problem is, it won't be enough for them to see the left seat because of the road block created by NIC (younger placed senior). This is the net effect. Similarly, the younger yet senior East pilots will also see more movement in terms of raw numbers for the same reason. But still they will not realize the seniority (percentage wise) they would have acheived sans merge. Right or wrong, this is what the NIC has created for the East. For the majority of East pilots this is a hard pill to swallow after putting in many many years and making the sacrifices to keep this place going. If you can't understand this Jim, there is no point discussing this any further with you. Your mind is closed.