UA/UA merger?

[argentomaranello]

BIG]:

The markets are answering the question of whether UAL will file with a resounding YES. (UAL common is trading at the same price U traded at before it filed; UAL listed debt is trading at less than 20 cents on the dollar). The better question is the one you raised as almost an afterthought -- can UAL, once inside Ch.11, gain sufficient savings to obviate further need for the wholesale disposition of its assets being discussed in this string? My point all along (although not articulated with the clarity that I would have liked) has been that UAL will be hobbled even in its efforts at bankruptcy reorganization by its current governance structure and the consequent need to pander to the self-interests of its various union constituancies. As I have observed several times in response to CHIP's point about a clear need to eliminate the ESOP structure at UAL, that can't happen until a Plan of Reorganization is adpoted at the END of UAL's bankruptcy process, AFTER all the critical decisions about labor cost will already have been made. Therefore, in my mind, it is unlikely that UAL will (in this current round of bankruptcy filings) wrest sufficient labor cost concessions from its workforce (either through W-2 cuts or, preferably, via significant headcount reduction) to make its domestic system remotely competitive. The real choice for UAL will be to soldier on in its present form, unable to earn an adequate return on invested capital (if it can earn any return at all!), or to perform radical surgery upon itself and remove that part which is bleeding and can't be fixed -- its domestic route network. UAL's international operation can carry on indefinately, functioning as a private welfare-state for its employees inasmuch as it doesn't (and probably won't) face the relentless low-fare competition from carriers operating on the LUV model; but UAL international, as a standalone, requires assured feed -- which is what the USAir codeshare could provide in spades. Even Glen Tilton will be able to grasp that much!

 

[DCAflyer]

I don't know about Argento, but I'll give you my guess... and by the way everything I predicted on the old board with respect to CWA and IAM has come true (i.e., I was telling the CWA folks two months ago that they are being sold down the river by their union, and they jumped down my throat, well look at their posts now! I said the company would attempt to abrogate their contracts and was told that that can't happen).

But back to UAL and bankruptcy. UAL has a 95 percent or greater chance of filing BK by the end of the year. And I will say an 80 percent or higher chance by the end of October. Union contracts might not be abrogated en toto, but they might be. If not, however, the judge would probably order immediate mediation between the unions and the company and afford the parties a very short time to accomplish this. The TA's will not be opened to the workers for ratification.

And as for all you Chip-bashers, a friend of mine at U HQ indicated that there are very active and vibrant discussions between the two airlines involving a corporate transaction. I submit that every action both companies are taking right now somehow play into this scenario. What the corporate transaction(s) will be I really can't say. I don't think any of us are meant to know right now, so we will just have to speculate what those transactions might be. But suffice it to say, from what I have heard, U will be a very active player in the new scheme. I suspect we will know a little more by the end of the year and know all the details by the end of Q1 in 2003. In any event, we won't know anything until UAL enters bankruptcy.

You can bash me now, if you'd like, but I am only reporting what I heard from someone I believe to be reliable.

 

[ITRADE]

[P]I will agree with the 95% certainty by YE.[/P]
[P]I would say about 90% chance by October. I've heard all over the place that yields for September are awful - basically as bad as September 2001, and Sept. '01 was unreal owing to a grouping of incidents in the Northeast. With this regression of yields, the downward pressure exerted will be substantial. Couple that with the seasonal blues that you have in October and November, and you've got the mix for true financial disaster.[/P]

 

[argentomaranello]

OHCAPTAINRON said UAL will restructure, I am optimistic outside the BK process, here is why. . . Remember market cap 250m. Pilots alone have in excess of 2Billion in B-plan , Plus another 7B in other employee plans. If employees are going to make significant sacrifices anyway, why not do it for ourselves? If we file Could UAL pilots then provide DIP for say another 25%? Take it private reduce post petition costs, then say five years from now bring it public and sell 50 plus percent? very possible would happen as part of a prepetition, don't really need the ATSB at that point do we? With 5.5 Billion in cash and assets UAL would be a powerhouse that it once was. With dramically lower labor costs and restructured debt UAL could price and be profitable in todays new revenue reality.

What has it been -- ten years since Steve Wolf first proposed the UAL ESOP? What we have here is exactly the same idea, and its been touted as the solution to exactly the same problems.

UAL's current sorry state is a direct consequence of the original ESOP. And the proposal is for a new one??

You continue to provide first rate evidence that UAL's workforce remains in denial and that, at the moment, it remains the principal impediment to those basic restructuring reforms (and cost cuts) that are essential to the great airline's survival in its present form. Long shot though it may be, fragmentation of UAL's domestic route network into a revitalized USAir takes on increasing probabilities to the extent that UAL labor continues to titilate itself with quaint notions like a super-ESOP.

 

[chipmunn]

UAL unions craft rescue plan

CHICAGO (Crain's Business News) - A union rescue plan for United Airlines, which labor is aiming to present to the company later this week, is likely to call for a reduction in headquarters jobs and further changes in top management, as well as a significant overhaul of the company's operations to reduce costs.

There will be sizable concessions, but labor is striving for an alternative to the company's call for $9 billion in wage cuts, benefit reductions and work rule changes over six years in order to qualify for a federal loan guarantee and avoid bankruptcy.

There is recognition that United needs immediate cash. But there are other places to find cash flow other than immediate access to employees' paychecks, says a union source, referring to United's top-heavy workforce, hub-and-spoke system and traditional focus on the business traveler.

Late last Friday, United's union leaders signed a letter to Chairman and CEO Glenn Tilton, saying they would present a plan by approximately Sept. 19.

A spokesman for UAL Corp., United's Elk Grove Township-based holding company, declined comment.

Crains Chicago Business 9/14/02

Chip comments: This is exactly the reason the ATSB may require UAL to enter bankruptcy. No company can successfully operate with employees dictating policy to management. Until the UAL governance issue is dealt with, UAL will continue to flounder, run the risk of failure, and possibly be fragmented into US Airways. There is reason to believe this concept/plan if true, will be rejected by the ATSB. Meanwhile, discussions between UA & US management are said to be continuing.

Chip

 

[UAL777flyer]

First let me clarify myself. I am by no means a Chip-basher. I have the utmost respect for Chip and his obvious industry knowledge and refreshing open mind. I also highly respect his going out on a limb repeatedly and being subjected to endless streams of insults and hostility.

I also have a very high amount of respect for Argento and his obvious knowledge on finance and its ins/outs as it relates to the airline industry. He's helped me understand many issues regarding finance that I didn't have a firm grasp of.

That being said, I don't discount that the scenarios they both have proposed (and assuredly others) have been discussed and are being discussed at the highest levels of both airlines (and probably others). These types of strategic scenarios get analyzed constantly, regardless of the situation. To do otherwise would be derelict in duty. But I don't think this type of transaction will occur. Do I think UA will declare Ch.11? Yes. But I don't think all the proper planets can be aligned for a transaction like they propose. I hope I'm right because it would be absolute devastation to the employees of United Airlines.

One previous poster mentioned that pre-9/11 the pilots were discussing taking the company private via an outside investor. It is interesting to note that JUST prior to Glenn Tilton being announced as CEO there was a plan for Gerry Greenwald to be named Chairman of the Board and help buy the remaining non-UA employee ownership and make UA 100% employee-owned. The plan was apparently killed by UA's BOD. Could this deal be revived by the unions in an attempt to avoid a Ch.11 filing that apppears more inevitable with each passing day? I'd be curious to hear Argento's thoughts on this.

 

[ohcaptainron]

[blockquote]
----------------
On 9/17/2002 9:06:46 AM argentomaranello wrote:

OHCAPTAINRON said "UAL will restructure, I am optimistic outside the BK process, here is why. . . Remember market cap 250m. Pilots alone have in excess of 2Billion in B-plan , Plus another 7B in other employee plans. If employees are going to make significant sacrifices anyway, why not do it for ourselves? If we file Could UAL pilots then provide DIP for say another 25%? Take it private reduce post petition costs, then say five years from now bring it public and sell 50 plus percent? very possible would happen as part of a prepetition, don't really need the ATSB at that point do we? With 5.5 Billion in cash and assets UAL would be a powerhouse that it once was. With dramically lower labor costs and restructured debt UAL could price and be profitable in todays new revenue reality."
______________________________________________________________________
________
What has it been -- ten years since Steve Wolf first proposed the UAL ESOP? What we have here is exactly the same idea, and its been touted as the solution to exactly the same problems.


***Actually it was a ALPA that floated the orginal ESOP/buyout, not WOLFE he was late to the party. You may remember that he orginally opposed the concept then agreed to lead it, strange but true.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UAL's current sorry state is a direct consequence of the original ESOP. And the proposal is for a new one??

******That is unfounded, discribe direct consequence?

I would disagree. Lets give credit where credit is due. The former management elected to spend hundreds of millions on the US aquisition, which by all accounts was grossly overpriced and ill timed. But even more tragic was the distraction of the transaction in terms of running the airline.
Management continued their folly with AVOLAR. etc.
Now even a supporter of trade unionism like yourself will have to admit the the ESOP years at UAL were wildly profitable. No? Check the numbers.
Would another ESOP fare as well? Not what I am suggesting, however emphirically it might. What I am suggesting is that if UAL files why not exchange DIP financing for additional equity. The pilots and other employees WILL be taking substancial pay cuts. Why let some third party financial institution reep userous profits from employee contributions ala US Airways.
You must remember employees do own 55%, and while I know you do not like that fact it is a fact nonetheless. Now if it were outside equity say your money I think you might be able to appreciate the issue. So to blame the ESOP for all of the companies mismanagement is not accurate.
**********************************************************************
****

You continue to provide first rate evidence that UAL's workforce remains in denial and that, at the moment, it remains the principal impediment to those basic restructuring reforms (and cost cuts) that are essential to the great airline's survival in its present form. Long shot though it may be, fragmentation of UAL's domestic route network into a revitalized USAir takes on increasing probabilities to the extent that UAL labor continues to titilate itself with quaint notions like a super-ESOP.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
***No, no super esop, I would argue that you do not read well, so I will say it again. The workforce IS NOT IN DENIAL about contributions(pay cuts, contract changes, productivity,work rules etc)necessary to prevent a BK filling.or in the case of filing for that matter.Do they like it? Not any more than the folks at US. Remember it was ALPA that approached the CO. post 9-11 and offered a wage negotiation.. Will UAL employees do what is necessary within the context of the new economic reality, absoulutly. Will they require the same kind of consideration that any investor would require, that YOU would require? We will see, Lets face it, the guys that deal in dollar velocity are going to make alote of money on both of these companies. The employees ARE the primary stakeholders. Will they sit by and watch the airline be dismantled. Or will they do what is necessary? We shall see.

Now your claim of a revitalized US AIRWAYS is conjecture. They have filed a petition, they are under the supervision of the court, there emergence is not guaranteed, they do not have any unecumbered assets, they continue to loose market share and money, they continue to downsize, their board will change, their stated exit strategy is to become a smaller regional carrier which will require a downguage to regional jets, their markets are the most vulnerable to the low cost producers. Will the ATSB funds see them thru the market downturn?
Will they be able to secure contracts from the IAM in order to placate the ATSB? If not then what? What sort of culture will follow? Even if costs are brought down to an economic level does US airways have the depth of leadership that employees can support?

I would argue that US has come to the mountain but now the path becomes steep.

UAL will emerge from its restructuring much stronger than US airways and will end up with network that includes PHl,CLT, BOS. It will have the lowest network costs. Please read what I have said here and in the past, all stakeholders at UAL WILL do what is necessary INCLUDING employees. Count on it

 

[DCAflyer]

Oh Capitain... do you really think UAL will emerge with concessions by all labor groups? Get real! Bankruptcy is right around the corner for UAL and you can bet labor contracts are going to be on the chopping block. And any ESOP equity you enjoyed will be gone. You need to face that here and now. Do you think the very same unions who d1cked over U and its employees are going to do any better for UAL and its labor groups? If anything, they will play harder against the company because they will have to make up for lost revenue from the U labor groups.

The ONLY way UAL will emerge is through bankruptcy and restructuring. They need to dump some of their leases and lower costs overall, and the leasing companies have demonstrated in U's case that it won't be happening short of Chapter 11.

The reason UAL couldn't get a CEO with airline experience is because nobody... Mullen, Bethune... is that they dinted want to deal with UAL's labor. If you think an oilman is going to do any better by you, think again.

 

[UAL777flyer]

Chip,

I don't see how the ATSB can dictate that UA declare bankruptcy if the possibility exists that they can restructure absent a Ch. 11 filing. Granted that would mean no ATSB loan guarantees. But who knows? Maybe this comprehensive union proposal will get the ball rolling. I'm not optimistic that it will do the trick, but I'm hopeful it'll be a good start at a solution. However, time is short for UA. And I truly feel bankruptcy is on final, about to intercept the localizer!

As for the ATSB trying to dictate that UA declare Ch.11, I think that's a clear conflict of interest and proof positive that the Feds hold all the cards in this game and can shape the outcome to their liking irregardless of the impact it will have on the employees of the airline in question and the communities they serve.

The sad fact is that UA wasted the last year doing absolutely NOTHING to address the problems. In fact, our problems only got worse. Labor simply refused to deal with a temporary CEO and incompetent, ineffective leaders like Dutta/Studdert. The board should have started a permanent CEO search immediately after naming Creighton our temporary leader. We then could have had a new leader in place by early 2002 and could have been well on our way to a successful restructuring absent the bankruptcy court. It's simply unconscionable to me that we wasted such precious time. We have nobody but ourselves to blame. For too long, we've been unable to get out of our own way. Hopefully, we can start to reverse that trend. But the sand is slipping through the hour glass. If major moves aren't made soon, bankruptcy will shortly follow.

I disagree with the notion that an oilman for CEO won't be able to save this company. While airline experience is certainly a plus, what UA needs is a LEADER. Period. All the airline experience in the world won't amount to a hill of beans if he can't lead the workforce. Goodwin and Dutta had the knowledge. They just couldn't lead a thirsty man to a water fountain! So they went after a proven leader. Tilton is being touted as that kind of person. Great communicator. Honest, open, consistent, fair. Those are all traits that UA needs from it's leader. If he can repair the fractured relationship that exists amongst the workforce, the rest of the necessary business decisions can be made. While Dutta and Studdert and some others were clear failures in their roles, UA has a solid core of knowledgeable people that can get the job done with the right leadership in place. So the fact that Tilton is an oilman could be irrelevant if he is able to make the necessary changes and lead by example.

 

[cavalier]

“If he can repair the fractured relationship that exists amongst the workforce, the rest of the necessary business decisions can be madeâ€￾


This one little sentence carries so much weight and truth. A disgruntled labor force can bring down the mighty titan far easier than any outside force. I don’t envy the UAL labor force clearly understanding their position. I don’t have the business knowledge being posted in this thread. But I do understand human nature a little. It will take not just a great businessman to fix UAL’s woes, he will also need to be Dale Carnegie’s offspring.

 

[ohcaptainron]

[blockquote]
----------------
On 9/17/2002 3:01:07 PM DCAflyer wrote:

Oh Capitain... do you really think UAL will emerge with concessions by all labor groups? Get real!------------------
-------------------------------------------------**************************************************
OK, here comes real, yes I do think that concessions will come from ALL stakeholders.There simply is no other choice in the long run. Will the employees at UAL roll over ala US airwas, six year contracts, no shared upside,will see? personnaly I think that would be a mistake.-------------


Bankruptcy is right around the corner for UAL and you can bet labor contracts are going to be on the chopping block. And any ESOP equity you enjoyed will be gone. You need to face that here and now. -----------------------------------------**************************************************-Well you said alote here. While Bankruptcy seems to be a foregone conclusion for many on this board, based on very recent information I have received, I do not currently agree. The company IS having good success in renegotiations with suppliers.
Look for a proposal from the union coalition that attempts to fix three crucial areas,1) Access to capital markets.2)Drasticly reducing costs.3)and an attempt to placate ATSB, on a side note there may be more movement and flexability from the ATSB than was present yesterday.The briefing I attended does not rule out BK, but the stark economic and POLITICAL reality is if UAL files AMR WILL file within 30 DAYS.The entire airline industry is at RISK of imploding if UAL files. ESOP goverance will continue, ESOP stock value questionable?Nuff said.*********************************************----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Do you think the very same unions who d1cked over U and its employees are going to do any better for UAL and its labor groups? ---------------------------------------------------------------**************************************************
Well I really don't know, I think they are taking a stance to try to control our collective futures that represents a balance for all involved. Not rollover like US airwas but attempt to do what is required.The real problem is going to be selling the equality of sacrafice, but if we cannot then we will within a BK proceeding.******************-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------If anything, they will play harder against the company because they will have to make up for lost revenue from the U labor groups.-------------**************************************************
Not likly, look at your most recent IAM vote.-----**************************************************--------------------------------------------------
The ONLY way UAL will emerge is through bankruptcy and restructuring. They need to dump some of their leases and lower costs overall, and the leasing companies have demonstrated in U's case that it won't be happening short of Chapter 11.-----------------------------------------------**************************************************As I said BK is NOT the only option currently. The leasing companies are very interested in talking with UAL significant progress is being made as we speak. If the goverment does not start assuming some relief for insurance, security, and relieve the tax burden all bets are off. Lets not forget about revenue if its not there count on a BK by the whole industry.*****************************************
--------------------------------------------------
The reason UAL couldn't get a CEO with airline experience is because nobody... Mullen, Bethune... is that they dinted want to deal with UAL's labor. If you think an oilman is going to do any better by you, think again.------------------------------------------------------------------***I will restate what I have already said many times. UAL needs a leader, with vision and credability, Mullen are you kidding? Baffone, please your killing me. I do not share your opinion of these two leaders, to say I am overwelmed that they were NOT chosen or accepted is an understatement. Neither one brings anything new to the table. The fact we have someone from outside the industry is refreshing. UAL has plenty of suits that can and will do the due dilligence necessary to get MR. Tilton up to speed. Time will tell. Good luck to all of us.

----------------
[/blockquote]

 

[oldiebutgoody]

Captain Ron,
Your insensibilities, which are shared by many at UAL, will be the reason UAL goes chapter 11. You refuse to think outside the box, and instead are focussed on what is best for YOU as an individual. Chapter 11 will likely happen no matter what kind of concession UAL's employees agree to, if for no other reason than to void the ESOP and change the composition of the BOD. The UAL Employee Owner concept has NEVER worked long term in ANY industry (that I know of) and has been a dismal failure at UAL. You, and many at UAL, have NO CONCEPT of just how large the concessions will be that the company asks for, but I would begin to reduce debt and shift to a less expensive lifestyle soon If I were you. I'll bet before too long you'll be looking for a merger or codeshare partner with as much to offer as U, just to save your hide. Heaven help UAL if U gets snatched up by NWA or another suitor, as I do not think that UAL would make it out of chapter 11 in that case. The reality is soon to come to UAL, and shortly will be arriving at AMR and others.

 

[ohcaptainron]

[blockquote]
----------------
Chipper says:

Chip comments: This is exactly the reason the ATSB may require UAL to enter bankruptcy. No company can successfully operate with employees dictating policy to management. Until the UAL governance issue is dealt with, UAL will continue to flounder, run the risk of failure, and possibly be fragmented into US Airways. There is reason to believe this concept/plan if true, will be rejected by the ATSB. Meanwhile, discussions between UA & US management are said to be continuing.

Chip
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------**************************************************
First I would agree that no company can exist with the employees dictating policy nor would I expect a company to survive without employee input and empowerment. Chipper, you may be interested to know that the front running plan going foward does not include succesful particapation by the ATSB. They will file a revised application. So if that plan is succesful than the ATSB cannot compel UAL to file now can they? I would argue they would'nt do that anyway. And I am also realistic about how fluid this situation is. However, you might be interested in knowing that the ATSB is currently not expected to turn down a UAL revised application. Seems like Carty down at AMR is talking loudy and frequently about AMR seeking BK protection within 30 days of any move by UAL. Talking about the end of the industry, here. Kinda what I told you about before. Seems like we will be hearing more and more about the industry's demise in the days ahead. Looks like AMR sees the ATSB loan to UAL out of BK is a better result than in BK with or without the loan.
Looks like we will be parking 767-200s, possibly a few more 400s pending lease renegotiation.

Our analyst see a much smaller regional US airways and that is one reason the ATSB application was requested to be non public.
Look for Delta and AMR to step up pressure on US in the next several months, not me saying this, our analyst. Again what we are hearing is that US airways hubs will not be profitable in the new regional model and eventually WILL be sold to a restructured UAL. HINT HINT, the reorganized UAL will have a very low cost component, feeding our hubs, seems like the company is aware of the fact that with the code share UAL does not get the revenue unless UAL fly's it. Simple enough. Based on this info I would quess UAL restructures it fleet down this line. 757-737 gone. A greatly expanded airbus fleet, our's, yours, and new one's. This new entity would be a very low cost carrier, with the network economies of scale. Again, while I been saying this all along, the high priced suits are making this forcast. Sorry if this does not fall into your agenda driven opinion. It is what is . Good luck
----------------
[/blockquote]

 

[ohcaptainron]

[blockquote]
----------------
On 9/18/2002 6:51:06 PM oldiebutgoody wrote:

Captain Ron,
Your insensibilities, which are shared by many at UAL, will be the reason UAL goes chapter 11.-------------------------*************And you mean what exactly? *************You refuse to think outside the box, and instead are focussed on what is best for YOU as an individual. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------************************************************************
On the contrary, I have realized for the last twenty four years or so that my future is directly affected by the fortunes of the company I work for and the collective contributions I and other employees make on a daily basis. **************************************************----------------------------------------------------------------------Chapter 11 will likely happen no matter what kind of concession UAL's employees agree to, if for no other reason than to void the ESOP and change the composition of the BOD. **************************************************

While you may be right it is not a foregone conclusion. I quess you should be worried that the US airways pilots will now have a seat on the board*******************************************************__________
_____________________________________________ The UAL Employee Owner concept has NEVER worked long term in ANY industry (that I know of) and has been a dismal failure at UAL.

You, and many at UAL, have NO CONCEPT of just how large the concessions will be that the company asks for, ---------************************************************** You are wrong, I know exactly what they are asking for and I also know what we will be offering, and the two are very close.********************************************----------but I would begin to reduce debt and shift to a less expensive lifestyle soon If I were you. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------**************************************************
Already have, down to one airplane, one boat,three houses and three cars same wife same kids. Also do not need a salary from UAL, but thanks for your concern.******************************************----------.I'll bet before too long you'll be looking for a merger or codeshare partner with as much to offer as U, just to save your hide.-----------------------------------------------------------------------
**************************************************
Yea, I am hoping for DELTA when the DALNWCO code share gets turned down.*****************************************************************
****************************--------------------------------------------------- Heaven help UAL if U gets snatched up by NWA or another suitor, as I do not think that UAL would make it out of chapter 11 in that case. The reality is soon to come to UAL, and shortly will be arriving at AMR and others.
--------------------------------------------------
I agree, heaven help us all, good luck.

 

[oldiebutgoody]

[blockquote]
----------------
On 9/18/2002 6:59:02 PM ohcaptainron wrote:

[blockquote]
----------------
Chipper says:

Chip comments: This is exactly the reason the ATSB may require UAL to enter bankruptcy. No company can successfully operate with employees dictating policy to management. Until the UAL governance issue is dealt with, UAL will continue to flounder, run the risk of failure, and possibly be fragmented into US Airways. There is reason to believe this concept/plan if true, will be rejected by the ATSB. Meanwhile, discussions between UA & US management are said to be continuing.

Chip
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------**************************************************
First Chipper I would agree that no company can exist with the employees dictating policy nor would I expect a company to survive without employee input and empowerment. Chipper, you may be interested to know that the front running plan going foward does not include succesful particapation by the ATSB. They will file a revised application. So if that plan is succesful than the ATSB cannot compel UAL to file now can they? I would argue they would'nt do that anyway. And I am also realistic about how fluid this situation is. However, you might be interested in knowing that the ATSB is currently not expected to turn down a UAL revised application. Seems like Carty down at AMR is talking loudy and frequently about AMR seeking BK protection within 30 days of any move by UAL. Talking about the end of the industry, here. Kinda what I told you about before. Seems like we will be hearing more and more about the industry's demise in the days ahead. Looks like AMR sees the ATSB loan to UAL out of BK is a better result than in BK with or without the loan.
Looks like we will be parking 767-200s, possibly a few more 400s pending lease renegotiation.

Our analyst see a much smaller regional US airways and that is one reason the ATSB application was requested to be non public.
Look for Delta and AMR to step up pressure on US in the next several months, not me saying this, our analyst. Again what we are hearing is that US airways hubs will not be profitable in the new regional model and eventually WILL be sold to a restructured UAL. HINT HINT, the reorganized UAL will have a very low cost component, feeding our hubs, seems like the company is aware of the fact that with the code share UAL does not get the revenue unless UAL fly's it. Simple enough. Based on this info I would quess UAL restructures it fleet down this line. 757-737 gone. A greatly expanded airbus fleet, our's, yours, and new one's. This new entity would be a very low cost carrier, with the network economies of scale. Again, while I been saying this all along, the high priced suits are making this forcast. Sorry if this does not fall into your agenda driven opinion. It is what is . Good luck
----------------
[/blockquote]

----------------
[/blockquote]
I wouldn't believe any of this until I actually saw it for a couple of reasons. First, UAL doesn't even have a CONDITIONAL loan approval. Competitors with a lot of political pull will be trying for their lives to ensure that UAL doesn't qualify. Second, how can you have ANY idea of what the corporation's plans are. You indicated that you knew what UAL was going to ask for in concessions; you must mean what they asked for last time. I think the new reality will be shades of magnitude larger, possibly more than U pilots gave (as a percentage of total benefit package). I'll just wait and see. I think this industry is about to be shaken up and will likely NOT resemble anything like it is today. I witnessed how difficult it was to get all of U's employees on board, and they had been facing reality for a long time. I don't see how UAL has a hope of matching this in a couple of weeks. This is going to be a very interesting autumn. One thing's for sure, NOTHING IS A DONE DEAL!