TWU and the Company reached a Tentative Agreement

This was an article, not the presentation prepared by the Boyd group. Delta bankruptcy had nothing to do with the projection of record profits for the airlines.


Another article for the AMFA crystal ball gazers to scoff at, even though it was written just prior to our 1995 Negotiations and included and another negative forecast by Mr. Boyd.


Airline industry in dire straits as majors risk collapse




Airlines in bankrupty

Aloha -- Dec. 2004
ATA -- Oct. 2004
US Airways* -- Sept. 2004
Hawaiian -- March 2003
United -- Dec. 2002

* second time

What happens if a major U.S. airline dies? Or two or three? At the moment, a multicarrier collapse seems unlikely -- but, then again, so did oil prices per barrel remaining in the high $40s or an airline losing $2.2 billion in a quarter or $5.2 billion in a year, as Delta just reported.

Most industry analysts think United has too much value and investor interest to die -- assuming it cuts pension costs by terminating its defined-benefit plans -- and US Airways received a new lease on life through at least June, thanks to the federal Air Transportation Stabilization Board.



Airline industry in dire straits as majors risk collapse

Airlines in bankruptcy
Aloha -- Dec. 2004
ATA -- Oct. 2004
US Airways* -- Sept. 2004
Hawaiian -- March 2003
United -- Dec. 2002

* second time

What happens if a major U.S. airline dies? Or two or three? At the moment, a multicarrier collapse seems unlikely -- but, then again, so did oil prices per barrel remaining in the high

Most industry analysts think United has too much value and investor interest to die -- assuming it cuts pension costs by terminating its defined-benefit plans -- and US Airways received a new lease on life through at least June, thanks to the federal Air Transportation Stabilization Board.

Nonetheless, rarely if ever has the industry seen so many U.S. airlines in such dire straits. Five carriers are in Chapter 11 and others are losing hundreds of millions of dollars per year. Many are shaky enough that they may be one labor strike, economic downturn, major oil-price spike or terrorist act away from financial collapse. Their margin of error is slim.

It is precarious, and something could snap, said aviation consultant Michael Boyd, who considers a multicarrier liquidation highly unlikely, but possible. Boyd is president of the Boyd Group in Evergreen, Col., a consulting firm that just completed an analysis of the likely impact of a US Airways failure.

Boyd didn't sound as optimistic about the short term 94/95 profit picture as some of you AMFA fortune remember it. But then , you know things nobody else does. If you don't know it, you'll invent it.


Give it up Realityfossil, you don't even understand what you're posting. You should be playing Bingo at an assisted living complex.
 
You should've seen the TWU big wig GLESS at Al "Blackie" Blackman's 70 year celebration yesterday..
He was up there on that podium looking as if he was worth every bit of his $183000 a year salary.
Were Jim Little and Tom Horton around?
 
Still want to vote YES???

Financial results for second quarter of 2012 are out.
$6.5 Billion in Quarterly Revenue, Highest in Company History
Net Profit of $95 Million, Excluding Reorganization and Special Items, a $381 Million Improvement Over a Year Ago
Net Loss of $241 Million; Operating Income of $142 Million


Cash Position
AMR ended the second quarter with approximately $5.8 billion in cash and short-term investments, including a restricted cash balance of $772 million, compared to a balance of approximately $5.6 billion in cash and short-term investments, including a restricted balance of approximately $457 million, at the end of the second quarter of 2011.
At Nov. 30, 2011, the company had approximately $4.8 billion in cash and short-term investments, including a restricted cash balance of $693 million.

http://finance.yahoo...-110000368.html

This is with our contracts in place. No concessions given yet. We are being played for fools by our own union. Do not believe the fear tactics. AA is making money and lots of it. VOTE NO!! Lets get a real contract in place.

Vote Yes to get screwed. Vote NO to get screwed.

Yes, means we're locked in for 6 long years? YEAH its true. Read the scope clause in the new TA.
No change in working conditions, pay, and work rules until 2018 at the end of the contract.
Merger or no merger, makes no diff!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
So if AA merges with US, our brothers over there will be making more than us with much better medical until 2018. But, hey, someone said that if a new union takes over, then they can file to reopen the existing contract in 6 months. Is this true or is it just a bunch of bolongna? And why would the co. OK any of that for a different union, with the history making concessions in place firmly which gaurantee huge yearly profits for the new company?
They would just be using the same ol' foot dragging strategy of the past just to keep the staus quo alive and well.

Interesting that the pilots vote deadline is the same for M&R. Gee, I wonder who arranged that? So we can't use the pilots decision to help us decide. Great. and if you are comparing pay and benefits, don't forget to calculate the incr. in medical.

OK, if the judge abrogates, the co. slaps us with the terms, or anything else they can devise.
Then take the hit, and wait for merger mania and a contract that eventually is ratified. I wonder about the terms of the TWU/US agreement. When, what, and how long to wait? Lots of unknowns here.

How many AMT's would like the idea of OSM in the hangar? Well, per TA, its 25% of total base Title 1 numbers, and do the math people!!!!! It comes out to about 1100 max. new OSM in the hangar, using today's senority list numbers. The new OSM will be making lots less for doing AMT work. Think of the millions in savings over the life of the 6 yr. contract, plus setting a new anti-AMT precedent in the industry. Vote YES and the new OSM will make $10,000 less per year.

Vote NO and the new OSM will make $22,500 less per year?? Add huge increases to medical copays and coinsurance and we are talking about a HUGE paycut here!!!! But with continued negotiations and US waiting in the hallway, there is pressure on the co. to deal.

OK, now talking about 7 day coverage for whole maint. base. Takes more heads right? Will co. just increase headcount with new OSM's? 1100 is a huge number. What would you do if you were in the beancounter's shoes?

Food for thought. Someone said, if we give up benefits and they are gone forever. Its a hard decision to make.
 
Sam Cierri and John Hewett were answering questions today at Tule in a little conference room in hangar 2. When asked what would happen if we voted no they said it was "The end of the ballgame." and that it was "Over" and that our contract would be abrogated and the term sheet imposed. Later on Hewett admitted that we would still negotiate but we would not have any leverage. I asked him since we were told in 89 and 2003 that the language in our prefunded medical made it BK proof and they say they can't use it as leverage then which is the lie? Is it BK proof or not. Cierri said they didn't know. (Great answer, but it means there still is a lie in there somewhere.) Then I explained to them that when I see a stock clerk or fleet service clerk the only thing I think about is that if they call in sick they get a full day's pay and the AMTs don't. I told him that I was sure there were laws against discrimination and if the company refused to grant us this benefit that every other work group enjoys at AA then why aren't we suing them? I also asked if the company did offer it and it was barganed away for something else, what was it barganed away for. Sam would not look me in the eye when he said AA never offered it then ignored me when I asked why we weren't suing them. As many of you know the company did offer sick time back and it was traded away for something. I have been told it was traded for a title 2 raise, but would like for someone to say exaclty what it was traded for. Or if AA expected us to "Buy" a benefit that was never taken from anyone else. which would be grounds for another law suit in my opinon. Sam also said that they didn't save the 6th week of vacation because the cost didn't justify the small amount of people it would affect. I pointed out that in Tule it would affect about 80% of us by the end of the contract. He had no response to that. I didn't want to monopolize the time so I left to give others the chance, but before I left Sam was asked if it is inevitable that our work will be sent overseas then when do we accept it and salvage pay and benefits for those that are left with jobs since we realistically can't work for the pay and benefits of a third world country? Sam said "That's not what we're about." This is proof that the TWU will continue to trade our pay and benefits for jobs. I saw many angry people in that area and I am guessing it didn't get any better throughout the day. VOTE NO
 
Realityck, why do you support the TWU?



As an AMT, I’ve been through the struggle brought on by Deregulation that was introduced in 1978, whose full effect didn’t hit the airline unions until the early 1980’s. Although some members, as they do now, claimed it was all a farce and we should just strike and shut the company down, in 1983 the TWU’s membership in a +75% ratification vote, decided to deal realistically with the issues that threatened us all.


Under these adverse conditions even though every union struggled to protect their respective members, most carriers were eventually forced to file for Bankruptcy. Some several times, and some went out of business altogether because their managements’ couldn’t adapt and compete in the new deregulated environment.

There were no easy answers then, and there aren’t any now.

I’ve seen and heard the AMFA rallying cry for most of my career at American. I’d even spoken to Delle on one of his visits to meet with AA AMT’s. I was not impressed with his grasp of the problems we faced, nor how he intended to deal with them. His advice to me then was “Management will recognize that we’re professionals, and address our concerns”. That sounded great, but my experience with management up to that point convinced me he was pretty naïve in his understanding of how to deal with the company.

Subsequent actions by AMFA like the NWA strike strategy that led to the loss of thousands of AMT jobs by blindly walking into a strike they couldn’t win, convinced me I should stay with and support the TWU. There’s no doubt in my mind they were set up by a calculating management, but it was also a classic case where AMFA’s (Delle’s) rallying cry of “we never gave concessions” forced him into a corner that he couldn’t get out of.

I firmly believe that the 2010 T/A which was recommended by the TWU, while not all we would have liked it to be, would have addressed some of the issues we needed corrected, and positioned us to fight another day. I also have a problem with the “just vote no” mentality that many of the AMFA supporters/sympathizers have. It reminds me of Delle’s naïve approach in expecting some miracle to save us from ourselves should the T/A fail, the Judge revoke the contracts, and leave us hanging on the end of a rope while the NMB muddles through some unknown exercise that has failed to produce anything of value to us yet.

Do I believe everything this or any other union does is above reproach, no. But neither do I believe jumping off a cliff just to prove you can, will do anything to enhance our careers and provide for the security of our families.

BTW, I walked the TWU picket line on the 21day strike in 69, and have been suspended for “alleged” job actions, so I have no problem with confrontations. What I do have a problem with is blindly following the pied pipers in our midst who preach the just say no theme without a clue as to how that’s going to drastically change the situation we’ve placed ourselves in by turning down the 2010 T/A.
 
Realityck, on 18 July 2012 - 03:13 PM, said:

BTW, I walked the TWU picket line on the 21day strike in 69, and have been suspended for “alleged” job actions, so I have no problem with confrontations.


No you didn't...good story you made up. Enjoyed it :blink:

you funny realityck.....there goes any creability you had! not that you had any to begin with.
 
As an AMT, I’ve been through the struggle brought on by Deregulation that was introduced in 1978, whose full effect didn’t hit the airline unions until the early 1980’s. Although some members, as they do now, claimed it was all a farce and we should just strike and shut the company down, in 1983 the TWU’s membership in a +75% ratification vote, decided to deal realistically with the issues that threatened us all.

Yeah, and was it not an AFL-CIO supported Democract that signed deregulation into law that started full effect in the 1980's?


Under these adverse conditions even though every union struggled to protect their respective members, most carriers were eventually forced to file for Bankruptcy. Some several times, and some went out of business altogether because their managements’ couldn’t adapt and compete in the new deregulated environment.

There were no easy answers then, and there aren’t any now.

You are describing what is still evident today, after years of more of the same AFL-CIO failed strategy and the idea that our fight is in the Political Arena for over 30 years since deregulation was made law. You would think that after 30 years, if the AFL-CIO really had any clout at all, we would not still be living the same nightmare from so long ago.

I’ve seen and heard the AMFA rallying cry for most of my career at American. I’d even spoken to Delle on one of his visits to meet with AA AMT’s. I was not impressed with his grasp of the problems we faced, nor how he intended to deal with them. His advice to me then was “Management will recognize that we’re professionals, and address our concerns”. That sounded great, but my experience with management up to that point convinced me he was pretty naïve in his understanding of how to deal with the company.

Delle is retired and you still drag the man through the mud and attack him. Why?

Robert Crandall made the statement in the 1980's that he recognized our skill and stated he didn't have a problem increasing our pay, but he had a problem over paying the non-skilled jobs more than market rate. I heard him say this myself at a Town Hall Meeting in Tulsa, Oklahoma.


Subsequent actions by AMFA like the NWA strike strategy that led to the loss of thousands of AMT jobs by blindly walking into a strike they couldn’t win, convinced me I should stay with and support the TWU. There’s no doubt in my mind they were set up by a calculating management, but it was also a classic case where AMFA’s (Delle’s) rallying cry of “we never gave concessions” forced him into a corner that he couldn’t get out of.

Nobody blindly walked into a strike. Your version of the facts or opinions are simply wrong. NWA Management was demanding over 50% of the work to outsourced, at least half of the membership to be RIF'd, and the NWA AMT's that would have been left, voted not to walk over the corpses of their fellow AMT's to keep a job. They voted to STRIKE, and they did take a stand. There was nothing BLIND about it at all. It was more transparent than any action by the TWU in my 28 years at AA.


I firmly believe that the 2010 T/A which was recommended by the TWU, while not all we would have liked it to be, would have addressed some of the issues we needed corrected, and positioned us to fight another day. I also have a problem with the “just vote no” mentality that many of the AMFA supporters/sympathizers have. It reminds me of Delle’s naïve approach in expecting some miracle to save us from ourselves should the T/A fail, the Judge revoke the contracts, and leave us hanging on the end of a rope while the NMB muddles through some unknown exercise that has failed to produce anything of value to us yet.

The reason for the NO Vote was because the 2003 Concessions for jobs approach failed, management lied and they took their bonuses for years, and nobody wanted to give another concession and they damn sure no longer trusted neither the TWU or AA Management. You have no proof of a single fear claim you use regarding this T/A failing. You are simply scared to take a stand. That is why nobody any longer buys into the "fight another day" mantra from TWU leaders. "Another Day" never comes.


Do I believe everything this or any other union does is above reproach, no. But neither do I believe jumping off a cliff just to prove you can, will do anything to enhance our careers and provide for the security of our families.

I am not jumping off of any cliff. I am exercising my right under Federal Law to have open debate, instigate dicussion, and card signing to remove the TWU. I view our demise as we have already jumped from the cliff long ago, and we should stop the fall before we get to the bottom.


BTW, I walked the TWU picket line on the 21day strike in 69, and have been suspended for “alleged” job actions, so I have no problem with confrontations. What I do have a problem with is blindly following the pied pipers in our midst who preach the just say no theme without a clue as to how that’s going to drastically change the situation we’ve placed ourselves in by turning down the 2010 T/A.

Nobody was blind, there were more details about the T/A than ever before. There were specific reasons given for voting NO and those that agreed followed, but there was no BLIND to it.

Blindly following is what we all used to have to do before the internet, because all we had was one sided fear laced TWU propaganda.

Your user name is RealityCk and yet your views are not anywhere close to what reality is from my seat in the theater of AMT destruction.
 
I respect anyone's opinion and will not judge them because I disagree. I realize that AMFA is not perfect and they do have their faults. I also believe that the NW strike was doomed when TWU, IAM, UAW, Teamsters and all other unions that represent airline workers refused to help in the cause. Not only did this damage the NW employees, but ended up destroying the pay and benefits of all airline unionized employees. It is obvious that the TWU is willing to bargan my wages and benefits away in order to keep the head count up and/or to better a non-skilled work group. How else do you explain the inferior benefits that Maint.& Related are forced to live with? I have been a member of TWU for 27 years and have been sold out in 89,95,2003 and now again. I don't know for sure what AMFA can do, but I am willing to give them a chance. TWU is determined to destroy my way of life and will not rest until all members make the same pay no matter what the job. They will happily take money from AMTs and hand it to stock clerks and fleet service clerks. Why did we take a much bigger pay and benefit cut in 2003? Was it because we got a raise in 2001 since the bar for AMT pay in the rest of the industry went much higher than what we were getting at AA? Are we still being punished for it today? I truly think so. So for me it all comes down to this. I am the lowest paid AMT and have the least amount of benefits in the entire airline industry and my union is coming up with new ways to go even lower. In 2003 we said we would take pay cuts but leave our benefits alone and the TWU didn't listen because dues income would have gone down. They took care of the international and sold us out. I simply can't afford to keep them around.
 
By the way Dave I remember the Crandall thing a little differently. I believe at the time he was trying to sell the 89 fiasco that was referred to by the TWU as an "Industry leading contract" That gave away our free medical (the others didn't pay for medical until they went through BK) and also made us prefund our own retirement medical. I do remember Cradall saying he refused to pay someone $25 an hour to throw a bag. But I also remember him saying that a mechanic was a mechanic no matter if they worked for Jiffy Lube or an airline. I did not take that to mean he respected our profession at all. He also slammed supervisors and said they didn't need to know anything about the jobs of the people they supervised and they were just leaders and should lead. And I remember him saying if you didn't like the money he was offering you could quit or get a better job inside the company. I have to admit that I was never a Bob Crandall fan because of this. But this was when the TWU started training us to shut up and vote yes. We voted no in 89 and then TWU came back with the same exact deal with less money and scared enough people into voting yes. So I am thinking that we are referring to two different president's conferences at two different times. I would guess that if Crandall ever said he didn't mind paying mechanics it was not during contract negotiations so it is quite possible he said it at one point. I just don't remember him ever saying it. But the end result was that they did pay $25 to throw bags and mechanics were not ever respected nor compensated accordingly.
 
By the way Dave I remember the Crandall thing a little differently. I believe at the time he was trying to sell the 89 fiasco that was referred to by the TWU as an "Industry leading contract" That gave away our free medical (the others didn't pay for medical until they went through BK) and also made us prefund our own retirement medical. I do remember Cradall saying he refused to pay someone $25 an hour to throw a bag. But I also remember him saying that a mechanic was a mechanic no matter if they worked for Jiffy Lube or an airline. I did not take that to mean he respected our profession at all. He also slammed supervisors and said they didn't need to know anything about the jobs of the people they supervised and they were just leaders and should lead. And I remember him saying if you didn't like the money he was offering you could quit or get a better job inside the company. I have to admit that I was never a Bob Crandall fan because of this. But this was when the TWU started training us to shut up and vote yes. We voted no in 89 and then TWU came back with the same exact deal with less money and scared enough people into voting yes. So I am thinking that we are referring to two different president's conferences at two different times. I would guess that if Crandall ever said he didn't mind paying mechanics it was not during contract negotiations so it is quite possible he said it at one point. I just don't remember him ever saying it. But the end result was that they did pay $25 to throw bags and mechanics were not ever respected nor compensated accordingly.

I am no liar!
 
I am no liar!

Ah yes nobody likes being called a Liar Dave, Others aren't liars either, everyone is in different situations so they see things from different perspectives, also not everyone has the same Memory, so some people forget exactly what happened in the past that does not make them a liar it makes them forgetful ...... big difference, I don't call anyone a Liar unless I know for sure that they know what their saying is not true & it's just not that they have forgotten something or saw events from a different perspective or that they believe what their saying is true.

I had the pleasure of meeting AC Tyker today for the first time, thought he was a really nice guy just as he is on the Forum, also had the pleasure of meeting Buck he was a nice guy in person as well, Dave is a nice guy in person as well ..... believe it or not. ;-) we are all in different situations so we see things from different perspectives, we should all respect each others views & we can agree to disagree like Gentlemen, I have noticed that it isn't that hard to do when discussing issues in person with someone but for some reason some people become very different people when their on the other side of a keyboard.

We all have our different Agenda's some will lose & some will win that is life, no reason we can't be nice about it though, being a a$$ never help's anything.
 
I respect anyone's opinion and will not judge them because I disagree. I realize that AMFA is not perfect and they do have their faults. I also believe that the NW strike was doomed when TWU, IAM, UAW, Teamsters and all other unions that represent airline workers refused to help in the cause. Not only did this damage the NW employees, but ended up destroying the pay and benefits of all airline unionized employees. It is obvious that the TWU is willing to bargan my wages and benefits away in order to keep the head count up and/or to better a non-skilled work group. How else do you explain the inferior benefits that Maint.& Related are forced to live with? I have been a member of TWU for 27 years and have been sold out in 89,95,2003 and now again. I don't know for sure what AMFA can do, but I am willing to give them a chance. TWU is determined to destroy my way of life and will not rest until all members make the same pay no matter what the job. They will happily take money from AMTs and hand it to stock clerks and fleet service clerks. Why did we take a much bigger pay and benefit cut in 2003? Was it because we got a raise in 2001 since the bar for AMT pay in the rest of the industry went much higher than what we were getting at AA? Are we still being punished for it today? I truly think so. So for me it all comes down to this. I am the lowest paid AMT and have the least amount of benefits in the entire airline industry and my union is coming up with new ways to go even lower. In 2003 we said we would take pay cuts but leave our benefits alone and the TWU didn't listen because dues income would have gone down. They took care of the international and sold us out. I simply can't afford to keep them around.

Thanks Tom that's a great attitude to have, I respect that & I also respect that you are not afraid to stand up for what you care about regardless of the risks like standing in front of the base with a vote No sign realizing that some angry worker could throw a bottle out the window & possibly kill you, that takes guts .... your not just doing a lot of talking from behind a keyboard your a Man of action & that's quite rare, I'm assuming your out hustling AMFA cards everyday as well since you very much like AMFA, I too try to be a Man of action when it comes to things I care about, as the saying goes talk is cheap but Action says it all !
 
well turns out Bob was correct again AA does plan on making Billions a year.......



http://www.thestreet.mobi/story/11622365/1/american-cfo-just-wait-until-our-cost-savings-kick-in.html


American CFO: Just Wait Until Our Cost Savings Kick In

By Ted Reed - 07/18/12 - 10:08 AM EDT

Tickers in this article: LCC


DALLAS (TheStreet) -- Bankrupt American Airlines(AAMRQ.PK)posted improved second-quarter results Wednesday, and Chief Financial Officer Bella Goren said even bigger gains are coming.

The results, which included American's best quarterly revenue ever and a $95 million profit, excluding items, "reflect only a fraction of our restructuring process," Goren said, in an interview. "We will achieve, progressively, more and more savings, as we implement changes. The second-quarter impact (of cost savings) was very small."

American's $95 million gain represented a $381 million improvement over the same period a year earlier. Including reorganization costs and special items, the parent of American Airlines lost $241 million, compared with a net loss of $286 million a year earlier. Revenue rose 5.5% to $6.5 billion.

Among the principal drivers of second-quarter gains, Goren said, were improved demand for premium seats, increasing corporate sales and the increasing effectiveness of immunized joint ventures with international partners. Also, yields on ticket sales increased. But these gains were all on the revenue side. A principal intent of bankruptcy is to enable cost reductions, and these have barely shown up in American's results.

Goren cited five ratified contract agreements with the Transport Workers Union, changes in agent staffing levels, management downsizing and renegotiated agreements with suppliers and aircraft lessors as cost-saving measures that have occurred, but have so far not yet shown up, or have shown up only minimally, in American's financial results. "We will achieve progressively more and more," she said. "The target is $2 billion annually."

For American, the second quarter of 2011 was atroubling one. American was denying continuing speculation that it would seek bankruptcy protection, but it was the only major airline to report a loss in what is normally a profitable quarter for the industry. The loss of $286 million, or 85 cents a share, exceeded the consensus estimate of 75 cents, as fuel expenses rose 31% and added $524 million in spending.

Also, the impact of the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami in Japan was greater for American than for competitors because American generally had a higher percentage of sales in Japan, due to its partnership with Japan Air Lines.

The picture was very different in the second quarter of 2012, even though Goren said fuel costs were again higher and added $81 million to what the company would have paid at last year's prices. In the Pacific, passenger revenue per available seat mile increased 18.1% while overall PRASM gained 9.1% and international PRASM gained 9%.

Again, Goren noted, it's just a start. "This type of strong performance and operating performance is unusual for a company in restructuring," she said. "It demonstrates our momentum."

Goren declined to comment on the effort by US Airways (LCC) to merge with American, something American has opposed, at least while it is in bankruptcy.

This afternoon, US Airways CEO Doug Parker will lay out the case for the merger in an appearance at the National Press Club in Washington, D.C.

-- Written by Ted Reed in Charlotte, N.C.

>To contact the writer of this article, click here:Ted Reed
 

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