PARKER HAS THIS AIRLINE HEADED FOR 3rd BANKRUPTCY

[aquagreen73s]

You might wanna take a look at what Merrill Lynch had to say specifically about LCC with regards to the slowdown. If anything US Airways is the one who should be a tad bit nervous right now, not DAL, NWA or UAL.

"Could be signs of further fundamental weakness; too much uncertainty in the stock
Although we were generally pleased with US Airways Mar Q results despite a backdrop of decelerating revenue trends, the share sale, in our view, may suggest, further deterioration of fundamentals. As US Airways is predominantly a domestic carrier (only about 17% of its system is int'l), they are not benefiting as much as some of their larger brethren (American, Continental and United) from the strength in overseas markets. Given the potential risks, we find it hard to justify a Buy rating at this juncture. Hence, the Neutral rating."

Perhaps Doogie knew of the forthcoming downturn and knew that having such a miniscule international footprint would bite him in the a$$. Hence, his overnight osession with DAL. At any rate, here's the entire article if you'd like to read it...

http://rsch1.ml.com/9093/24013/ds/59047246.PDF

DAL is a screaming put...every bit as much as TOL and CFC. It didn't even finish it's firt day near the chief hypter's low target of 22, let alone get anywhere near 30. True, it's just one day of trading but this was a special (and important) day for DAL. All they accomplished was shaving off half a billion in market cap. Couple more days like this and it'll be interesting to see what the former unsercured creditors start doing - they have received nothing but a stock certificate as of yet.

 

[delta777]

DAL is a screaming put...every bit as much as TOL and CFC. It didn't even finish it's firt day near the chief hypter's low target of 22, let alone get anywhere near 30. True, it's just one day of trading but this was a special (and important) day for DAL. All they accomplished was shaving off half a billion in market cap. Couple more days like this and it'll be interesting to see what the former unsercured creditors start doing - they have received nothing but a stock certificate as of yet.

Here's what the former unsecured creditors will do, nothing. Hence the reason they're former. What do ya think LCC's market cap is right about now, considering your stock has lost about half its value since the failed hostile takeover? The great thing about DAL, however, is that we're not solely beholden to the shareholders. Our customers and employees actually matter, imagine that!!!

And Merrill Lynch didn't personally call out DAL or NWA or UAL, they only pointed out how vulnerable LCC was with its tiny International presence, relying too much on lower-yield domestic routes. Last time i checked DAL had about $4 billion in cash on hand, versus about $3.2 billion for LCC. Better yet, just take a 3-month look at your stock for kicks and giggles, http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/in...=1&time=3mo

How do ya like them apples?

 

[Career Reserve]

The only thing about UAL and NWA is their Asia flying. That could keep them propped up for a while, especially with the dollar tanking. Barring some sort of terrorism scare which causes Asians to book away from US carriers, one would think that both airlines will benefit from their gold mine Asia routes. DAL...gosh, I really don't know what to say other than it's definitely worthwhile to buy some puts.

Why puts on DAL? :huh:
It just came out of bankrupcy today.
Clean slate.

And Delta 777 you are right about employees & customers do matter at DAL, unlike LCC.
That definitely counts!

 

[Career Reserve]

DAL is a screaming put...every bit as much as TOL and CFC. It didn't even finish it's firt day near the chief hypter's low target of 22, let alone get anywhere near 30. True, it's just one day of trading but this was a special (and important) day for DAL. All they accomplished was shaving off half a billion in market cap. Couple more days like this and it'll be interesting to see what the former unsercured creditors start doing - they have received nothing but a stock certificate as of yet.

You are comparing home loans to DAL? Hello?!?
Lenient underwriting standards is part of their demise.
DAL is brand spankin new, no debt, clean slate. That's a far cry from poor underwriting.

 

[aquagreen73s]

Here's what the former unsecured creditors will do, nothing. Hence the reason they're former. What do ya think LCC's market cap is right about now, considering your stock has lost about half its value since the failed hostile takeover? The great thing about DAL, however, is that we're not solely beholden to the shareholders. Our customers and employees actually matter, imagine that!!!

How do ya like them apples?

Nevertheless, LCC is nearly double from where it started. And even back then it opened higher than what Parker and Lakefield had predicted. Today was the exact opposite for DAL: it missed even the low end of Grinstein's happy talk range at the open and then closed near the low of the day. Not very impressive for a first day which was long on optimism. I also thought is was sort of cute how Grinstein took it upon himself to buy a thousand shares. He should at least try to pump the stock, after all he's got his multiple millions secure from the reorganization. What's a thousand bucks compared to that?

 

[legacy-to-LCC]

Nevertheless, LCC is nearly double from where it started. And even back then it opened higher than what Parker and Lakefield had predicted. Today was the exact opposite for DAL: it missed even the low end of Grinstein's happy talk range at the open and then closed near the low of the day. Not very impressive for a first day which was long on optimism. I also thought is was sort of cute how Grinstein took it upon himself to buy a thousand shares. He should at least try to pump the stock, after all he's got his multiple millions secure from the reorganization. What's a thousand bucks compared to that?

that kool-aide must REALLY be strong?!?!?!? did DoUgIe mix it?? let me guess, half and half??
you westie apologists are pathetic!! let's deflect every level of reality...
how sad!!!

 

[Hello Newman]

When considering the "Conventional Wisdom" from Wall Street remember what the first four letters of the word "Analyst" spell

It's all just speculation folks only difference is they get paid to speculate.

SAME ONES THAT SAID PEOPLES EXPRESS WOULD BE A LONG TERM SURVIVOR.

 

[Phoenix]

Some notable quotes from the article:

"many of the factors that made the industry attractive a couple of years ago - and produced hearty profits at US Airways and other airlines last year - have evaporated in the past few months."
"A slowing economy has hurt ticket demand. Labor costs, which were slashed in airlines' bankruptcy cases, are poised to rise again.

Talk of other mergers, which reduce the supply of seats, has slowed to a murmur.

Oil prices were high then but are even higher now, and there's no "safety valve," like higher ticket prices, to offset them, Shapiro said."
It appears PAR is selling based on macroeconomic factors, not, as you were hoping, because of anything to do with USAir specifically.

He probably sees the bigger picture and has connected the dots: a tanking dollar, skyrocketing commodity prices, light sweet crude production decreasing, nationwide housing stress, auto sales tanking, fiscal deficits getting bigger...generally the kind of stuff which spells economic hardship for a service based economy. Airlines don't do well in that kind of environment - even the best ones suffer. Shrewd move to get out completely.

And knowledge that the list was coming out a month early?

With 7 Million shares I would now what Nicko ate for breakfast every day. But of couse I would have plausible denial.

 

[Be Careful What You Wish For.]

The high class pissing match begins. "I went to a better MBA school than you did. No, mine is better" etc. The posters here who jumped all over DAL prematurely are having to pay the price now-however, LCC has been downgraded to "neutral". In a challenging environment that may not be all that bad. As an example of how screwed up things can get and still out perform estimates for the first quarter look at the mess from the past three months (and we still made money!)-lets not throw the baby out w/ the bath water. Good luck to DAL and everyone else. It would be nice to root for our compatriots (as we should) but as we all know we'd rather that they all just disappear instead. Such is the law of the jungle as well as good business. The knee jerk reaction would be to throw your hands up and scream "why did I buy airline stock-again?". We may be down so low that we may just be positioned right for this next cycle.
http://www.sltrib.com/business/ci_5814518

 

[Be Careful What You Wish For.]

"Even so, one analyst at Prudential Equity Group, Bob McAdoo, said in a research note Thursday that Delta's stock is overvalued and trading at levels, in comparison to its peers, that are unsustainable. His firm initiated an underweight rating on Delta's new stock and a $14 price target.

"We will review our rating once Delta's valuation is more consistent with the other legacy carriers," McAdoo wrote."

 

[PHX-F/A]

Can't go bankrupt if you're making money. I guess high school was not a priority for you? 😛

O U C H ! !

 

[luvthe9]

http://www.pr-inside.com/us-airways-pilots...ity-r117976.htm

 

[Be Careful What You Wish For.]

Motley Fool Qoute

"Operating margin
UAL 2.4%
Delta 4%
JetBlue 5.1%
AMR 5.3%
US Airways5.6%
Southwest 8.3%
ExpressJet8.4%

So in a nutshell, what we have here is an airline with close to the worst operating profitability of any of its major rivals. And yet, it's being valued at a price-to-sales ratio that suggests it's top of the heap -- when it just isn't so." Motley Fool