Man the lifeboats...............

[Bob Owens]

Frankly Bob, this is the problem. These 2 things should never be related. The contract should be negotiated at the bargaining table, not on the floor and certainly never on the aircraft. You may not like the process, or even have any faith in it, but there is a process to the negotiation. Whether true or not, just making these sorts of statements gives the perception of the "lazy, out for himself, knuckle dragging union mekanik" What you soemtimes choose not to realize is the traveling public, our customers, are just not interested in what the mechanics, or anyone else for that matter, make. Our jobs are to perform to the best of abilities at all times, regardless of hte contract, our mood that day, or anythiung else going on. To do anything less is plan unprofessional. To publicly state that an aircraft would intentionally be placed out of service, not becaue it couldn't be repaired in time for it's next flight, but because someone felt they needed some extra overtime either insults everyone, or if true is something that you should be ahamed of, not braggiung about.

Sorry but you are wrong, if there are no consequences to not bargaining then there is no incentive to bargain, thats why negotiations take so long in this industry. People who say pay and performance should not be related are BS artists, do you expect the same perfomance out of a Yugo as you would a Ferarri? Why not? Pay and performance should never be related according to you, well here is a real world fact-they are almost always related. If the government helped and fixed the price of cars so they were all the same price would you pick the cheapest car or the best car? My guess is it would be the best car, would you pay more because you felt is was the "right thing to do"? If you did then you obviously arent a businessman. If we play by your rules there's nothing to stop the carriers from sitting back, like they have, and simply allowing inflation to lower real wages. (We've taken an additional 12% paycut since negotiations started and on top of that seen our medical go up by around 40%, my medical has gone up over 500% since 2003). In addition to government interference we have the burden of a high penalty attached to portability, moving around has negative consequences, the carriers know that and exploit it but the government blocks us from exploiting the advantages we do have. The tables are the alternate peaceful way to bargain, if nothing happens there then it goes back to the floor.

We've acted professionally through the last eight years of degredation, its time for the company to treat us that way. You dont like the way things are done, tell your Congressman to get rid of the RLA and allow workers at carriers the same rights as workers in the rest of the country, and most of the world. Allow us to strike when the term of our contract is up. Allow us the ability to have true collective bargaining instead of collective begging. Sure you may face strikes but at least you would have some advanced notice and you could try and make other arrangements.

So as they announce the largest aircraft order in history and we see our compensation headed to the bottom, there are only two major carriers that are below is in pay, they both went bankrupt and both are in mediation, you say we should continue to perform to the best of our ability while they pay us to the least of their ability. Sorry but your version of professionalism isnt professionalism, its masochism.

I agree that the public could care less what we make, and the company could care less how much we suffer, until it affects their operation.

We can not alter the quality of the work we perform, but we can alter the effort put into getting it done quickly. So I ask you, if the company will not bargain(we arent asking for number one, we are asking for less than SWA is getting and as I said AA competitors are also in negotiaions) how do you feel mechanics should put pressure on the company if not through performance on the floor?

 

[FWAAA]

Might be time to buy some at near $5...It seems AA will come out smelling like a rose buy summers end, maybe by winter for having signed 3 union contracts....In the eyes of Wall St...it might seem that labor peace will finally fall upon AMR....The way the investors could see is that an agreement means employees are happy and AA's costs are lowered..

Sadly not the case as far has happy employees are concerned.

Only if you're willing to suffer massive additional concessions.

The time to buy AMR at $5/sh is not now, it was on May 1, 2003, when the last round of massive concessions was imposed. Right now, most investors see a Ch 11 filing on the horizon and without concessions (or oil dropping to $20/bbl), the stock will not recover like it did when it hit $41/sh in January, 2007.

 

[WorldTraveler]

There are reports that the aircraft purchase agreements have special provisions for the manufacturers and finance companies in the event of a BK...
if that is the case, the likelihood that AA will file in order to "adjust" its labor contracts grows larger and larger.
.
IF AA can fly newer planes, pay the same per gallon for fuel but use less of it, obtain the financing to run the business, and not dump debt in BK - since AMR has very little unsecured debt they likely couldn't anyway - then BK becomes almost exclusvely a process to reduce labor costs - and perhaps some supplier and facility costs.
.
It also eliminates the possibility of AMR being the target of a hostile takeover in BK.
.
With the stock price so low, the value to the stockholders that is lost becomes very small in comparison to the benefits the company could obtain with revised labor contracts.

 

[Frank Szabo]

There are reports that the aircraft purchase agreements have special provisions for the manufacturers and finance companies in the event of a BK...

That's the report.


Considering all that's happened, I've no doubt AMR's "management" will do its absolute best to hose its employees while extracting what they can for themselves from the process. At least with the expired contract we'll have a higher starting point than if we had taken the other offer.

if that is the case, the likelihood that AA will file in order to "adjust" its labor contracts grows larger and larger.
With the stock price so low, the value to the stockholders that is lost becomes very small in comparison to the benefits the company could obtain with revised labor contracts.

Just watch the stock price - when it starts dropping, that the direction things are heading.

 

[Frank Szabo]

Why does it matter why he is here? I imagine like me, he travels a lot for business and enjoys commercial aviation. Many finance and investment professionals like myself often enjoy researching, discussing, and evaluating different of view and sources of information. Unlike others on this board generally we're willing to engage with people who we may not agree with but can entertain their view points.

Please be respectful to the other posters. I remember I didn't receive the most warm welcome when I came last year but have enjoyed contributing to the discussion.


Josh

You may have enjoyed spouting management tripe but we really aren't interested in your viewpoint. If it's research you're after, go to the library. Try asking a few working people why they don't see things your way and tell them how wrong they are for wanting fairness frm their employers - give me notice as I'd like to watch.

Between the American and French Revolution a few years later, your type learned to allow the common man to have just enough that he would be worried about losing it in order to stifle any further revolt of the peasants and peons - now, you business boys are getting greedy again.

 

[737823]

You may have enjoyed spouting management tripe but we really aren't interested in your viewpoint. If it's research you're after, go to the library. Try asking a few working people why they don't see things your way and tell them how wrong they are for wanting fairness frm their employers - give me notice as I'd like to watch.

I'm not on this board for business purposes. Rather I enjoy flying and hearing other perspectives. A library wouldn't be the best place to research current airline industry trends and topics so I follow this site, other blogs, news articles, among others. I don't care if you're uninterested. I'm here and intend to stay and comply with the TOS.

Josh

 

[MCI transplant]

Only if you're willing to suffer massive additional concessions.

The time to buy AMR at $5/sh is not now, it was on May 1, 2003, when the last round of massive concessions was imposed. Right now, most investors see a Ch 11 filing on the horizon and without concessions (or oil dropping to $20/bbl), the stock will not recover like it did when it hit $41/sh in January, 2007.

<_< ----- Right FW!!!------ AA needs those concessions to pay for all those new airplanes they bought!! ------- Or! How about this one? They're going to buy all those new planes, sell them to a 3rd. party, lease them back, and use that money to give everyone a big fat raise!!!! 😛 ------- Right!!!

 

[Jacobin777]

Not quite that simple. Maybe you should have gone beyond Econ 101. The RLA, delays our ability to capitalize on market forces while the BK courts allow the airlines to do so. It has had a ratchetting downward effect on our wages. Its a contest between collective labor and collective Capital where the governent has clearly chosen to support collective Capital. If we were under the NLRA we would have restored our wages or had multiple strikes. The NLRA would add volitility to the labor markets. In our situation where large groups of workers are needed its normally more advantageous for workers to bargain collectively against a large corporation than as individuals because if you employ large numbers of people doing the same thing you can easily afford to lose a few at a time. By bargainlg collectively, making youself part of a much larger group, that the company would find much more difficult to replace, you increase your leverage. If people with excess Capital can form collectives in an attempt to create more wealth for themselves off their excess wealth then workers should be affirded the same options with their labor, which is perishable.



Well maybe they arent that useful for people like you but they are needed by us. Its no co-incidenece that as Unions have declined wealth inequality has become more extreme. The majority of people in this country are seeing declining real wages, another effect of the decline of unions. Without going into the cause of the decline the fact is the decline of unions has more in common with the decline of native Americans than changes in technology.

The are no longer useful for the majority of the people of the United States. For those who are they are supposedly useful to, it has been nothing but a financial trap for the company. The disparity of "middle-class" people is rather irrelevant.

Using Wikipedia's sources. The "middle class" still consist >65%-70% of the population.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_middle_class

Has the disparity increased? Certainly, but not the way people make it out to be. Regardless, the United States provides more then enough opportunity to progress at any age level.

There are functions of society which are too important to prevent mass strikes. No matter how much a group of physicians hate their situation, or be whatever it may be, they can't go on strike.

Bondholders and shareholders are owners of the company and debt. They come first when it comes time to expected to be paid.

I will agree however that a happy work force makes for better production. That being said, there is only so much a company can do when its costs aren't inline with its peers. This is the bottom line.

Southwest was created basically post-deregulation. It doesn't have many of the pre-regulation costs which AA, DL, UA, CO, NW had...and all of these, sans AA solved this problem via BK.

I've mentioned here and on other boards, I dont' have the kindest of all words for this particular management either (and of many companies). AA's management has been "asleep at the wheel" for a while (but dealing with its increased cost structure wasn't one of the marjor situations where AA's management was "asleep at the wheel". The way board structures are setup currently, its too easy to have a "buddy-buddy" system between board members and management.

Regardless, even the new AA Pilots Union head has said "some of the negotiations with the previous union president wasn't practical and we need to accept the realities of today"...gee, so he mentions something which many of us have been stating for years!?1?

As yes, developing drugs is real Macho stuff, did you develop Viagra or something?

Do you actually believe some of the unintellectual pabulum you come up with? 🙄

Arrogance is seldom recognized by the afflicted.

This is the best you can do?

Unlike which countries? Alll other countries or just some countries? I've been to other countries, even Communist Countries and from what I've seen they all have choices, the amount of opportunity may vary but then again oppportunity is a combinaion of luck, determination and chutzpa. People in China have gone from rags to riches as well. In our industry those traits are frowned upon, do you want to fly on a plane worked on or flown by people who are risk takers?

Obviously many countries don't allow their citizens/residents to prosper. Yes, many Communist countries, including China have people who go rags to riches-but the environment for this to happen is still the greatest here in the United States. Maybe that has started to change, and maybe the United States isn't "on top", but it is still ranks up there.

I'm not on this board for business purposes. Rather I enjoy flying and hearing other perspectives. A library wouldn't be the best place to research current airline industry trends and topics so I follow this site, other blogs, news articles, among others. I don't care if you're uninterested. I'm here and intend to stay and comply with the TOS.

Josh

Josh, some people here just can't seem to understand this simple concept. <_<

 

[AANOTOK]

A new low (4.63) and headed lower. Oops, (4.62) before I was done typing.

Jacob-Josh, any thoughts? B)

 

[Jacobin777]

A new low (4.63) and headed lower. Oops, (4.62) before I was done typing.

Jacob-Josh, any thoughts? B)

I don't really deal too much with the stock markets (my work involves currency and commodities mostly). That being said, I'll take an attempt at it.

1)Its quite obvious AA's costs are just too much compared to its peers. It seriously needs to reduce its cost structure. There are NUMEROUS analyst comments about this. Just a couple of links:

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/10_42/b4199019823300.htm

Studies show the airline is at or near the bottom of the industry in productivity

http://www.aanegotiations.com/pilotblock.asp

2)With the price of oil hovering the $100 mark, this eats into hundreds of millions of $$$ of AA's earnings. It doesn't seem AA was properly hedged.

3)Other large air carriers such as LCC, UA, and DL are all seeing their stocks cut in 1/2 or more the past 12-18 months. Now there are air carriers such AS which has done a phenomenal job running their business. From pay to other misc. costs. Looking at WN, B6, AS compared to the legacies, it seems they in general are performing better. Fuel costs is just killing the large carriers.

UA today reported excellent results yet its fuel cost was up big time and the stock today is barely up (might even close down for the day as its well of its high).

4)From a technical point of view, AA's "recent" low was back on 03/06/2009 of $2.55 so it wouldn't surprise me to see AA get somewhere close to that. If AA gets below that price, and if AA's shares falls below $2, the most obvious "street" view is that AA is probably going to head into BK.

5)Most indicators of AA's stock is also pointing down. While there is a good chance of the stock going "too far too fast" and might stabilize in this region, its not something I would be look to buy.
The problem with this stock is that its so cheap, it almost doesnt' make sense to purchase put options. That being said, if AA does go into BK, its stock will be worthless so if I own stock at these levels I probably would wind up buying puts to have some protection. Actually, I wouldn't have been in this position in the first place as I would have purchased some protective puts at the time of purchasing AMR stock. Of course, everyone's situation, risk and tolerance is different and unique and course of corresponding action taken would be different.

Cheers.

 

[Bob Owens]

There are functions of society which are too important to prevent mass strikes. No matter how much a group of physicians hate their situation, or be whatever it may be, they can't go on strike.

Bondholders and shareholders are owners of the company and debt. They come first when it comes time to expected to be paid.

You have just described a fascist state. The rights of Capital supercede the rights of Labor. Its funny how you say Doctors should not be allowed to strike but nothing stops the Bondholders and Shareholders from closing down the Hospital if they dont feel they are making enough money. Bit of a double standard there , no?

I will agree however that a happy work force makes for better production. That being said, there is only so much a company can do when its costs aren't inline with its peers. This is the bottom line.

Southwest was created basically post-deregulation. It doesn't have many of the pre-regulation costs which AA, DL, UA, CO, NW had...and all of these, sans AA solved this problem via BK.

It also doesnt generate the yield that AA and other carriers do.

Regardless, even the new AA Pilots Union head has said "some of the negotiations with the previous union president wasn't practical and we need to accept the realities of today"...gee, so he mentions something which many of us have been stating for years!?1?

Our pilots ranking in the industry is not the same as ours. The only mechanics below us are both in mediation.

This is the best you can do?

Its all that is needed.

Obviously many countries don't allow their citizens/residents to prosper. Yes, many Communist countries, including China have people who go rags to riches-but the environment for this to happen is still the greatest here in the United States. Maybe that has started to change, and maybe the United States isn't "on top", but it is still ranks up there.

Ok name a few. Show me a country that has no rich people. As you admitted even Communist China has people who have gone from rags to riches, and thats OK by me. Its good to see people succeed, but just dont be a pig, leave enough for the rest of us. Dont skew the rules so badly that only the few can benefit because if you do then eventually the majority will refuse to play. Anne Rand was a bitter ugly hypocritical Sociopath.

Your position that people who make money off their money should come first says it all. Despite your plug you are not patriotic because you know as well as I that most bonds and stocks can be sold to anybody who has the money, even to foreignors and other corporations that have no Nationalty. So you favor putting the interest of foreignors above people working in America paying taxes in this country. The same pool of people who defend our Nation as soldiers. You defend a system that contributes to wealth inequality, which in turn leads to many other negative societal problems. Kevin Phillips did a good jobwriting about how Nations rise then fall, you should take a look and learn instead of using time out of your 14 hour day here. Hey its just 1pm. Are you on a long lunch, or in the middle of your morning? Shouldnt you be making money instead of chatting on this site? What would your father think??

You never answerd my question, "Do you want to fly on a plane worked on or flown by people who are risk takers"?. "Ah, it should be ok"

 

[Frank Szabo]

Silver spoon? You really go out on a limb at times, Bob.

If he was so privileged, why did he get his degree from the Univ. of Texas, and not some place like Harvard or Yale?.... Why did he even have to work summers if he came from money?...

Please. Stick to Bobonomics. You sound so much more credible making up statistics than you do trying to slander the CEO.

Bob's correct - Arpey had an in - all I'll disagree with is the location of the spoon when he was born.

 

[strikeforce]

If a drug company gets an FDA-approved drug based on bad/compromised data I provide and later proves to be a disaster, well, I have to live with it. There is something about intellectual honesty and integrity - irregardless of pay. Last I recall, I wasn't union either.




Why would you present bad or compromised data if YOU are doing the research?????? It wouldn't be for personal financial gains or gains for your pharma company, would it?????

Show me intellectual honesty and integrity in the phama industry???? ever watch some of the pharma commercials.....ever notice the number of side-effects as compared to helping the patient???? I can't stop laughing at some of them!!!

Are you insinuating that AMT's aren't intelligent or honest???? Remember your comments the next time you fly and the pilot has to pull over on the shoulder.......oh that's right there is NO shoulder! Sorry!

 

[Frank Szabo]

... snip


Are you insinuating that AMT's aren't intelligent or honest???? Remember your comments the next time you fly and the pilot has to pull over on the shoulder.......oh that's right there is NO shoulder! Sorry!

[sarcasm]

You certainly don't believe anyone who might soil their pinkies working on a damned old machine has enough sense to pour piss from a boot, do you? Even with directions on the toes and faucets on the heels?

We, as a group, couldn't possibly be even halfway intelligent and most certainly not honest as our educational levels are rather low as compared to the elite who are inherently honest in their dealings with others. You know very well we aren't anything short of knuckle dragging mouth breathers who barely hold enough intelligence, as a group, to rub two brain cells together.

The only people in the world that matter in any sense are those who have been to college to lose all of what common sense they were born with in order to find a job, the major factor of keeping said job being based in negative pressure - you should know that by now, strikeforce. The better than thous do not need us for anything - well, maybe for a few things but that doesn't matter. We are still the lowest of lowlife that would dare to tell an employer we want better.

We are totally wrong in expecting to be paid fairly for our labor. Nobody, without at least a master's degree in poofling should be making over $40k per year, reserving all the higher pay rates for those who bring their bosses coffee in the morning, that being the extent of "labor" that has any value at all, not to mention finding a butt-buddy to help tag-team the infidels who might think they have any value to the elite.

A slack-jawed cretin such as yourself should be thankful to even have a job, if you don't like it leave, yada yada, etc. and et al.

Dumbass.

[/sarcasm]

FYI - 21JUL2011 - AMR @ $4.63 and falling.
-.29, Volume of 20,311,000 and change.

 

[eolesen]

FYI - 21JUL2011 - AMR @ $4.63 and falling.
-.29, Volume of 20,311,000 and change.

Look at the attached, Frank. Maybe a little worse for the wear than others, but it's still tracking pretty close to where the other guys are. On a percentage basis, you could argue that AMR looks worse because it's at a lower value in comparison to the guys who wiped out all their existing equity...