A quick word about IAM141 update
The update speaks about a strike and/or a lockout. So I want to address the legal application of the RLA for both.
An airline can NOT lock out its employees, legally, if the union does not strike. This is different than the NLRA and other labor laws,and a strong advantage of the RLA. The idea of the RLA was not to interrupt interstate commerce so the freedoms on staying on the job are more encouraging. During negotiations, it sucks because negotiations take like forever nowadays with greedy management, but after a release, the RLA is a huge advantage. In other industries, at 12 midnight when a contract expires, a company can lock out its employees, much like the most visible lockouts in sports. Not so under the RLA.
In application, at 12 midnight after a cooling off period, a union has the right to strike. IF the union strikes, then the airline can replace or even lock out the employees. BUT the RLA doesn't force a union to strike, it has the option of staying on the job and calling a strike or wildcat at its own discretion after the cooling off at a later date. That's a real pain in the butt for airlines.
Of course, if the union decides not to strike, the airline is free to impose its own contract. However, the problem for the airline is that these airlines are highly leveraged with credit and both the stockholders and Mr Banker are not comfortable with the idea of having a group of employees coming to work and walking off the job at any given time or at any given airport.
If by some miracle, the NMB gives a release, then imo the best strategy for any union would be to stay on the job and have the union leadership decide, at its own time, when or if to strike....NOT at midnight on the 30th day when the company would be most prepared.
Also, I would think if a miracle did happen and the NMB granted a release anytime soon, then it would do so for only one group, most likely the mechanics. Don't get me wrong, the NMB will grant a release in time but I don't personally think that time is within 2013. regards,