Analyst Jamie Baker says AA won't cut labor costs as much as Horton would like

[BoeingBoy]

The sad thing is we all entered older age before we have to switch.

I won't say "all" of you, but those caught in the transition without enough time to make up for the retirement losses of a frozen/terminated DB plan are the one's that suffer the most. While there is no magic age range defining those so trapped, every group will have their share.

Jim

 

[Buck]

I won't say "all" of you, but those caught in the transition without enough time to make up for the retirement losses of a frozen/terminated DB plan are the one's that suffer the most. While there is no magic age range defining those so trapped, every group will have their share.

Jim

I for one am taking ahold of what I can. The only thing I can do at 52, is to increase my 401k contributions, stop borrowing from it and warn my children of the peril that could face them. I use to say I will invest as if Social Security was not there. Now I wonder how much I am going to get.

 

[TWU informer]

I for one am taking ahold of what I can. The only thing I can do at 52, is to increase my 401k contributions, stop borrowing from it and warn my children of the peril that could face them. I use to say I will invest as if Social Security was not there. Now I wonder how much I am going to get.

The Vote NO advocates are trying to claim AA was going to file Chapter 11 regardless of T/A voting or outcome.

The way I see it regardless of their claims, is that AA was giving us the potential to keep our defined pensions, via the attrition change to the new hire pension plan going to a 401K match. Yes there were other concessions, but would they have directly effected you or me? Who knows. Doesn't take a rocket scientist to see the "other" concessions are going to be much larger now!

Basically, they shafted us out of a chance at keeping our defined pension plan. All the while AA was assuring us number 2 in the industry in payscale. And advancing the date of job security. So the know-it-alls made videos and banged their drums real loud. And now they try to justify that ignorance with unsubstantiated claims of we were going to get screwed either way. Not sure about that, but I am very sure we are screwed now.

I am 51 years of age and no doubt in the window of maximum shafting and I don't mind saying those that advocated voting NO are no leaders I want follow anymore.

Can you tell I am pissed? Can you tell at whom I am pissed at?

Yet the stupid TWU appoints one of them to the damn committee to further decide our direction. The only saving grace about that is this commmittee has no damn power!

Stupid fools should be brought up on criminal charges for how bad the membership is going to suffer now.

Instead, most members are afraid to speak how they really feel about what these know-it-alls have done. NOT ME

 

[Buck]

The Vote NO advocates are trying to claim AA was going to file Chapter 11 regardless of T/A voting or outcome.

The way I see it regardless of their claims, is that AA was giving us the potential to keep our pensions and via the attrition change the new hire pension plan. Yes there were other concessions, but would they have directly effected you or me? Who knows.

Basically, they shafted us out of a chance at keeping our defined pension plan. All the while assuring us number 2 in the industry in payscale. And advancing the date of job security. So they mad videos and banged their drums real loud. And now they try to justify that ignorance with unsubstantiated claims of we were going to get screwed either way. Not sure about that, but I am very sure we are screwed now.

I am 51 years of age and no doubt in the window of maximum shafting and I don't mind saying those that advocated voting NO are no leaders I want follow anymore.

Can you tell I am pissed? Can you tell at whom I am pissed at?

Yet the stupid TWU appoints one of them to the damn committee to further decide our direction. The only saving grace about that is this commmittee has no damn power!

Stupid fools should be brought upon criminal charges for how bad the membership is going to suffer now. Instead, most are even afraid to speak how they really feel about what they have done. NOT ME

The vote NO advocates were still playing the old style unions of the 30's and 40's. By god you can't do that we will unite and shut you down. Well that does not play so well anymore.

The pension issue is just like the B-Scale, except this time the members were played. The 49 to 50 split on a Defined Benefit vs a 401k match. I have to wonder what the membership would have done in 1983 had the exact issues were being played out. What is wrong with scewing the ghost employee ( those yet to hire ) as long as I got mine. This is similar to the line OH argument. Divide and conquer. As for job security, if you apply the theory of I got mine then screw it does not matter and with bankruptcy I do not believe it will have much bearing for those that are junior anyway. As for #2 in pay that is a good point. We could have been #2 from the top, instead we are #2 from the bottom and racing in that direction.

If the creditors committee had power, you are correct, a maximum shafting we would take.
How does the TWU become a unsecured creditor? To use a legal term that is being used in court, what is the "CURE" or the amount the debtor owes the union or it's members?

A duty of fair representation move, during with the current sitting president who appoints people and does so bypassing congress, to me would be a disaster. And the most important item, is how do we keep Jim Litlle's revenue stream flowing, while ensuring that ours is damage as litlle as possible.

 

[TWU informer]

The pension issue is just like the B-Scale, except this time the members were played. The 49 to 50 split on a Defined Benefit vs a 401k match. I have to wonder what the membership would have done in 1983 had the exact issues were being played out. What is wrong with scewing the ghost employee ( those yet to hire ) as long as I got mine. This is similar to the line OH argument. Divide and conquer. As for job security, if you apply the theory of I got mine then screw it does not matter and with bankruptcy I do not believe it will have much bearing for those that are junior anyway. As for #2 in pay that is a good point. We could have been #2 from the top, instead we are #2 from the bottom and racing in that direction.

:blink: I thought the 49-50 split was over prefunding retirement medical not defined pension vs 401K match

And in 1983 the same issue did play out.

And AA grew and you and I were hired, and told of employment terms which we accepted.

Maybe AA would have filed BK back then had they said NO like we did.

One could argue it is far better to take the shaft yourself than to shaft another. But it is not like there was an option that someone was not going to get shafted. But the NO VOTE advocation group sure acted like that was an option.

I feel comfortable that my shafting is not as bad as the Pilots are going to get.

 

[Buck]

:blink: I thought the 49-50 split was over prefunding retirement medical not defined pension vs 401K match

And in 1983 the same issue did play out.

And AA grew and you and I were hired, and told of employment terms which we accepted.

Maybe AA would have filed BK back then had they said NO like we did.

One could argue it is far better to take the shaft yourself than to shaft another. But it is not like there was an option that someone was not going to get shafted. But the NO VOTE advocation group sure acted like that was an option.

I feel comfortable that my shafting is not as bad as the Pilots are going to get.

You are correct it was the pre-funding. But you get what I am saying, division was accomplished then and we will watch it today, only there is no choice.

 

[eolesen]

Then you would only lost half of it 2008 thanks to the SCREW MARKET.

I've already recovered what I lost on paper, and then some. Most people have if you had a decent portfolio mix.

 

[Birdman]

Good grief, all this rancor and we don't even know what the compAAny wants. I know this, as a dues objector I will never be accused of destroying the lives of my coworkers because of an unpopular majority vote. O, that's right, it would also be my fault.

 

[Buck]

Good grief, all this rancor and we don't even know what the compAAny wants. I know this, as a dues objector I will never be accused of destroying the lives of my coworkers because of an unpopular majority vote. O, that's right, it would also be my fault.

Are you stationed in TUL?

 

[Mr Red]

Are you stationed in TUL?

We are almost at chop shop wages ,TULE is is not going anywhere !!and if it did AMR needs to just fold up amd go chapter 7.

 

[Wretched Wrench]

Uh, the company doesn't normally control the 401k investment options... At AMR, the 401K is managed by JP Morgan, who does investments as a primary line of business. Those employees taking risk saw reward. Or loss.

Yeah, now. I was talking about the way it was run before JP Morgan ran it. Can't remember who, but it was pathetic. We didn't even have a S&P 500 option.

And to be fair, JP Morgan offered pretty much all the same types of risk funds as what I have at my current employer with MetLife. Or at least they did up until the point that I did a rollover.

Yeah, not too bad. Now. But it came way too late for us to participate in the real bull market before.

 

[Bob Owens]

As for #2 in pay that is a good point. We could have been #2 from the top, instead we are #2 from the bottom and racing in that direction.

Is it?

Who would have been number two? The 11500 mechanics that remain at AA or just the 2500 or less who work nights on the line? (At best our top paid would be Number 5, and they would be behind UPS, Fed Ex, Jet Blue, UAL and possibly Delta as their mechanics have been told a raise is coming)

Would our OSMs be better off than those in the chop shops as far as hourly wages? Current starting pay for OSMs is less than $10.hr and even with the TA they still would be under $11/hr.

Lets compare AA to UA.

Right now our average cost per mechanic must be way, way lower than it is for UA and it will be for some time and it would have been under the TA. It probably still would have been lower under our proposal. I believe we have always, even back when I hired on, given AA lower costs than UAL because our starting wages were lower, our progressions were longer and we had less vacation and sick time. The only thing that we had was a higher multiplier for the pension but that was nullified by the loss of the first year of service. Yes UAL saw their DB and Retiree medical go away back in 2005 but they were not left with nothing, they got a defined contribution of between 4% and 6% of total earnings, (not just the base 2080 hours as AA proposed for our new hires) and it was a true contribution, not a match. So figure on average UAL has contributed around $22,000 per mechanic to the DB pension over the last six years compared to (going by the value statement on Jetnet $7200 at AA). They also got convertable notes and other things to try and soften the blow from the dump into the PBGC of their DB pension. Another factor to consider is that one of the reasons why they lost so much of what they were supposed to get is because their pension fell under the 5 year rule. Improvements that were put in within the last five years were excluded by the PBGC. Recently the courts ruled that the PBGC screwed up and the UAL workers should get more than what the PBGC had peviously said they would get as well.

At AA they have offered recall and upgrades to all and have been hiring off the street for years. When you can hire off the street that drives your average costs down because new hires start at lower wages, have less vacation and no sick time. It will be years before UAL can hire off the street, they still have many on layoff, so for the forseeable future, most vacancies they have will be offered to a worker at max pay instead of starting wages.

So AA currently has mechanics earning anywhere from 9.58/hr to around $33.25 giving them an unweighted average of $21.41/hr. Of course once you factor in the numbers the average climbs, the last figures I saw from the company had it at around $27/hr. The only workers that see $33.25 are those at the line working nights. The overwhelming majority of mechanics at AA make less than that, most, even just the A&Ps, at least $1.00 an hour less than that. UA on the other hand does not have OSMs or many of the other lower paid workers or any new hire mechanics making as little as around $20/hr, its long recall list will not allow them yo lower their average costs either, a benefit that AA has enjoyed for some time already so when UAs top wage is cited thats pretty much their average wage while ours never was even close.

When you factor in holidays vacation and sick time, we make even less than USAIR. We are at the the bottom.

 

[TWU informer]

Is it?

Who would have been number two? The 11500 mechanics that remain at AA or just the 2500 or less who work nights on the line? (At best our top paid would be Number 5, and they would be behind UPS, Fed Ex, Jet Blue, UAL and possibly Delta as their mechanics have been told a raise is coming)

Would our OSMs be better off than those in the chop shops as far as hourly wages? Current starting pay for OSMs is less than $10.hr and even with the TA they still would be under $11/hr.

Lets compare AA to UA.

Right now our average cost per mechanic must be way, way lower than it is for UA and it will be for some time and it would have been under the TA. It probably still would have been lower under our proposal. I believe we have always, even back when I hired on, given AA lower costs than UAL because our starting wages were lower, our progressions were longer and we had less vacation and sick time. The only thing that we had was a higher multiplier for the pension but that was nullified by the loss of the first year of service. Yes UAL saw their DB and Retiree medical go away back in 2005 but they were not left with nothing, they got a defined contribution of between 4% and 6% of total earnings, (not just the base 2080 hours as AA proposed for our new hires) and it was a true contribution, not a match. So figure on average UAL has contributed around $22,000 per mechanic to the DB pension over the last six years compared to (going by the value statement on Jetnet $7200 at AA). They also got convertable notes and other things to try and soften the blow from the dump into the PBGC of their DB pension. Another factor to consider is that one of the reasons why they lost so much of what they were supposed to get is because their pension fell under the 5 year rule. Improvements that were put in within the last five years were excluded by the PBGC. Recently the courts ruled that the PBGC screwed up and the UAL workers should get more than what the PBGC had peviously said they would get as well.

At AA they have offered recall and upgrades to all and have been hiring off the street for years. When you can hire off the street that drives your average costs down because new hires start at lower wages, have less vacation and no sick time. It will be years before UAL can hire off the street, they still have many on layoff, so for the forseeable future, most vacancies they have will be offered to a worker at max pay instead of starting wages.

So AA currently has mechanics earning anywhere from 9.58/hr to around $33.25 giving them an unweighted average of $21.41/hr. Of course once you factor in the numbers the average climbs, the last figures I saw from the company had it at around $27/hr. The only workers that see $33.25 are those at the line working nights. The overwhelming majority of mechanics at AA make less than that, most, even just the A&Ps, at least $1.00 an hour less than that. UA on the other hand does not have OSMs or many of the other lower paid workers or any new hire mechanics making as little as around $20/hr, its long recall list will not allow them yo lower their average costs either, a benefit that AA has enjoyed for some time already so when UAs top wage is cited thats pretty much their average wage while ours never was even close.

You make some valid points. However, there are ZERO mechanics currently making 9.58 per hour.
Even the AMT's just hired are just under $20 per hour. And by the way AA is not having a problem hiring as you like to claim either.

Have you or are you going to correct a damn one of those points with your strategy?

All I see is you leading us deeper into a hole!

At some point you need to stop living in your made up numbers that are designed to show worst case scenario which seldom exist and look and reality. Or at minimum start including the Defined Benefit Pension and retirement medical into your costing out employees. Because the fact is AA has to pay those cost for each employee and you always seem to ignore that fact.

 

[Bob Owens]

You make some valid points. However, there are ZERO mechanics currently making 9.58 per hour.
Even the AMT's just hired are just under $20 per hour. And by the way AA is not having a problem hiring as you like to claim either.

Have you or are you going to correct a damn one of those points with your strategy?

All I see is you leading us deeper into a hole!

At some point you need to stop living in your made up numbers that are designed to show worst case scenario which seldom exist and look and reality. Or at minimum start including the Defined Benefit Pension and retirement medical into your costing out employees. Because the fact is AA has to pay those cost for each employee and you always seem to ignore that fact.

Really? Last month they lost two of their new hires at JFK after sending them through all the gen fam and other training. I've heard of resignations in Tulsa as well. Perhaps they won't have trouble filling vacancies in the bases but is that where you expect the demand to be? My guess is the demand will be in the five cornerstone cities.

When the company provides a fair cost out for our pension over a long period of time(just the TWU portion) and retiree medical then I will include it. I expect that when they give us those figures that they subtract what came out of the Prefunding accounts and only what they paid into the plans not what the plans paid out. In 2009 they paid zero into the pension. The. Boyd report even added a note saying that although AAs benefits costs were the highest in 2010 thy were second from the bottom in 2009 because of the way AA chose to fund the pension. So AAs pretty good at making their numbers say whatever it is they want them to say. You may choose to accept whatever AA tells you without looking a little deeper but I don't. If you feel my numbers or assumption s are wrong then challenge them with a real argument instead of just calling them made up.

 

[TWU informer]

Really? Last month they lost two of their new hires at JFK after sending them through all the gen fam and other training.

When the company provides a fair cost out for our pension over a long period of time(just the TWU portion) and retiree medical then I will include it. I expect that when they give us those figures that they subtract what came out of the Prefunding accounts and only what they paid into the plans not what the plans paid out. In 2009 they paid zero into the pension. The. Boyd report even added a note saying that although AAs benefits costs were the highest in 2010 thy were second from the bottom in 2009 because of the way AA chose to fund the pension. So AAs pretty good at making their numbers say whatever it is they want them to say. You may choose to accept whatever AA tells you without looking a little deeper but I don't. If you feel my numbers or assumption s are wrong then challenge them with a real argument instead of just calling them made up.

Bob, I call them made up because it appears to be impossbile to compare without getting into the apple versus the orange arguement.
And I think it is this way on purpose, so we cannot compare to get into a neutral party arguement.

What is clear is that not every airline has the same number of AMT's per aircraft. This due to productivity differences, outsource differences, and even GPM policy differences.

There is no question that the AA Mechanic and Related is lagging behind in areas. But the TWU doesn't just represent the mechanic and related. I suspect our stock clerks and fleet have a much different cost out than AMT's in a comparative world. And at the table you are going up against other work groups trying to get theirs and AA uses their overall cost when all else fails them. You are sworn allegiance to a union that represents many skills and work groups but you want to single out one group to compare cost. The International and the Company are using all of us and the TWU is designed to be that way for representation.

Faciities Maintenane also represented within our group is another factor that must be costed in or out when comparing.

My point is you cannot provide and I cannot provide factual comparative cost, therefore what you are presenting if not made up is at least nothing more than an assumption. Start providing a disclaimer at the bottom of every one of your post declaring you have no facts and all of your arguements are just opinions and based on assumptions. Because it is being represented as a TWU Local President from the TWU and an appointed member of the creditors committee. And therefore mis-leading at best. Else you might end up in court someday in a DFR lawsuit.

So in the end, all that happens is you spool up the division between line and overhaul, title 2 and title 1, and you can see it posted on this board. So who gets sacrificed and what gets sacrificed so you can get your exact numbers to compare? You are using a craft union mentality in an industrial union elected position and this is not in compliance with your oath of office to uphold the TWU Constitution.

And my point still remains, that NOTHING you have done has changed a damn bit of what the issues and differences are, in fact if anything you have made the problems worse.

You admit that you don't even have factual numbers but challenge me to provide some to dispute your assertions.
I am not the elected leader and I am not the one spewing the erroneous numbers as fact...you are.

Who and What are you willing to sacrifice to insure you get yours??

Because all you are doing is confirming what the TWU claimed all along the AMFA Drive that a democratic craft union will not represent the non-A&P and the overhaul group. You are doing a fine job of that within the TWU. Spool the divisions in this union up a little more will ya? Then plan the next strike or NMB release for 5 years from now.