Airline's (pit) Departure May Ripple Outward

[AA191]

Personally, I do not think a "full" merger will happen. U has many assets that have interetst to many different carriers, but not enough for one carrier to purchase the entire carrier outright.

I think one carrier will buy out the shuttle, or better yet, the slots at LGA and DCA and let DL and AA flight (DCA-LGA_BOS) out. A slot from DCA to Denver, Phoenix, Chicago, Minneapolis, Detroit, Atlanta, and Miami might be worth more than the DCA-LGA market share.

Also, HP is looking to grow and with U flying the Airbus family, why would they not want to quickly pick up some Airbus's and fill them into HP's fleet. It is going to be a fire sale and will be announced in the 3rd quarter.

Virgin America wants in and why would they not want the slots at LGA and DCA?

I do not see U as it is today in 1 year. This next year, 2 - 4 carriers will have pieces of U in their systems. Buying the entire airline just does not make sense for anyone.

 

[savyinvestor]

What's interesting is that I understand the surviving business entity is yet to be determined.

It'll be United, since buying U's assets as they are liquidated does not constitute a "merger." PIT will be a UA focus city, a focus city for either B6 or LUV, airfares will go down, and the life will be good.

In the event of a "merger," all the same will hold true, but the commute to LGA will be a ####.

I agree it will not be a merger, but a purchase of U's assets. The UAL folks will shut the place down before they allow a merger. Look what happened last time. The chipper is hoping and wishing for a merger to save his ###! Savy

 

[USA320Pilot]

United cannot emerge from bankruptcy until it further lowers its costs and convinces the ATSB to provide it a loan guarantee, which is uncertain.

Furthermore, an option is to combine the two companies and transfer the Pittsburgh assets to Dulles to fix United's problem.

I now believe the deal will be a true merger, but again, the surviving business entity is uncertain due to murky restructurings.

Respectfully,

USA320Pilot

 

[ClueByFour]

Some of the points mentioned in the topic are accurate and some are not.

The clay bird has been thrown, the fish is in the barrel.

 

[shaka]

There will be no merger, just a fire sale and UAL will pick up some pieces. Why would anyone want to merge with a company that is getting its clocked clean and will soon be selling assets at distressed levels?

As an earlier poster said, US Air will be spread among several carriers once the sales process begins.

 

[USA320Pilot]

Just one more point...

Previously I said before a corporate combination can occur, US Airways must stabilize the company before the financial community will invest in the company.

That still holds true.

Before a deal will proceed, US Airways must obtain new union contracts with work rule changes and present its "transformation plan" to GECAS and the ATSB. Once these two entities sign on to the new plan, then the corporate combination will occur.

It's inevitable the companies will combine and it will occur with or without union support.

However, if new US Airways union accords are not obtained, then the Arlington-based airline could liquidate.

Respectfully,

USA320Pilot

 

[USA320Pilot]

Shaka:

Your comments are not valid. By the way, if US Airways liquidates that could insure United does not receive the loan guarantee. What's interesting is that the two companies are becoming more and more dependent upon each other and if one fails the other airline could too.

Thus, I understand mutual support is a key factor for the ATSB.

Respectfully,

USA320Pilot

 

[robbedagain]

USA320Pilot: Is UAL healthier more so than US and is it due to the fact that they are staying in CH.11 a lot longer than US did? In todays environment, would UAL have a better shot at surviving that US?

 

[FlyingHippie]

USA320Pilot, US Airways and United DO NOT HAVE MERGE PLANS. US Airways and United both have their own fish to fry without a convuluted mess called a 'merger'. Maybe this merger would happen if you or Forrest Gump were in charge. There are alot of things that look good on paper but never come to fruition, five years ago this would have been a good idea. Today it's not. Legacy carriers have to start thinking different than the past, a merger is in the past. Truth be told, if this company has any chance at all it's quite clear that the employees will have to make some severe lifestyle changes. Because it's going to cost us more of our time and more of our money. Is it worth it? Depends what age you are.

 

[fatherabraham]

Posted: Jan 25 2004, 06:01 PM

Hack73:

I understand the decision on whether or not to sell assets could occur on February 4.

Thus, tic, toc, tic, toc...

Respectfully,

USA320Pilot

USA,

You seem to be hanging out on this thread so I will ask again....What is significant about 04 FEB.?

 

[USAirBoyA330]

The BOD meeting.

 

[fatherabraham]

Thanks

 

[767jetz]

USA320Pilot: What merger are you talking about?????

Who in the world is USA320Pilot that has such so called insight and knowledge about our future. He keeps posting as IF he knows everything and where we are going. He also sounds a bit pompous. Is he management??? :huh:

Don't worry. He's nobody special. Just a guy who has been speculating for over 2 years about various forms of corpoate transactions where UAL and USAir combine or merge. He refers to secret high level sources, but nothing of substance has EVER actually come true. When he is proven wrong by actual events, he either changes his tune or just ingnores the truth in order to avoid accountablility.

95% of the people on this board dismiss his endless banter, since time has proven that it has no substance. Some even indulge in the entertainment of pointing out his misinformation.

You're discription of being pompus is very accurate IMO. This is what fuels the emotion of some around here.

 

[Pacemaker]

In fairness to USA320Pilot, he was also openly speculating about a U/UAL merger months before the last one was announced.

I believe he's on the right track but the details and methodology could result in any one of several scenarios, some possibly very ugly for U employees, and will take months to play out.

 

[767jetz]

Before a deal will proceed, US Airways must obtain new union contracts with work rule changes

...if new US Airways union accords are not obtained, then the Arlington-based airline could liquidate.

Don't be surprised to see some changes in the successorship clauses in your new contract.

Respectfully,
767jetz