Airline's (pit) Departure May Ripple Outward

[funguy2]

I don't particularly care for being called out, so either quote a source or retract your statement.

From a logical standpoint, it's absurd to think that CCY would allow anyone, esepecially a non-MEC U line pilot to have such information (unless using such an outlet to spread FUD).

That said, if you are in the posession of such information, it's almost certainly an SEC violation on your part to post it without naming the source and hoping that such information is public already.

So, in a nutshell, source it or retract it. My speculation and postulations are based on published information. I find it funny to be refuted by unnamed sources whose sentiments cannot be found any public place, but now I'm bored with it.

Just noticing that my other threads get answered immediately by USA320pilot, and yet this request for a source goes unanswered.... Tells me there is no source.

I have a feeling all of you nay sayers are gonna been eating crow real soon ! REAL SOON!

Based on what? Please enlighten us.

No one, especially you, knows what is going to occur in the next few months. Given your prediction track record I'm a bit surprised you're even opening your pie-hole.

Excellent point. USA320Pilots Track Record on being correct: 0. And, interestingly, when UAIR does announce something new, USA320Pilot did not tell us first.

Anyways, congrats on a positive career development. If only all furloughs could be as lucky...

 

[FlyingHippie]

You have got to stop believing in your Ouji board fact finding missions. I know for a fact that airline pilots have a horrible track record in predicting anything.

 

[USA320Pilot]

Magsau:

In regard to your post, today United recorded a Q4 net loss of $476 million. Excluding $294 million in restructuring charges and a $69 million gain the company lost $251 million. The airline said it had a Q4 operating loss of $135 million and for the year a total loss of $2.81 billion, which is staggering.

Meanwhile, Reuters reported another unsettled issue within the bankruptcy process is litigation regarding UAL's municipal bonds. Depending on that ruling, UAL said its fourth-quarter and full-year financial results might be revised.

Again, after US Airways stabilizes its finances and United proves it can emerge from Chapter 11, then the companies will combine.

Regards,

USA320Pilot

 

[autofixer]

A320, Suppose UAIR does not stabilze its finances and/or UAL cannot prove it will emerge from government protection? What then, does the whole house of cards come crashing down on Daves head?

 

[USA320Pilot]

Autofixer:

Yep!

Regards,

USA320Pilot

 

[ual06]

USA320Pilot,

You had your chance to fly the Heavy Metal of UAL and you walked away from the opportunity.

Your expectations of having a second chance is about equal to your chances of being the first Earthling on Mars.

 

[USA320Pilot]

UAL06:

I'm not trying to throw stones, but United's loss was the biggest in the industry this quarter with a whopping $2.81 billion deficit for 2003, its second-worst ever and only slightly better than the $3.21 billion loss for 2002.

The carrier continues to financially bleed and there are reports the company's revised loan guarantee application is not receiving a positive ATSB endorsement.

Again, there will ultimately be a corporate transaction between the business partners, which may be the only way the two companies can survive long-term.

Respectfully,

USA320Pilot

 

[funguy2]

UAL06:

I'm not trying to throw stones, but United's loss was the biggest in the industry this quarter with a whopping $2.81 billion deficit for 2003, its second-worst ever and only slightly better than the $3.21 billion loss for 2002.

The carrier continues to financially bleed and there are reports the company's revised loan guarantee application is not receiving a positive ATSB endorsement.

Again, there will ultimately be a corporate transaction between the business partners, which may be the only way the two companies can survive long-term.

Respectfully,

USA320Pilot

And exactly how do you take a company that has lost 2.81bil in 2003, and combine it with another company which is also producing staggering losses and have a profitable combination. Nobody in their right mind would purposefully invest in such a travesty. UAL has too many of its own problems to even touch US Airways... still.

 

[AOG-N-IT]

Hmmm,

Losses are a relative term when you do a head to head comparison here.

UA is the 2nd largest airline in the world....bigger company bigger losses in thses trying times.

US is the 7th largest airline in the United States...farther down the chain in terms of the entire world.

U is closer in size to the profit making LCC's but still losses money like a carrier many times it's size.

Lets make book on this , UA will find a way to overcome it's probelms in due course , with or certainly without any links to UAIR at all. U on the other hand is much closer to liquidation even with UA's codesharing benefits. U needs to fix itself...and let UA take care of itself , which it assuridly will.

 

[RowUnderDCA]

would the Bush administration prefer to see a liquidation of a major employer in PA in an election year or a ill conceived merger of two crippled carriers that might result in as much disruption, but later and in smaller, less noticeable chunks?

 

[funguy2]

would the Bush administration prefer to see a liquidation of a major employer in PA in an election year or a ill conceived merger of two crippled carriers that might result in as much disruption, but later and in smaller, less noticeable chunks?

Unless of course, the merger tanks the whole thing at the World's largest airline (a combined UAL/UAIR) collapses under its own weight... Of course, being an election year, the Bush Admin probably only cares that the jobs last until December. Of course, I expect the investment community to be the rational ones here, not the government

 

[ClueByFour]

would the Bush administration prefer to see a liquidation of a major employer in PA in an election year or a ill conceived merger of two crippled carriers that might result in as much disruption, but later and in smaller, less noticeable chunks?

The Bush administration has made it perfectly clear to the state of Pennsylvania that it is not willing to stand behind controversial actions that would harm the greater economy to woo the state of Pennsylvania (think steel tariffs).

Further, when the state of Pennsylvania and it's two largest population bases have basically told US to suck wind (in the form of the reluctance of the ACAA to bend over and bail US out in conjunction with PHL officials rolling out the red carpet to woo LUV), it's likely that the administration will take the liquidation.

 

[Traveler]

Again, there will ultimately be a corporate transaction between the business partners, which may be the only way the two companies can survive long-term.

Respectfully,

USA320Pilot

I’ve uncovered evidence which may validate your arguments.

We had Chinese tonight and my fortune reads: “Your business will grow to great proportionsâ€

This could be the Merger you’re speaking of. Once again there will be a new supremacy in Aviation holding the distinguished title of the “Worlds Largest Airlineâ€!

It’s either that or my “business of great proportions†will end up passing disappointedly after coffee tomorrow morning.

There’s a Metaphor here somewhere...

 

[Cosmo]

I'm not trying to throw stones ...

Who are you kidding? You throw stones at United constantly.

The carrier continues to financially bleed ...

So we're to believe that you know more about United's finances than Citigroup and JP Morgan Chase, who are putting up $200 million each in non-guaranteed loans to United? And speaking of bleeding financially, I can't wait to see US Airways' 4th quarter financial report. IMHO, there is a strong likelihood that US Airways' operating loss, if not its net loss, will be larger than United's. We'll see in the next couple of weeks.

... and there are reports the company's revised loan guarantee application is not receiving a positive ATSB endorsement.

What reports? If you can't (or won't) provide a source for such a comment, it is nothing more than your opinion and not deserving of any more consideration than anyone else's opinion.

Again, there will ultimately be a corporate transaction between the business partners, which may be the only way the two companies can survive long-term.

Once again, this is merely your opinion. And while it is still possible (though IMHO very unlikely) that United will not be able to emerge from Chapter 11, if it does emerge, it will IMHO be without any "assistance" from US Airways beyond the current code-sharing/Star Alliance arrangements. US Airways offers United nothing in the way of cost savings and efficiencies that United can't achieve on its own. Your constant harping about a UCT/ICT/merger does not change that fact.

 

[magsau]

USA320Pylot,

The staggering loss for the year you describe should be looked at in context.

In Q1 UAL loss 1.3 billion. This was prior to the finalization of the employee paycuts and many of the operational advances that were made.

In Q2 the cuts started and the negotiations with the lease companies began in earnest. Loss 623 million.

In Q3 Loss was 367 million with 300 million in special charges.

In Q4 the operating loss was 135 mill. net loss of 476 with 225 in special charges.

Do you see the trend USA? The staggering number you quote and describe is out of context with what actually was occuring at the airline. It is almost like comparing the Oct 03 traffic number with the Oct 01 traffic numbers. Those are apples to oranges due to the situation that is being compared.

Make no mistake the UAL situation is of a concern however the banks have not indicated a problem with our emergence. You are the most USA Today'ish type of person I have ever read. All headline and no substance. After alienating the employees of U and the ALPA leadership with your tirades in the Letters to the Editor section of the US hub newspapers you have put yourself on an island. When things do not go well you tell all the other employee groups that they have to give till it hurts (more). When it comes to issues such as your pension you take a hardline unionist stand. I call that a huge contradiction. You can not have it both ways.

When you speak of UAL press reports you like to choose words like staggering and struggling to describe the efforts of reorganization. Well the glass house syndrome must never have occured to you. IMO, U should have stayed in BK longer and gotten the most benefit from reorganization prior to emergence. Instead of the race to exit.

Best of luck to all U employees. I just feel bad that somebody has to sit in a cockpit with this guy for hours on end.