Clear,
I have heard this figure before and you may be correct. I still believe it will be a minimum of a 2.5 year delay at best for those of us who are fortunate and have the time to wait it out. However, it's not just about the time to upgrade. It's also about the quality of the life in the years before and after that point. This is affected for the remainder of one's career. But at least we can be thankful for the attrition. Without it we are all stuck for a very long time.
As for the attrition/retirements you have illustrated. Thank you for bringing it up and pointing out the inequity. I think you missed it, but believe me, we are fully aware of it.
Consider this:
Per your numbers (which I agree are in the ball park) we can expect 300 retirements per year on average beginning 2013. Of those 300 the East brings 83% (250/300) while the West brings 17%. (50/300).
With the ratio NIC used (2:1, 2 East to every 1 West) the East will realize 200 of the 300 retirements each year. Or put another way, the East will recover only 80% of the retirement we bring (200/250), or only 67% of total annual retirements (200/300).
Meanwhile, the West will realise 100 of the 300 annual retirements. This equates to 200% of what you bring (100/50), or 33% of total retirements (100/300).
So, to summarize:
The East provides 83% of the total retirements only to gain 80% of those we bring and only 67% of total retirements. In contrast, the West provides 17% of the total retirements while realizing 33% of the total retirements and a full 200% gain in over what you bring.
Let me say that again,
East: Brings 83%, gets 67% (or 80% of what you brought)
West: Brings 17%, gets 33% (or a FULL 200% of what you brought)
Now, I ask you, who is stealing from who?
Do you see the problem here, and why we believe our attrition was not protected. The West will advance at an accelerated rate while the East's advancement is delayed yet again.
So, if it takes another 5 years, we will continue to fight our fight. After all, under Separate Ops we will continue to capture 100% of our attrition!