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Not my fight, but..................

Had it not been for the employees of UAL helping their company through the ESOP, who knows what would have happened. They put their money where their mouth were and said yes, this is my company, I wish for it to prosper.

Now, we are led to believe this was a bad thing, yet part of the agreement between U and the employees is shares, I believe a 20 percent stake. Considering the give back from the employees of U, this stake is probably to little.

So why is it good in U's case, but not in the case of UAL??

Secondly, speaking of greedy employees, believe the Summer of 2000 is used as an example. U's employees agreed to parity plus one, on paper perhaps doable, but in reality, it raised cost per employee to an extreme level. Partly due to ALPA ILC concept, which i this case, although it was based on comparing a few carriers, raised the level of compensation to, I believe, 278K a year for a U A330 pilot. Comparing U to AMR would seem to indicate a rather large disparity, particularily since AMR is the world largest airline and was profitable, where as U was not, at the time!
I do not recall the U pilots saying that it was simply to rich a contract and that they were willing to consider less than parity plus one.

Now once again, we are hearing the thought that UAL needs U, more than vice versa. U certainly has reduced their losses through concessions, but it may not be enough, considering the continued slow rise, if any, in travel. UAL, and not to mention the other major carriers, still stand to gain more at the failure of U. AMR certainly seem to act like the shark smelling blood, with their latest invention the East Coast Shuttle. Perhaps somewhat aimed at DAL, but squarely aimed at U. U, as it stands, is worth more in parts, than as a whole. Where as I will not restart the argument of TWA and AMR, suffice to say, it has not been the money maker AMR expected it to be, nor has it appreciably changed the power structure within the majors, although AMR gets to proclaim themseves Worlds Largest Airline, a claim that they no doubt would love to trade for a decent profit.

UAL faces some serious problems in the months to come, but like someone else said, perhaps the best thing to do, would be to focus on internal affairs, before venturing out into Magic Bullet territory.

Since emotions do tend to get heated, the above is not intended to chastise anyone, nor start a flame war. In this line of work, one tends to have good friends at all airlines. It is merely meant to further the discussion and for me to gain more knowledge.
 
Chip,

Thanks for the kind words. I enjoy reading and participating on the US board. Frankly, it has implications for UA, in that we appear to be following the same road. So I think it behooves UA employees to pay close attention to what is happening at US because very soon, we could be going through the same thing.

I don't have doubts that the UA union coalition will present some sort of plan to Tilton. My doubts lie in whether the deal will be workable. UA's unions are in a bit of a quandry. For months they've complained about how their input hasn't been solicited to fix UA's problems, or how they have ideas to lower our costs, etc. etc. Well, now that they have their chance, their credibility is on the line. The pressure is on them to present a broad, outside-the-box proposal that doesn't just contain the usual cut 25% of management jobs fluff. However, it appears clear that the delay in finalizing the proposal stems from the unions inability to reach a consensus on the level of pay/benefit cut participation by each group. Time is clearly running out. If the deal isn't given to Tilton by week's end, I think it's time for him to start ratcheting up the pressure. Time is simply a luxury UA doesn't have. Especially since each of the unions will have to ratify any agreement, which at the very least, will take a couple of weeks. That puts us dangerously close to November, when the large debt payments become due. You can bet that UA won't wait until November to declare Ch.11 if that ends up being the way we must go.

As for Siegel and Tilton being the team necessary to pull off a UA/US marriage, maybe that's true. However, I simply can't discount the difficulty involved with pulling off such a deal. Tilton has only been with UA a few weeks. He hasn't yet had the time to build up some credibility and trust. Siegel has proved his mettle with the US employees already. That is clearly evident by what he has accomplished. But Tilton hasn't accomplished anything yet. So he would face an awfully daunting task by trying to sell another marriage of some sort with US Airways while at the same time getting the employees to forget the sour taste in their mouths over the last failed merger debacle. Accomplishing that, in my opinion, would be a master stroke of leadership skill that would put him in management textbook case studies for years to come. Is it impossible? Absolutely not. But it would be a very steep uphill climb.

However, one thing to keep in mind is that much of the concern and fear of the UA employees stems from the fact that there is no plan to fix this company at the present time. We've been shooting from the hip for the last year. So maybe if a clearly-defined plan for UA's turnaround is presented, and part of it includes some sort of deeper relationship with UA Airways, it could win the support of the workforce, especially if the union BOD members endorse it. But I just think that would be tough to pull off as long as labor has those seats on the BOD and veto power over such a transaction. In the end, as difficult as it is for many to believe, getting rid of the current governance structure of UA is in the company's best short-term and long-term interests.
 
The problem with UA's ESOP wasn't in the notion of giving back wages for stock. The problems went beyond that. First off, the stock vested when you retired, which, in my opinion, was lousy.

However, the failure of the ESOP was due to it breeding unrealistic expectations on both sides of the fence. Senior Management embraced it as an opportunity to grow the company and reap the profits, but they never considered that they also had to hold up their end of the bargain by valuing employees and empowering them and leading them, not intimidating them and taking their contribution for granted. The internal employee surveys conducted during the ESOP clearly pointed that out. Yet Senior UA Mgmt chose to ignore it. So the ESOP merely stopped the clock and disguised the problem.

Labor viewed the ESOP unrealistically as well. They expected that it would magically fix the problems of the company. The fact of the matter is that majority employee-owned airlines do not work. Each union has its' own interests and agenda that most often directly conflict with the interests and agenda of the other unions and the company as a whole. And, being unions, when push comes to shove, they will always use job actions as a means of getting senior management's attention when they feel they've been wronged. Tell me how that is acting in the interests of an employee owner.

I don't deny the fact that at the time, the ESOP was probably the best option presented. But BOTH sides could have and should have worked harder to make it work.

Giving employees stock in return for their givebacks isn't a bad thing, so long as it's not majority control of the company and so long as those shares can vest prior to retirement.
 
UAL777flyer:

With the airline industry spiraling out of control and in particular the problems at UA, US, & HP indicating the consequences of inaction, some sort of industry-wide coordinated plan may need to be implemented on a macroeconomic scale.

I agree with you that the major problem for UA is no business plan, but a major part of that problem is the ESOP governance issue. This point is clear to an outsider, when the emotional ESOP attachment does not cloud a person’s thought process.

Employee stock ownership, profit sharing, and board representation can be mutually beneficial programs because everybody feels part of the team and it creates trust, something that appears to be missing at UA.

I believe UA may be stuck in quick sand with no way out but to formally restructure, unless immediate steps are taken including giving up the governance issue so management can make the painful decisions necessary to restructure. Will this happen? Probably not.

The company has no short or long-term business restructuring plan, is burning through an enormous amount of money, has significant Q4/Q1 debt payments, and has been informally rejected by the ATSB, but even more important the airline has a huge internal problem that could prevent a positive outcome. I thought Jamie Baker’s comment of “It's not only labor against management, it's labor against laborâ€, was accurate and is the crux of the issue at hand for all UA employees.

This labor against labor issue is not unique to US or UA and for that matter even unique to other industry’s, it’s about a union trying to limit its own giveback and having other employee groups absorb more. This is an argument where there is likely as many opinions as there are employees and unless management has the ability to step in and either make difficult decisions without governance issues or be the “Zig Ziglar of Salesâ€, employees rarely reach a consensus.

I agree that the union coalition will provide a restructuring plan to Tilton, but if Crain’s comments below are the major basis of the plan, I believe time will be too short to prevent a bankruptcy filing.

Crain’s Business News said: (The union plan will) call for a reduction in headquarters jobs and further changes in top management, as well as a significant overhaul of the company's operations to reduce costs. There will be 'sizable' concessions, but labor is striving for an alternative to the company's call for $9 billion in wage cuts, benefit reductions and work rule changes over six years in order to qualify for a federal loan guarantee and avoid bankruptcy. 'There is recognition that United needs immediate cash. But there are other places to find cash flow other than immediate access to employees' paychecks,' says a union source, referring to United's 'top-heavy' workforce, hub-and-spoke system and traditional focus on the business traveler.

In conclusion, there are strong rumors circulating that there could be major news announced shortly regarding the US restructuring, in addition to Thursday’s Omnibus Hearing, where the agenda has two major items. These items are approval of the debtor-in-possession financing plan and to formalize procedures for the equity investor. The Alabama Pension fund has objected to TPG’s request that the firm have the opportunity to see any competing offers and breaking reports indicate investors may change their requirements/plans, which could affect both US & UA.

Chip
 
Im sure Carl is lurking out their ready to strike.Is he still looking for an airline to dump his worthless tickets he s got?
 
Real simple:

Stock prices for all the airlines are down, way down. If you ever wanted to obtain an airline through stock - now is the time.

Carl Ichan are you out there?
 
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On 9/24/2002 11:41:24 AM Diesel8 wrote:

Not my fight, but..................

Had it not been for the employees of UAL helping their company through the ESOP, who knows what would have happened. Now, we are led to believe this was a bad thing, yet part of the agreement between U and the employees is shares, I believe a 20 percent stake.

So why is it good in U's case, but not in the case of UAL??

I believe, 278K a year for a U A330 pilot.
Now once again, we are hearing the thought that UAL needs U, more than vice versa. U certainly has reduced their losses through concessions, but it may not be enough, considering the continued slow rise, if any, in travel. UAL, and not to mention the other major carriers, still stand to gain more at the failure of U.

AMR gets to proclaim themseves "Worlds Largest Airline", a claim that they no doubt would love to trade for a decent profit.

UAL faces some serious problems in the months to come, but like someone else said, perhaps the best thing to do, would be to focus on internal affairs, before venturing out into "Magic Bullet" territory.

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Dang you 8, very good post!

Couple of points to add, Chip says the ESOP was BAD and the governance issues are killing UAL. I'd ask, once again, NAME ONE THING THE UNION BOD MEMBERS DID THAT PROVED TO BE BAD FOR UAL! Just one will do.


As for pay rates, a 747-400 loaded SWA or Jblu size, holds about 550 folks, or more than 3 times Jblus 320s or 4 times more than a SWA 737. The 400 is easier on fuel for a given load. The pay rate for the 400 is NOT 3 to 4 times more than the smaller jets, so it would follow that the front end crew cost, although significant, are NOT the problem.

Being the biggest these days only means, unfortunately, that you lose the most money. The simpliest solution is to get rid of the better than 20% in taxes on each and every ticket. The Tax on Cruise ships is 0.5% and for buses and trains, it's 0%. Getting rid of the tax COMPLETELY for 3 to 5 years would be the fairest most equitable way to help' the airlines. Ticket prices WOULD go down, Yields WOULD go up and more people WOULD fly, meaning more currently furloughed employees WOULD come back to work (more income and SS Tax revenue), and airlines WOULD take delivery of more jets (more jobs!!). See a trend?

I agree that ALL the airlines need to focus on thier own house. If UAL WAS commited to BK and all the wild plans Chip thinks we'll do with U, then WHY HAVEN'T WE ALREADY? wouldn't it follow that we'd save big dollars by going ugly early?
 
[P]What United needs to do is [STRONG]start service to Baghdad[/STRONG]. By entering the Iraqi market, they will divert the attention of their people from their severe economic problems. This should enhance their chances of getting the support they need by duping their union-member voters as those people begin casting ballots on a reorganization plan in the near future, probably early November. [img src='http://www.usaviation.com/idealbb/images/smilies/11.gif'] [img src='http://www.usaviation.com/idealbb/images/smilies/6.gif'] [/P]
[P]Of course United's leaders should be prepared to begin this service [STRONG]unilaterally[/STRONG] should IATA, Lufthansa, Air France, Aeroflot, Air China, Egypt Air, Saudi Air, Gulf Air, Royal Jordanian, Qantas, Air New Zealand, Air Canada, Singapore Air, Garuda, Malaysian Air, ThaiAir, Air India, SAS, KLM, Alitalia, Iberia, Air Portugal, Olympic, Austrian Air, SwissAir, Korean Air, Japan Air, Cathay Pacific, DragonAir, RyanAir, Aer Lingus, FinlandAir, LOT, Philippine Air, Varig, Lan Chile, Aero Mexico, Air Jamaica, Avianca or jetPink raise objections. [img src='http://www.usaviation.com/idealbb/images/smilies/9.gif'] [/P]
[P]Throw all those parked 747-400's on the route. Not sure about the loads going in, but there should be great loads coming out. And who woulda thought the answer to this mess was starting service to the Middle East? [img src='http://www.usaviation.com/idealbb/images/smilies/2.gif'] Don't forget to hedge that fuel![/P]
 
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On 9/24/2002 2:20:25 PM jj wrote:

Is he still looking for an airline to dump his worthless tickets he s got?
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Actually he sold Lowestfare.com almost a year ago.
 
There is a very good reason that Carl Ichan, Marvin Davis or (perish the thought) Frank Lorenzo javen't surfaced yet in chum-filled waters: there's nothing of these airlines left to steal (and there are likely more promising hunting grounds right now in some less troubled industry. For God's sake, even Emil Bernard hasn't been uttered a peep!

UAL777 eloquently states the case for an elaborate, time-consuming, consensus building effort at UAL, led by some employee-centric management team whose principal interest is miximizing benefit (or, conversely, minimizing pain) to the various UAL labor groups in this 11th hour struggle to save the great carrier from itself (and bankruptcy). But, as UAL777 probably expects, I see such efforts (and their focus) as inherently misguided and almost certain to fail. The only management actions that would benefit UAL at the moment are of the swift and decisive sort -- the kind that Glenn Tilton would appear constitutionally incapable of making and implementing.

As everyone who has read my earlier posts probably understands, my view has been that UAL's particular circumstances (and its governance challenges coupled with so much denial among its labor groups) are, perversely, more likely to be the driver of CHIP's unique corporate transaction with USAir (probably sometime after a UAL Ch.11 filing). But I am becoming increasingly concerned for the health of the entire industry -- and not so much steming from the domino theory that has been identified as the root of AMR and DAL hostility toward USAir currently and the potential for its combination with a bankrupt UAL). CHIP's most recent post alludes to the fact that external events (and the deterioration of airline finances) may be moving along much more rapidly than anyone presently appreciates. In this environment, almost anything may become possible. But one thing is very certain, the quaint turf wars of the past, fought between and among airline unions over largely seniority-based concerns, will be the least of the challenges that appear set to emerge.
 
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On 9/24/2002 7:11:47 PM argentomaranello wrote:

I am becoming increasingly concerned for the health of the entire industry.

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As we all are.My biggest concern at this point is that Dubya is going to play Lone Ranger in Iraq, causing potentially fatal injury to an already floundering business.

His fathers foray into the big sand was the final nail in the coffins of Eastern and Pan Am (CRAF, Jet-A prices,Public afraid to fly),lets hope we don't have two or more airlines perish during this Bush presidency.
 
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On 9/24/2002 8:22:08 PM JFK Fleet Service wrote:

His fathers foray into the big sand was the final nail in the coffins of Eastern and Pan Am (CRAF, Jet-A prices,Public afraid to fly),lets hope we don't have two or more airlines perish during this Bush presidency.


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Unfortunately, the last administration turned down repeated offers to hand over Bin Laden, and put the kybash on a coup attempt in Iraq, just hours before it was to start (Read See No Evil). Do you not think that Sadam is a threat? Or would you just like to wait for a smoking gun like 9/11? (sadly it was the 4th or 5th shot fired at us). remember, a smoking has already been fired. BTW, Gore voted in favor of DS, or did you forget?
 
I am aware Sadam is a threat, and I am not suggesting we put our heads in the sand either.

What concerns me is Bush trying to pull a Teddy Roosevelt and charge up the modern day San Juan Hill in Iraq by himself.To hear him carrying on last week,he was sounding like he was going to do it regardless of what the rest of the world says or does.

If he does something like that, we're hosed.


As for what the previous administration did/didn't do/should've done, the sped arrow can not be recalled once released.

If they had enough Intel to launch cruise missiles at training camps, they should have prosecuted until the threat was neutralized.

Of course that strike was dismissed as an attempt to shift the public's focus from the hillbilly circus in the doublewide trailer at 1600 Pennsylvania.A real life Wag the Dog if you will.


With regard to smoking guns,I saw enough rising in the weeks following September 11.

From the ramp at Kennedy we had a clear view of the smoke rising from that funeral pyre.
 
Of course domestic civil aviation is threatened by the sabre-rattling over Iraq -- and the consequences for the industry won't differ at all whether the action is a pre-emptive, unilateral strike or carried out under the guise of another UN resolution. The effect would be the same -- devastating. But my point is actually independent of Iraq. Grossly disturbing evidence is mounting that not only is the fall off in RASM likely permanent, its rate of deterioration has yet to show any sign of abatement. The real message of today's show on Capitol Hill may have been that no amount of internal restructuring, even if undertaken and implemented tomorrow, can save the bulk of the industry. Some kind of taxpayer funded subsidy program may be the only salvation.
 
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