SWA now getting involved with slot (s) possibilities

[FrugalFlyerv2.0]

While having the population is obviously better if certain statistical properties and tests are met a sufficiently large sample can be representative of the population. While not perfect the DB1B tables can provide good insight.

Josh

While I'm no statistician, I believe the 10% sample size could give a pretty decent snapshot of AA at DFW.  10% of 800 or so AA flights at DFW is probably more accurate (or representative?) than a 10% sample size of DLs flights at DFW?

 

[WorldTraveler]

While I'm no statistician, I believe the 10% sample size could give a pretty decent snapshot of AA at DFW.  10% of 800 or so AA flights at DFW is probably more accurate than 10% sample size of DLs flights at DFW?

a 10% sample of 40K passengers is just as representative of the whole as 10% of 400K is.... or any other number.

DL's operation at DFW is more than large enough to be statistically accurate... or else there are a whole lot of cities throughout the US where the data is inaccurate for ALL carriers.

And again, if the data was inaccurate for all but large hubs, then the data reported to the SEC would show it.

But it doesn't.

SEC and DOT data do correlate quite well.

 

[WNMECH]

That's an interesting perspective.  I've heard that when the Southwest-Westjet codeshare was being conceived, the major problem at the time was the WN computer system not being capable to handle codesharing.  This was going to be fixed by WN upgrading their system.  However, WN decided to instead pursue Airtran and more-or-less said FU to Westjet we're too busy with Airtran to pay attention to you.
 
I've always had the opinion that Westjet - Southwest codeshare could work very nicely.  I believe there are enough Canadians that are very loyal to Westjet (not just vacation destinations) and these customers would love the opportunity of connecting to WN (most likely via DEN, ORD, BWI) to other destinations in the USA if given the option.  Right now AC-UA have a pretty good lock on the trans-border market.

http://www.cbc.ca/m/touch/business/story/1.939396

I have heard, we plan on flying to the Great White North on our own metal in the near future.
Beauty, eh?

Take off.

 

[737823]

While I'm no statistician, I believe the 10% sample size could give a pretty decent snapshot of AA at DFW.  10% of 800 or so AA flights at DFW is probably more accurate (or representative?) than a 10% sample size of DLs flights at DFW?

It's not necessarily 10% of AA at DFW, it's 10% across the board of all domestic itineraries. There are several different DB1B tables available on the RITA website. DB1B ticket for example, is a 10% sample of all domestic tickets from the reporting carriers.

http://www.transtats.bts.gov/Tables.asp?DB_ID=125

Josh

 

[WorldTraveler]

http://www.cbc.ca/m/touch/business/story/1.939396
I have heard, we plan on flying to the Great White North on our own metal in the near future.
Beauty, eh?
Take off.

It is a given. Taxes to/from Canada are some of the most complicated.

With international pricing which WN willl have soon. Canada is a given

 

[Kev3188]

Regardless whether DL is #2, or #3 or #5, you need to carefully pick the number that fits the DL Domination Theory .....
Resistance is futile, all will be assimilateDL.

+1
 
 

Can you post a sample of the MIDT data?
 
I, like probably a whole bunch of others on here, have nothing against DL, they're a fine company.  But the DL dominates everything narrative is a bit too much.

Indeed. It's all a bit much, and that's coming from someone that works there.
 
 

Now grow up and stop the he said she said game, it will not work with us...

Be patient. Peddling a narrative to a group of informed people can be a tough climb.
 

While having the population is obviously better if certain statistical properties and tests are met a sufficiently large sample can be representative of the population. While not perfect the DB1B tables can provide good insight.

Josh

True, but insight =/= full picture and/or accuracy.
 
Let's also remember that we've been called upon by another user to make only data-driven points, so...
 

WT:  I'm sorry, but I cannot buy this.  Just on the surface it seems ridiculous.  I mean, DL had a hub at DFW, closed it down, and now is stronger than ever in the N. Texas?  Come on man, this is almost as bad as you stating on the DL forum that despite stopping SFO-NRT DL will gain even more % of the international market because of their stronger connection possibilities in SEA/LAX to Asia.  It just defies logic.  Now if you're just claiming that DL is "stronger than it has been for years" from DFW to their hubs, then OK, that may be a lot more believable.  Perhaps DL has higher fares than previously from DFW to their hubs, or carries even more people between DFW and their hubs compared to 10 years ago, then claiming DL is now stronger is believable.  But just making a blanket statement(s) like that doesn't pass the smell test.

The question to be asked is: If it's stronger than ever now, how bad was it in the first place?

a 10% sample of 40K passengers is just as representative of the whole as 10% of 400K is.... or any other number.

Not necessarily.

There is a huge fixation that the number of flights equates to power but that is absolutely not proven in reality.

You might want to grab a seat with that crowd, since you talk about size=power quite often.

 

[WNMECH]

Moved from wrong thread by WNMECH.

While dl has publicly stated they want the gates... no one knows whats going on behind the scenes

I agree.
I just wonder why was AA told to give up gates at DAL in the first place.
What was the argument at the beginning, behind closed doors?
I understand DCA and LGA.
But why DAL?

I know DL was not in the discussions in the beginning with the DOJ, and they are playing catch up.
But what do you think was the reasoning in the beginning to have AA give up DAL gates?

The answer may tell us what will happen with these gates in the end.

 

[robbedagain]

Wn I wonder that too as well as bos lax and ord I agree that dl just is playing catch up but accrding to wt dl has got to be the best the nbr 1 and the king of all airlines

 

[WorldTraveler]

Moved from wrong thread by WNMECH.

I agree.
I just wonder why was AA told to give up gates at DAL in the first place.
What was the argument at the beginning, behind closed doors?
I understand DCA and LGA.
But why DAL?

I know DL was not in the discussions in the beginning with the DOJ, and they are playing catch up.
But what do you think was the reasoning in the beginning to have AA give up DAL gates?

The answer may tell us what will happen with these gates in the end.

...because WN made it clear to the DOJ that AA has tried for years to eliminate WN's ability to compete against AA.

That argument is between AA and WN and doesn't involve DL.

The notion that DL should not be able to fly to DAL because AA and WN have this decades long hatred for each other is pure fantasy on both airlines' part in their desire to try to get a leg up ..... the last laugh is DL's since they will be able to do what neither AA or WN has been able to do.

DL is intent on building the most robust network, robbed, and no one has ever denied that AA has a lot of premium revenue as part of its network.
It is precisely because everyone has their sights on AA's revenue over the next year that the sledding will be more than tough.

DAL may be the most symbolic foray of another carrier into AA's strength markets because it involves both AA and WN's home airports, but there are way too many people who underestimate the magnitude of competitive increases that will happen across AA's network in the next few years at DAL, DCA, JFK, LHR, MIA and in Latin America and to the west coast.

DL pulled off the first megamerger and is best positioned to capitalize on strategic opportunities. Whether you want to hear that or not, that is the truth and Wall Street clearly believes it given DL's market capitalization premium compared to other US airlines.

2014 will be the most pivotal year in reshaping the US airline industry since deregulation.

Mark my words.

 

[WNMECH]

...because WN made it clear to the DOJ that AA has tried for years to eliminate WN's ability to compete against AA.

That argument is between AA and WN and doesn't involve DL.

This answers my questions partially.
The rest of your post is pontificating drivel.

So lets assume you are correct that the DOJ told AA to give up their DAL gates because of WN, and that it doesn't involve DL.

It reasons to me that DL might not be high on the list to get those gates.

Although I still think DL will still be able to fly from Love Field when this is over.

 

[WorldTraveler]

your logic and desire is that the DOJ is in the game of letting WN get even with AA by throwing every idea about monopolies out the window.

While I think the country (or at least parts of it) will regret giving up all of the gates at DCA to low fare carriers who will serve a small fraction of the nation's population (all of the LCCs in the US combined do not serve as many cities as US, the former smallest legacy carrier), there is no desire to create a duopoly in N. Texas - and a whole lot of will to make sure it doesn't happen.

The Wright Amendment should have never happened... it has provided an unbalanced market for decades that never existed anywhere else in the US... it is time for it to fully go.

Expecting that it will be replaced by a duopoly is fantasy. N. Texas needs true competition.

The only reason why it won't happen in full at DAL is because the airport is too small now and because few other carriers besides DL are willing to take on WN.

I'm glad we both agree that DL will be at DAL since they have published schedules.

WN has enormous opportunities in front of them in 2014 and WN will gain enormously as the industry reshapes. You have worked hard to make it happen and you should be proud of what you will achieve when you look back one year from now.

Just remember that WN became what it is now because it competed aggressively... this is no time to decide that you want to stop competing and existing in a monopoly.

I have long said that the industry will be led by DL and WN and we are on the verge of seeing that happen in the next 12 months.

 

[robbedagain]

Since when did u say that DL wld lead the industry? May be DL will take over all the hubs and split it w WN

WN I still dont know whats behind with the new aa giving up 2 slots at bos and lax and ord

 

[Kev3188]

2014 will be the most pivotal year in reshaping the US airline industry since deregulation.

Mark my words.

That's a pretty safe prediction to make, though I might say 9/11 was the most pivotal...
 
 

I'm glad we both agree that DL will be at DAL since they have published schedules.

I don't think WNMECH said anything about the publishing of proposed schedules directly correlating to DL's continued serving of DAL. Can you show us where that was written? I may have missed it.

 

[eolesen]

Can you post a sample of the MIDT data?

Nope. It's a paid data subscription that we sell, and proving WT wrong just isn't worth it.

a 10% sample of 40K passengers is just as representative of the whole as 10% of 400K is.... or any other number.

DL's operation at DFW is more than large enough to be statistically accurate... or else there are a whole lot of cities throughout the US where the data is inaccurate for ALL carriers.

And again, if the data was inaccurate for all but large hubs, then the data reported to the SEC would show it.

But it doesn't.

SEC and DOT data do correlate quite well.

Nice try, Skippy. If the DOT data (free) were comparable, then you wouldn't see airlines spending on the order of seven figures a year to buy the MIDT data from Sabre, Travelport, and Amadeus.

Look at any two carriers in a market where one carrier has a larger presence than the other, and you'll see the higher average fare play out for the smaller carrier in the samples.

But when you start looking at the same market using a 100% sample of your own data, and start considering other factors such as RBD's, cabin, sales channel, and tying in the ancillaries such as bag fees, the story becomes much different than the conclusions you might draw from only looking at T-100/DB1B.

DB1B/T100 is good for forecasting within a broad MOE, but that's about it.

 

[WorldTraveler]

E,
since you work for a private GDS, I don't expect you to see the value of government data but GDS-sourced data has even more holes because there is more and more data - including from carriers like WN - that never go thru GDSs.

GDSs try to "true up" their data to the whole picture but they have holes.

As with any statistical data, there are checks and balances to make sure it is accurate within the sample and I don't doubt that the GDSs do their homework.

That is a conversation that is well beyond the boundaries of this thread....
what doesn't change is that you and others have demonstrated for a long time a desire to keep DL out of DAL.

Problem is the competition you want to appear to swoop in and take the gates from DL doesn't exist because they have no desire to take on WN.

DL will serve DAL and DFW and will benefit from it.

Kev,
9/11 reshaped the industry between the LCCs and legacies but everyone suffered.

2014 will be a reshaping of the industry within the legacies IN ADDITION to between the LCCs and legacies.

Your 2nd statement is incorrect because you misunderstood what was said.


robbed, AA is not giving up slots at BOS, LAX, and ORD because there are no slots at those airports. AA is giving up gates because the DOJ was concerned that the barriers to entry for expansion are too high at those airports. That was their decision but AA is apparently going to operate gates out of T3 and 4 at LAX as well as the remote Eagle terminal so they will be very spread out across several terminals. I don't know if there is resolution regarding gate divestitures at other airports which also included MIA but US had already resolved that by moving to AA's facilities.