Rumor: AA LAX-SEA/PDX June 2014

[robbedagain]

Thanks e silverbird thats tooo funny

 

[WorldTraveler]

thanks for the link, E.

Perhaps you and MAH can help me out here but the link you cites shows that a number of the most heavily traveled routes still have Open Skies. True or not?

From the document you cited:

1. Airlines of both Parties may operate unlimited scheduled combination frequencies, except with respect to the following:

a. Effective immediately, airlines of the United States may operate up to a total of one hundred twelve (112) weekly round-trip frequencies on frequency-restricted routes.
b. Effective immediately, airlines of Colombia may operate up to a total of one hundred twenty (120) weekly round-trip frequencies on frequency-restricted routes.
c. Effective January 1, 2012, airlines of the United States may operate up to a total of one hundred thirty-three (133) weekly round-trip frequencies on frequency-restricted routes.
d. Effective January 1, 2012, airlines of Colombia may operate up to a total of one hundred forty-one (141) weekly round-trip frequencies on frequency-restricted routes.
e. The frequency-restricted routes are:

i. Atlanta-Bogota
ii. Ft. Lauderdale-Bogota
iii. Ft. Lauderdale-Cali
iv. Ft. Lauderdale-Medellin
v. Houston-Bogota
vi. Los Angeles-Bogota
vii. Miami-Bogota
viii. Miami-Cali
ix. Miami-Medellin
x. New York/Newark-Bogota
xi. New York/Newark-Medellin
xii. Orlando-Bogota
xiii. Washington-Bogota

if there are still capacity limits on any part of the agreement, then it isn't Open Skies.

WT WN is in ATL , they are going to squeeze DL in ATL. I predict DL will close the ATL hub next year. There is no way DL can compete! DTW will be the new HQ. DL will probably discontinue all trans Atlantic flights next spring ( due to the US operation) I predict the new Delta will be painted in the old NW livery. DL will be forced into Chapter 11 and change back to Northwest livery and name. I know this is true because a Delta fa told me.

except that WN ISN'T growing its capacity in ATL and has in fact reduced its capacity. Since your friends are so good here at using the internet to find articles, I'm sure someone can find one that shows how many FL/WN flights have been cut from ATL even though there were made comments made about how important ATL was to the network at the time the merger was announced.

Also please don't forget to find articles about all of the cities that have lost WN/FL service altogether. WN/FL has pulled far more service from spoke cities than any network carrier did after any merger. Network carriers might have pulled a few RJs or even small turboprop flights while WN/FL were serving these cities with mainline jets.. in many cases the 717s that are now being transferred to DL.

Can you find those articles for us?

 

[MAH4546]

thanks for the link, E.

Perhaps you and MAH can help me out here but the link you cites shows that a number of the most heavily traveled routes still have Open Skies. True or not?

From the document you cited:

1. Airlines of both Parties may operate unlimited scheduled combination frequencies, except with respect to the following:

a. Effective immediately, airlines of the United States may operate up to a total of one hundred twelve (112) weekly round-trip frequencies on frequency-restricted routes.
b. Effective immediately, airlines of Colombia may operate up to a total of one hundred twenty (120) weekly round-trip frequencies on frequency-restricted routes.
c. Effective January 1, 2012, airlines of the United States may operate up to a total of one hundred thirty-three (133) weekly round-trip frequencies on frequency-restricted routes.
d. Effective January 1, 2012, airlines of Colombia may operate up to a total of one hundred forty-one (141) weekly round-trip frequencies on frequency-restricted routes.
e. The frequency-restricted routes are:

i. Atlanta-Bogota
ii. Ft. Lauderdale-Bogota
iii. Ft. Lauderdale-Cali
iv. Ft. Lauderdale-Medellin
v. Houston-Bogota
vi. Los Angeles-Bogota
vii. Miami-Bogota
viii. Miami-Cali
ix. Miami-Medellin
x. New York/Newark-Bogota
xi. New York/Newark-Medellin
xii. Orlando-Bogota
xiii. Washington-Bogota

if there are still capacity limits on any part of the agreement, then it isn't Open Skies.
 

 
All those capacity limits you state were dropped January 1, 2013. The market is 100% open skies, which is how AA is now 3x daily MIABOG.

 

[LD3]

 

Ah memories...

 
Listen Mister, you know what happened last time you talked about the good ol days.....

 

[WorldTraveler]

deleted.....


deleted

 

[737823]

Josh ill take it off topic just a bit... pvd to mia cld be served may be w an e190 or an airbus 319 im not too sure if the 175 can do it nonstop but I wld imagine pvd probably can draw traffic from a large area of canada n new England as for pdx n sea I cld see mia clt phl jfk ord dfw lax flights but im not all too familiar w the geographic areas

 
 

Uh, why would PVD to MIA draw traffic from New England and Canada any more than BDL or BOS-MIA already does?

PVD has already proven it can't support mainline service to a number of hubs, so what has changed? Why not ORH instead of PVD, since it's closer to Canada?...

Better yet, why would there be a draw between SEA/PDX and the other east coast cities mentioned? What's the logical connection between businesses in one place or the other? Shipping? Tourism? Banking?

Not saying that the service couldn't be supported, but you don't launch nonstop service just to connect little dots with big dots on a route map...

PVD has mainline DL, UA, and US.

MHT has mainline DL and US and had mainline UA (757's no less) until August 2009.

BOS has seven MIA flights as it is and upto eight in the winter mostly 757s, AA has run 777s and 763s in the past and the BDL flight also does well. The network planners will figure this out, but I know some of the US executives have remarked on connecting MIA with cities exclusively served by US pre-merger along with adding a TLV flight. Maybe its just the usual empty promises to garner support for the merger, but the trend for AA at MIA has only been upward over the past 25 years.

Josh

 

[Kev3188]

 
 
Listen Mister, you know what happened last time you talked about the good ol days.....

 
 
Lol. Indeed I do.
 

 

[WorldTraveler]

any idea where that plane is now?

 

[eolesen]

thanks for the link, E.

Perhaps you and MAH can help me out here but the link you cites shows that a number of the most heavily traveled routes still have Open Skies. True or not?

From the document you cited:

1. Airlines of both Parties may operate unlimited scheduled combination frequencies, except with respect to the following:

a. Effective immediately, airlines of the United States may operate up to a total of one hundred twelve (112) weekly round-trip frequencies on frequency-restricted routes.
b. Effective immediately, airlines of Colombia may operate up to a total of one hundred twenty (120) weekly round-trip frequencies on frequency-restricted routes.
c. Effective January 1, 2012, airlines of the United States may operate up to a total of one hundred thirty-three (133) weekly round-trip frequencies on frequency-restricted routes.
d. Effective January 1, 2012, airlines of Colombia may operate up to a total of one hundred forty-one (141) weekly round-trip frequencies on frequency-restricted routes.
e. The frequency-restricted routes are:

i. Atlanta-Bogota
ii. Ft. Lauderdale-Bogota
iii. Ft. Lauderdale-Cali
iv. Ft. Lauderdale-Medellin
v. Houston-Bogota
vi. Los Angeles-Bogota
vii. Miami-Bogota
viii. Miami-Cali
ix. Miami-Medellin
x. New York/Newark-Bogota
xi. New York/Newark-Medellin
xii. Orlando-Bogota
xiii. Washington-Bogota

if there are still capacity limits on any part of the agreement, then it isn't Open Skies.



except that WN ISN'T growing its capacity in ATL and has in fact reduced its capacity. Since your friends are so good here at using the internet to find articles, I'm sure someone can find one that shows how many FL/WN flights have been cut from ATL even though there were made comments made about how important ATL was to the network at the time the merger was announced.

Also please don't forget to find articles about all of the cities that have lost WN/FL service altogether. WN/FL has pulled far more service from spoke cities than any network carrier did after any merger. Network carriers might have pulled a few RJs or even small turboprop flights while WN/FL were serving these cities with mainline jets.. in many cases the 717s that are now being transferred to DL.

Can you find those articles for us?

Ah, WT.... still haven't figured out how to read a document to the end, eh?...
 

ANNEX
TRANSITIONAL PROVISIONS

SECTION 1
ROUTE SCHEDULE

Notwithstanding the provisions of Article 2, the following provisions shall apply to scheduled combination services:

1. An airline or airlines designated by the Government of the United States shall be entitled to operate air transportation on the route specified below:

a. Effective immediately, from points behind the United States, via the United States and intermediate points to Barranquilla, Bogota, Cali, Cartagena de Indias, Medellin, and beyond.
b. Effective immediately, for purposes of serving as the non-operating carrier on a code-share-only basis, from points behind the United States, via the United States and intermediate points to six (6) additional points[1] in Colombia and beyond.
c. Effective January 1, 2012, for purposes of serving as the non-operating carrier on a code-share-only basis, from points behind the United States, via the United States and intermediate points to points in Colombia and beyond.

2. An airline or airlines designated by the Government of Colombia shall be entitled to operate air transportation on the route specified below:

a. Effective immediately, from points behind Colombia, via Colombia and intermediate points to Miami, New York, San Juan, Orlando, and eight (8) additional points[2] in the United States and beyond.
b. Effective immediately, from points behind Colombia, via Colombia and intermediate points, to Los Angeles or San Francisco[3] and beyond.
c. Effective immediately, for purposes of serving as the non-operating carrier on a code-share-only basis, from points behind Colombia, via intermediate points to twelve (12) additional points1 in Colombia and beyond.
d. Effective January 1, 2012, for purposes of serving as the non-operating carrier on a code-share-only basis, from points behind Colombia, via Colombia and intermediate points to points in the United States and beyond.

SECTION 2
CAPACITY

1. Airlines of both Parties may operate unlimited scheduled combination frequencies, except with respect to the following:

a. Effective immediately, airlines of the United States may operate up to a total of one hundred twelve (112) weekly round-trip frequencies on frequency-restricted routes.
b. Effective immediately, airlines of Colombia may operate up to a total of one hundred twenty (120) weekly round-trip frequencies on frequency-restricted routes.
c. Effective January 1, 2012, airlines of the United States may operate up to a total of one hundred thirty-three (133) weekly round-trip frequencies on frequency-restricted routes.
d. Effective January 1, 2012, airlines of Colombia may operate up to a total of one hundred forty-one (141) weekly round-trip frequencies on frequency-restricted routes.
e. The frequency-restricted routes are:

i. Atlanta-Bogota
ii. Ft. Lauderdale-Bogota
iii. Ft. Lauderdale-Cali
iv. Ft. Lauderdale-Medellin
v. Houston-Bogota
vi. Los Angeles-Bogota
vii. Miami-Bogota
viii. Miami-Cali
ix. Miami-Medellin
x. New York/Newark-Bogota
xi. New York/Newark-Medellin
xii. Orlando-Bogota
xiii. Washington-Bogota

2. Both Parties may authorize, by common agreement, additional capacity increases on the frequency-restricted routes in order to address special market conditions.

3. The frequency limitations in this Section do not apply to the non-operating carriers participating in code-share arrangements.

SECTION 3
COOPERATIVE MARKETING ARRANGEMENTS

Notwithstanding the provisions of Article 8, the following provisions shall apply to scheduled combination services:

1. Effective immediately, in operating or holding out the authorized services under the Agreement, any airline of one Party may enter into cooperative marketing arrangements such as blocked-space, code-sharing, interchange or leasing arrangements, with:

a. An airline or airlines of either Party;
b. An airline or airlines of a third country located in North America, South America, Central America and the Caribbean; and
c. A surface transportation provider of any country

provided that all participants in such arrangements (i) hold the appropriate authority and (ii) meet the requirements normally applied to such arrangements.

2. This Section shall expire on December 31, 2011.

SECTION 4
EXPIRY OF ANNEXES

This Annex shall expire on December 31, 2012.

Shorter version: Colombia has been Open Skies since the beginning of the year, which is what the people who actually pay attention to details told you earlier in the week.

I'm told Tabasco goes well with crow.... let us know, OK?

 

[WorldTraveler]

actually, I did see that which is why I have only been discussing GRU at this point.

good to know that DL could throw in some more BOG flying if it wanted. Maybe MIA-BOG will be an early market add for DL?

Of course part of the reason why I was surprised that Open Skies actually exists with Colombia is because AA hasn't chosen to start NYC-BOG. Why is AA allowing DL and UA to serve NYC-BOG but AA doesn't?

 

[Kev3188]

any idea where that plane is now?

MHV... MZJ... The beer aisle at Extra...

Who knows?

 

[MAH4546]

actually, I did see that which is why I have only been discussing GRU at this point.

good to know that DL could throw in some more BOG flying if it wanted. Maybe MIA-BOG will be an early market add for DL?

Of course part of the reason why I was surprised that Open Skies actually exists with Colombia is because AA hasn't chosen to start NYC-BOG. Why is AA allowing DL and UA to serve NYC-BOG but AA doesn't?

 
NYC-BOG yields absolutely suck. Why fly a plane between New York and Bogota when the same plane can do Miami-Bogota in half the time and garner a slightly higher fare. It's the same reason JetBlue is now pushing LatAm/Caribbean expansion from Ft. Lauderdale and not New York - half the distance, higher fares. 
 
Delta doesn't have the luxury of being able to serve Bogota from Miami to instant results, although I certainly would like to see Delta try, and if it stuck it out for 2-3 years, it could establish itself in the market. Or it could just give up like it did on Miami-Heathrow, which would have worked had Delta gave it time. 

 

[WorldTraveler]

or they could end up with results like they have on LGA/JFK-MIA or DFW or LAX where they have established themselves as a viable player in a core AA market.
 
If you want to look at int'l routes look at JFK-LHR where DL, as in the domestic examples, is not only continuing to build its share but also getting average fares on par with AA.
 
that is precisely the strategic challenge AA faces.... their route system is built around the largest cities in the US serving many of the largest markets around the world, many of which like GRU and LHR were and still do have access limitations to new entrants.
 
The significance of the merger and the fall of the WA is that AA/US combined are attempting to trade overall size for the loss of market dominance in key markets.  Open Skies in Latin América will bring less dominance for AA in Latin América.... it has happened to the dominant carrier with every other country that the US has signed Open Skies.  AA's position at DCA and DFW will not be as strong as it is now.
And AA has already given up market strength in NYC which they will never recover.
 
The whole notion of the merger is that AA/US will be stronger because of size is completely unproven and in fact looks alot like  UA which has not generated revenue close to what it promised because UA's network is highly competitive and they do not have the market dominance that they once had or that is necessary to control their earnings.  
While AA's costs will be lower than UA's, AA's costs are and will be higher than other carriers which makes them vulnerable.  Higher costs, less revenue control because of more competition... both departures from what has worked for DL, WN, and US as a standalone. 

 

[robbedagain]

wt   i do think w dp runnin the new aa and the way he has kept costs down  id say he will continue
i think the new aa will be able to make things work   i know you are dl king but even wn which has higher costs now is only going to continue  but w the new aa and the airbus and boeings that be comin into the fleet and replacing the older planes   them costs will go down significantly   
as for dca  just bec we are givin up 52 slots at dca   the new aa will still control the airport w 57%  of the flights..... and w the end of the wa  wn will have dal but w 16 gates  vs aa at dfw  i think aa will still win out more in dfw 

 

[MAH4546]

 Open Skies in Latin América will bring less dominance for AA in Latin América.... it has happened to the dominant carrier with every other country that the US has signed Open Skies.  

 
Wow. You won't give up.
 
Latin America already has, for all intents and purposes, open skies. 
 
Or maybe in your imagination it doesn't since Delta still isn't yet dominating Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru despite it's total ability to throw in as much capacity as it would like. 
 
Or maybe the massive failure of Delta's intense expansion into Europe in the mid-2000's, of which over two dozen routes have been discontinued, has taught it to keep to core markets.
 
But keep making up stuff, you're good at it.