Rumor: AA LAX-SEA/PDX June 2014

[WorldTraveler]

occasionally good rumors do show up there, yes.

 

[eolesen]

Hmmm. WT's already had two threads locked in this forum as he went off-topic and bickered with others.

Maybe he's going for a three-peat?...

 

[WorldTraveler]

and what does your post have to do with the thread?

You do realize that Kev posted a response that has nothing to do with the topic at hand?

And you wonder why I rail about selective justice in the settlement agreement... you can't even see it in situations far closer to your day to day activities.

If you practiced what you expected from me it would be a whole lot easier for you to condemn me.

what was that about he who has no sin can cast the first stone?

I presume you have nothing more that is cogent to offer to the west coast buildup discussion?

 

[Kev3188]

Maybe he's going for a three-peat?...

Indeed.

As for MAH's post, this place is looking more & more like A.Net circa 2010 by the day...


 

You do realize that Kev posted a response that has nothing to do with the topic at hand?

I see you're back to trying to use me as some sort of human shield. Fun!

Go back and read the thread, and see what (and who) I responded to. I also quoted it, so it should make for easy work.

 

[MAH4546]

AA does have its strong presence in Latin America and MIA which I know matters a great deal to you. But AA's position in Latin America has come because the markets are not fully open to competition but they will be in the next few years. It is an absolute given that AA will face significant competition to/from Latin America in the next few years.
 

 
Peru is open skies. Colombia is open skies. Central America is open skies. Mexico is limited entry, but no capacity constraints. Argentina is limited entry, but there is an insane amount of unused frequencies available. Brazil is open outside of GRU. 
 
What exactly is a truly closed market to Latin America outside of Venezuela and Sao Paulo? The answer is nothing. DL and UA have attempted - and failed - to make inroads into secondary markets. Delta has even delayed its second daily ATLGRU flight (shocker). 
 
Jetblue has probably been the most successful growing in the market lately and, surprise surprise, it's because it is using South Florida to do it. It is probably the airline that poses the greatest threat to AA in the region, but it's running from a very constrained facility. And so far it's been evident that AA and B6 have been able to successfully co-exist in South Florida-LatAm. Which is great for South Florida to finally have a second domestic carrier build-up into the region again. 
 
The fact remains that AA has ran a very successful operation to the region with a significant amount of competition. The total number of 100 PDEW+ Miami-Latin America markets in which AA has a monopoly is one: Maracaibo. 
 
In NYC, despite being behind UA and DL, American continues to be the market leader in corporate travel contracts. It helps that it runs an operation connecting New York to all major business markets, but it truly helps that AA has continually refused to reduce elite benefits, reduce on board services and devalue mileage like DL and UA continue to do so. Hopefully that doesn't change post-merger, it most certainly can. 
 
It's no wonder the AA upgrade requests list are so large out of Houston, San Francisco and Atlanta these days. If I, as an elite, where treated the way DL and UA have treated their elites the past few years, I'd leave too. 
 
And speaking of Atlanta, it's still missing one hub route on AA, but likely not for long. 

 

[WorldTraveler]

GRU just happens to be the largest market in Latin America.

Colombia is not Open Skies from all cities until 2014.

B6 doesn't fly to deep S. America and doesn't have the premium service that is what drives AA in the region.

AA may have competition in Latin America but it doesn't come from US carriers... AA ran off UA 20 years ago or so and has enjoyed a monopoly from MIA to Latin America among US carriers ever since.

Further, AA is alliance partners with LAN and TAM, the two largest carriers to/from Latin America.

human shield, Kev. Please.

you replied to a one line phrase with a comment that had no connection to the discussion. MAH's comment at least had some connection to the discussion.

Aren't you going to show him your kind southern hospitality and tell him that you are glad he is visiting us here in these parts?

 

[Kev3188]

you replied to a one line phrase with a comment that had no connection to the discussion.

Technically it was a link.

MAH's comment at least had some connection to the discussion.

Indeed.

Which is why I responded to it.

"Exchange of ideas" and all that...

 

[eolesen]

Since WT is picking at nits,

1) TAM is not in oneworld until March 31, 2014.

2) The frequency limitation annex with Colombia expired on December 31, 2012, so Open Skies is indeed in effect uless somehow the State Department forgot to update their own library of documents...

http://www.state.gov/e/eb/rls/othr/ata/c/co/151202.htm

In short, everything MAH wrote was correct, including the comments on elite status. I had the chance to earn a lot of elite status on DL this year, but they lost all of my business over their existing mileage accrual policies, and their even more punitive revenue policy which goes into effect in about 45 days.

None of the revenue spent flying on Skyteam or Star Alliance partners will count towards the elite qualification requirements for 2014. Even if I have 200,000 points worth and/or >$50,000 in revenue flying on Skyteam/Star partners, I still wouldn't qualify for the corresponding elite level unless I also managed to spend close to $12,500 on either UA or DL.

On oneworld, I'll still have my Emerald status without worrying about which carrier I fly. That's the definition of seamless. What UA and DL are doing isn't. I'm told that even in pooled revenue markets, unless the ticket is issued reflecting the US based carrier, you don't get credit. That's not the norm with tickets issued by a corporate agency.

Worse, only the base fare and fees are credited. Taxes aren't, and those make up a pretty hefty percentage of a ticket price these days...

What folks inside both UA and DL are saying is that it will reduce the overall number of top elites, and that's great for the elites, but they're driving those folks over to AA. Perhaps not so great for elites on AA, but for me, it's a negligible effect. I don't maintain status for the upgrades. I do so for the shorter line waits, reduced bureaucracy on requesting changes, and lounge access.

And I've flown premium classes on Avianca, TAM, and LAN. They may be competing in terms of offering flights in the same markets, but they offer nowhere near the same standards of service. It's almost as stark a difference as the services offered by Asian carriers compared to those of the US carriers.

 

[robbedagain]

Josh I would think may be an a319 not sure if an e 175 cld make it but an E190 cld probably make it

 

[robbedagain]

Josh ill take it off topic just a bit... pvd to mia cld be served may be w an e190 or an airbus 319 im not too sure if the 175 can do it nonstop but I wld imagine pvd probably can draw traffic from a large area of canada n new England as for pdx n sea I cld see mia clt phl jfk ord dfw lax flights but im not all too familiar w the geographic areas

 

[robbedagain]

Josh ill take it off topic just a bit... pvd to mia cld be served may be w an e190 or an airbus 319 im not too sure if the 175 can do it nonstop but I wld imagine pvd probably can draw traffic from a large area of canada n new England as for pdx n sea I cld see mia clt phl jfk ord dfw lax flights but im not all too familiar w the geographic areas

 

[Kev3188]

PVDMIA is doable with an E175...

 

[eolesen]

Uh, why would PVD to MIA draw traffic from New England and Canada any more than BDL or BOS-MIA already does?

PVD has already proven it can't support mainline service to a number of hubs, so what has changed? Why not ORH instead of PVD, since it's closer to Canada?...

Better yet, why would there be a draw between SEA/PDX and the other east coast cities mentioned? What's the logical connection between businesses in one place or the other? Shipping? Tourism? Banking?

Not saying that the service couldn't be supported, but you don't launch nonstop service just to connect little dots with big dots on a route map...

 

[silverbird007]

WT WN is in ATL , they are going to squeeze DL in ATL. I predict DL will close the ATL hub next year. There is no way DL can compete! DTW will be the new HQ. DL will probably discontinue all trans Atlantic flights next spring ( due to the US operation) I predict the new Delta will be painted in the old NW livery. DL will be forced into Chapter 11 and change back to Northwest livery and name. I know this is true because a Delta fa told me.

 

[IORFA]

WT WN is in ATL , they are going to squeeze DL in ATL. I predict DL will close the ATL hub next year. There is no way DL can compete! DTW will be the new HQ. DL will probably discontinue all trans Atlantic flights next spring ( due to the US operation) I predict the new Delta will be painted in the old NW livery. DL will be forced into Chapter 11 and change back to Northwest livery and name. I know this is true because a Delta fa told me.

Too funny!