Rumor: AA LAX-SEA/PDX June 2014

[Kev3188]

I took the M/L gate issue to mean in LA. AA has one gate in PDX. They gave back C11 and the port took out the AA branded podium. AA uses it at times. More since ORD came back. No one else uses it. Curiously, Frontier was across the way with one gate and occasionally used the second in OSO situations. They have recently moved to C21. I hope this means that US is going to move to C11 and that the combined might take another gate across the hall if needed. At this point it isn't needed, except for maybe early morning.

Thanks for the update! I didn't know AA had given C9 up...

As for the "no one else uses it" statement, I can remember a time when just getting a gate long enough to offload the people and tow the plane somewhere was a huge challenge!

 

[nycbusdriver]

I'm not seeing the #1 on the East Coast.    New AA will be #2 in BOS, #4 in NYC, #1 in PHL,  #2 or #3 in WAS (BWI/DCA/IAD), #1 in CLT and perhaps #2 in S Florida (PBI/FLL/MIA).   
 
In the Central part of the country,  new AA will be #2 in CHI and #1 at DFW.   New AA is a nobody in every other city in the middle of the country, including  MSP, STL, DTW, IAH, etc.   I'm not sure how that translates into the talking point that new AA is #1 in the Central region.   

 
I'm not sure of how it was measured, but I am simply quoting Scooter Kirby at the Town Hall meeting in PHX last week.  I have to assume Kirby, as President of US Airways, would not say that without the facts to back up the assertion.
 
Aside from that, the US Airways crowd was treated to a presentation over a year ago (and I think the AA employees got to see the same presentation) that also asserted this statistic about the combinged carrier.

 

[WorldTraveler]

All of those size claims might have been true at the time the merger was announced based on then current schedules and market positions, but I have repeatedly cautioned that the rankings were subject to divestitures and to changes by other carriers.

Both of those two pieces are both occurring and have occurred since the merger announcement. It isn't clear at all who will end up with what divested assets or where they will be deployed. Nor is it certain what changes or market success or failures will occur with any carrier by the time the merger closes.

 

[IORFA]

Thanks for the update! I didn't know AA had given C9 up...As for the "no one else uses it" statement, I can remember a time when just getting a gate long enough to offload the people and tow the plane somewhere was a huge challenge!

Kev, AA still uses C9. They gave back C11. They use C11 in the morning for ORD and in OSO. Currently C8 and C10 are vacant as well. Frontier moved way down to C21 or something at the very end. Thus leaving C8,10 and 11 open. I sincerely hope that US is moving soon to C11, with the possibility to use C10 or 12 when needed. I need to ask next time I'm there what the plan is. I also need to ask when they get their AA jobs back. Only a couple stayed to work for Eagle. The rest transferred, retired or took the never ending supply of unemployment. I hope those that want to come back get to really quick.

 

[Kev3188]

Kev, AA still uses C9. They gave back C11.

Oops, sorry 'bout that!

Still hard to imagine PDX with empty gates.

I hope the furloughed AA agents get their jobs back ASAP too!

 

[IORFA]

I think it is weird too. Delta doesn't seem to use their end of D much either and the end of C is empty for the most part except for US, frontier and RON arrivals. Occasionally Alaska will run an early mining RON departure without moving it over. I remember the commotion caused by the C construction. What a mess that was!

 

[Kev3188]

What, you didn't like the "hallways" made of trailers (or whatever they were)?

FWIW, when we (NW) were cleaning out our area under C5 to get ready to move down to the end, we found an old airport newspaper from the previous remodeling ('78ish?) with group photos of each airline that served the field then. Pretty cool. Wish I had held on to it.

 

[MAH4546]

LAXPDX, LAXSEA and LAXAKL have been expected for a while. It wouldn't surprise me, but I think LAXAKL is at least another year away.
 
The start date is expected as 12Jun14. LAXSEA 4x 738 and LAXPDX 4x CR7.
 
I've also heard LAXGEG is coming, so it would not be surprising if it was announced alongside. 
 

I'm not seeing the #1 on the East Coast.    New AA will be #2 in BOS, #4 in NYC, #1 in PHL,  #2 or #3 in WAS (BWI/DCA/IAD), #1 in CLT and perhaps #2 in S Florida (PBI/FLL/MIA).   
 
In the Central part of the country,  new AA will be #2 in CHI and #1 at DFW.   New AA is a nobody in every other city in the middle of the country, including  MSP, STL, DTW, IAH, etc.   I'm not sure how that translates into the talking point that new AA is #1 in the Central region.   

 
It is absolutely number one on the East. The new AA is virtually tied with B6 for largest at BOS and it is #3 in NYC (larger than JetBlue). And why would you say "perhaps #2" in South Florida? Who the hell is larger? AA runs more traffic through MIA than all airlines at FLL and PBI combined. 
 
Also, combined carrier will be the largest O&D carrier in the Chicagoland region. As it stands AA is barely behind UA in Chicago area O&D traffic. 

 

[WorldTraveler]

MAH,
you and no one else really knows the size rankings esp. on the east coast until the divestiture process is completed and you know how other carriers respond.

44 slot pairs worth of flights at DCA flown by mainline aircraft by WN and B6 could represent as much as 50% of the seats that US flies from DCA right now.
new AA is certainly going to upgrade remaining flights but so too are other carriers.

Competitive changes will take place in cities other than just DCA. You have no idea what capacity other carriers will add including DL and UA.

And all of these size claims matter how? Does profitability increase just because a company is larger? Evidence shows that DL is far more profitable than UA even though UA took the world's largest title from DL when UA and CO merged.



And size also can be a detriment. AA/US are being forced to divest such a large amount of assets - by far larger than in any other merger or asset transfer - precisely because AA/US are so large and communicated so much between them about the potential to raise prices and reduce competition.

Hold onto the thought about who is bigger until a little more shakes out... and even then figure out how it really matters in the marketplace.

As for LAXPDX, SEA, and GEG on AA - I say go for it. It puts even more pressure on AS and highlights that AS is the one that is more vulnerable than AA or DL (although other carriers might be even more vulnerable than all 3) and that DL is not the only bad guy and/or that AS is not meeting all of AA's needs.

 

[MAH4546]

MAH,
you and no one else really knows the size rankings esp. on the east coast until the divestiture process is completed and you know how other carriers respond.

44 slot pairs worth of flights at DCA flown by mainline aircraft by WN and B6 could represent as much as 50% of the seats that US flies from DCA right now.
new AA is certainly going to upgrade remaining flights but so too are other carriers.

Competitive changes will take place in cities other than just DCA. You have no idea what capacity other carriers will add including DL and UA.

And all of these size claims matter how? Does profitability increase just because a company is larger? Evidence shows that DL is far more profitable than UA even though UA took the world's largest title from DL when UA and CO merged.



And size also can be a detriment. AA/US are being forced to divest such a large amount of assets - by far larger than in any other merger or asset transfer - precisely because AA/US are so large and communicated so much between them about the potential to raise prices and reduce competition.

Hold onto the thought about who is bigger until a little more shakes out... and even then figure out how it really matters in the marketplace.

As for LAXPDX, SEA, and GEG on AA - I say go for it. It puts even more pressure on AS and highlights that AS is the one that is more vulnerable than AA or DL (although other carriers might be even more vulnerable than all 3) and that DL is not the only bad guy and/or that AS is not meeting all of AA's needs.

You really just have to move on already. The divestitures don't add up to anything significant. AA will be the largest carrier on the east coast. Period. 
 
Does it matter in the marketplace? Size is an important factor, especially in how an airline is able to feed, say, a long-haul factor. I don't think it puts DL or UA at a disadvantage since they are all very large, but it will allow AA to move into markets where it previously could not. 
 
You're the one that cares most about size, though. I just find it funny how you continually went on bragfests regarding Delta's size, and now that it's the smallest network carrier, you shut up about it. I guess size only matters when Delta is the largest. 
 
http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums/general_aviation/print.main?id=4103511
 
From a network perspective the most interesting thing is that the new AA will be hubbed in seven of the eight largest urban areas in the United States - only missing Houston. 
 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_urban_areas

 

[737823]

Any feeling/perspective regarding MHT and PVD possibly being connected to MIA post merger? ORD seems like the most likely AA hub candidate, but an E75 to MIA from PVD would be excellent.

Josh

 

[WorldTraveler]

You really just have to move on already. The divestitures don't add up to anything significant. AA will be the largest carrier on the east coast. Period. 
 
Does it matter in the marketplace? Size is an important factor, especially in how an airline is able to feed, say, a long-haul factor. I don't think it puts DL or UA at a disadvantage since they are all very large, but it will allow AA to move into markets where it previously could not. 
 
You're the one that cares most about size, though. I just find it funny how you continually went on bragfests regarding Delta's size, and now that it's the smallest network carrier, you shut up about it. I guess size only matters when Delta is the largest. 
 
http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums/general_aviation/print.main?id=4103511
 
From a network perspective the most interesting thing is that the new AA will be hubbed in seven of the eight largest urban areas in the United States - only missing Houston. 
 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_urban_areas

my point with size is that you really cannot predict how large AA/US will be. You can add the current networks together but the divestitures are very large whether you want to admit it or not.

Size also mattered a whole lot more because the difference in size between DL post merger and the rest of the industry was a whole lot larger than what AA gains today, even if it retains all of the size difference it has today.

new AA will be at best a couple percent larger than UA and DL... it just isn't terribly significant other than for bragging rights.

There is the potential that over 7500 seats per day could shift between AA/US and the divested carriers... that is several percent of AA/US' combined network.

It is not insignificant.

And it still doesn't change that there are a lot of new markets being added by AA/US competitors esp. in the SE. RDU is seeing a lot of new service including now double daily RDU-LAX on DL next summer and UA is adding SFO-RDU. DL added PHL-RDU just a few months ago and indications are that it is doing very well. Who would have thought that DL could pull off a point to point route like that in a key US market.

RDU is a key market in the backyard of US' CLT hub. It is also divided and wealthy.

There will be more and more competitive adds in AA/US markets. That is just a given. And it is exactly what the DOJ wants to see.


Further, I get the whole idea about being able to compete. I really do. But AA, DL, and UA will all be about the same size. The ability to negotiate corporate contracts and win business will be very similar for each carrier - based largely on their presence in key markets.

And yes AA/US will have hubs in many of the key markets - but AA already does that.

You can look at UA today to see that the best placed hubs don't translate into a revenue advantage for several reasons. First, hubs are designed to CONNECT traffic. There are a whole lot of good reasons why connecting traffic in a highly competitive market is not going to generate the level of profitability that it will in hubs where the carrier has a much higher share of the market.

Second, AA may have hubs in the top markets in the country but they are not #1 in several of them including NYC and CHI. If you think that AA will be #1 in CHI in the local market, go ahead but they will not. The local market has nothing to do with the number of seats a carrier offers in the market but how many seats are bought by customers flying to/from that city. AA and UA have very different shares in the local market, and UA does generate the highest amount of revenue and carry the largest amount of traffic from both ORD and MDW.

Third, there remain a number of major strategic challenges that face AA that no other carriers face including the enormous amount of new capacity that will come online from competitors at DCA and DFW. AA is a distant #3 at NYC and there is no sign that the erosion of revenue in key AA markets is slowing, as much as you hate to hear that.

AA does have its strong presence in Latin America and MIA which I know matters a great deal to you. But AA's position in Latin America has come because the markets are not fully open to competition but they will be in the next few years. It is an absolute given that AA will face significant competition to/from Latin America in the next few years.

OTOH, AA is in better shape in terms of reworking its regional jet fleet than UA and has managed to keep the operation more stable. The chances are real high that AA will not repeat many of the mistakes that have cost UA a lot of business.

UA also has the highest costs in the industry and will likely go up faster than they will for AA/US.

I'm glad to see you posting over here... you are welcome to do so at any time.

 

[Kev3188]

http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums/general_aviation/print.main?id=4103511

Ah memories...

 

[WorldTraveler]

are you over there much these days?

 

[Kev3188]

Sometimes.

You?