Rumor: AA LAX-SEA/PDX June 2014

[WorldTraveler]

yes, I get that ... but you seem to think WN is going anywhere. Even with 150 flights/day on bigger aircraft than FL flew, they are still a major force in ATL and will be.

This notion that ATL will be a one airline town again is not supported by any reality. You might check w/ some of the WN folks but I think they have every intention of maintaining a decent presence in ATL.

DL has large LCC hubs at JFK, ATL, and SLC. I don't think any other carrier has as much direct LCC competition but perhaps you can remind me who might if I have forgotten someone.

 

[AdAstraPerAspera]

DL has large LCC hubs at JFK, ATL, and SLC. I don't think any other carrier has as much direct LCC competition but perhaps you can remind me who might if I have forgotten someone.

 
Wait…who has a large LCC hub at SLC? I know B6 aborted their attempt at ATL flying but that was back in the AirTran days, I think the situation is changing now

 

[Kev3188]

Wait…who has a large LCC hub at SLC?

No one.

 

[WorldTraveler]

WN operates over 10% of the seats at SLC with over 4000 seats/day.

SLC is considered a large hub city by the DOT.

 

[Force Majeure]

DL has large LCC hubs at JFK, ATL, and SLC.

Huh?

"Rumor: AA LAX-SEA/PDX June 2014"

An odd tangent this thread has taken.

 

[Kev3188]

WN operates over 10% of the seats at SLC with over 4000 seats/day.

SLC is considered a large hub city by the DOT.

Those are 2 separate statements.

Is SLC officially a "hub" city for WN?

 

[jimntx]

Now, Kev, be fair.  4000 seats/day is not a once a day milk run.  And, WN doesn't use the term, "hub", but I don't know a better term to describe their operations in PHX, DAL, MCO, BWI, HOU, or other major presence airports.  Do you?  If you have an airport where a number of your a/c converge every day for the convenience of passengers changing planes to go to destinations that can not be reached non-stop, to me that is a hub.  And, it does not imply a hub-and-spoke operation, such as DFW for AA or ATL for DL.  The fact that the plane did not come from PHX to do a turn to TUS, but came from HOU to TUS to PHX to LAX is another issue entirely.
That's the kind of routes that ALL airlines operated when I was a young lad.  Difference:  WN has managed to make breathtaking profits at it most years.

 

[Kev3188]

It's fair to post what I did...
 
I'm sure WT will be along in no time to sort it all out. It'll be all the better if he can juxtapose his previous statements about how WN's growth in SLC has been stifled by DL, and their "uneasy" (my term) coexistence there with this latest contention that SLC is a large LCC "hub" for WN.

 

[700UW]

WN operates over 10% of the seats at SLC with over 4000 seats/day.

SLC is considered a large hub city by the DOT.

Your off topic again.

 

[AdAstraPerAspera]

WT, if you are going to call any Rocky Mountain/western city a WN "hub", "focus city", "significant base of operations," whatever, I would think you would call DEN that before even thinking about SLC. In fact, I think WN has reduced its flying there in recent years.

 

[AdAstraPerAspera]

No one.

 
 

 

[WorldTraveler]

where is the outrage about including ATL in the topic regarding new competition coming?   We left LAX-PDX/SEA (which still hasn't even been announced but maybe the thread will stay active until the route is announced) in the dust a long time ago.
 
The DOT does not classify specific airline hubs as large, médium, or small.  They classify airports as hub cities.  SLC is one of them.
 
WN doesn't use the term hub and spoke but that is exactly what they do.  Some of their "hubs" such as MDW have higher percentages of connecting traffic than other carrier's hubs. 
 
DEN is a larger operation for WN and highlights exactly why they have quit bothering to try to grow SLC in DL's backyard and go to a much more competitive market where they have fought it out with UA and F9 for years.  WN is the largest domestic airline at DEN by local passengers but DEN is below average in profitability compared to other "hubs."
DEN is a difficult market but it is telling that WN would rather battle it out in DEN than try to grow SLC against DL. 
 
They have taken the same approach in other hubs vs. ATL

 

[eolesen]

The reason WN doesn't bother growing in SLC is because O&D (aside from the LDS's business traffic) is pathetic.

Sure, it's a historical transportation hub, but that's out of geographic necessity, serving small, dispersed communities separated by mountains.

Trying to label it as a LCC hub is laughable, and not worth any more discussion.

DEN? The local population is 1M larger than SLC's. Doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out there's more money for WN to make there, and more markets to serve given its more central location, and ability to connect more dots.

 

[WorldTraveler]

Of course DEN is a bigger market but bigger markets don't necessarily mean more profitable.

Yet WN's average fare is 20% higher at SLC than it is at DEN.

I would strongly bet WN's margin at SLC is far higher than it is at DEN.

WN is also the largest domestic carrier at DEN based on local traffic. WN used their profits from their fuel hedge gains 10 years ago to push their way into DEN. They were unsuccessful at growing their presence at SLC; DL is more than 4X larger just in the local domestic market than WN is so WN could have grown significantly larger than they are if they could have picked off traffic from DL - but they couldn't. DL and WN's share has been stable for years.
And if you think the issue is just about SLC, remember that WN made the same decision to take its growth plans away from ATL after you and a lot of people believed WN and FL execs who said how much WN would grow in ATL. Several years after the merger, FL/WN's local market share hasn't grown and the total number of flights is lower than it has been for years.

WN has not had any success in growing its presence in DL hub markets.

 

[MAH4546]

AA has no US carrier competition in MIA-Latin America. Not one single market, Mark.

The closest has been UA's Star relationships but much of that is ending along with Gol's one stop presence in MIA-GRU via SDQ since DL owns part of Gol.

AA has a monopoly between MIA and Latin America among US carriers - the context I have repeatedly stated.

But that US carrier monopoly will be coming to an end and it is starting with B6 from FLL where they will mount a viable alternative to AA at MIA, something NK never really did.

Glad you are looking forward to the competition because it is coming.
DL or UA will add service from MIA to Latin America and they are going to start when AA already will have a million other strategic initiatives and defensive plans underway including trying to pull off a merger that already includes plenty of labor unrest.
And specific to this topic, even if AA does announce more LAX-Pac NW service which will step on AS' key markets, it will help thin the market by pushing on even weaker players and make it possible for DL to accomplish what it wants including for AS to feel even more pressure and face more competition in their key markets.

so when will these new flights be announced?

 
MIA and FLL are the same market. AA already competes with Spirit and JetBlue head-on to Colombia, Peru, the Caribbean and Central America. It also competes with much more difficult Latin American competition with loyal FF bases and far cheaper labor costs. Your attempts to twist the facts don't work. AA doesn't enjoy anything near a monopoly on Miami-LatAm and never has. It faces far more powerful and tougher competition today than Delta or United have ever or likely will ever provide.
 
But, certainly, I welcome the day Delta starts MIAGRU, and hopefully it actually attempts to make the market work, unlike it's absolutely pathetic attempt on MIALHR (which is just as large a market, with higher average fares). And Gol's Miami/Orlando flights right now are performing beyond miserable. 
 
LAX-SEA, LAX-PDX and LAX-GEG should be announced by early January and will begin 14 June 2014. Also in the cards but not locked in are LAX-MCI, LAX-COS, LAX-YYC, LAX-YVR, LAX-ATL and LAX-TUL. AA has a a good amount of room to expand Eagle flying by another 25-30 departures, but mainline growth will remain constrained until the international ops move to TBIT in 2015.