Here are some predictions for you all..........
1. ALPA will not strike because they will be injoined from doing so by the bk judge. They also know they will have all the power in their corner once NW emerges from bk, while in bk ALPA has no power. When this imposed contract is up that will be a totally different story, at that time ALPA will strike and at that time they will hold all the cards and NW will hold none.
2. Sadly, amfa may win this one yet. Things are taking place which show, at least here at dtw, that someone higher up the food chain here is driving the replacements away.
3. Regaurdless of what happens with the replacements amfa will be replaced via card drive and the iam will be in.
4. If the f/a's strike they can simply say goodbye. NW has a complete new group ready to step in and they will be in the same situation as the striking amfa mechs....OUT IN THE COLD.
Your #1 statement is ommitting the fact that if NWA imposes a contract on the pilots that lets them outsource, like Newco, there won't be many pilots left to have leverage when the contract expires out of bankruptcy. The pilots will make the same fatal mistake that AMFA did; they will let themselves be reduced in numbers over time and then if the remaining strike like AMFA did, they will be replaced forever and ALPA at NW will have been busted. There are a lot of pilots flying for the regionals building jet time and they are not all that happy with ALPA. And I wouldn't count on the judge being able to force anyone to work.