MIA-FRA

[jcw]

not only is dawg correct that DL lost money to become #1 from LGA and JFK and in the ENTIRE NYC market but the entire airline lost money as well as to/from Europe. IIRC, DL also did not distinguish between profitably at LGA and JFK but it is quite likely that the problem was JFK, not LGA.

The difference between DL to Europe and AA to Asia is that DL didn't continue to lose money in one region of the money even after the airline overall became profitable which is where AA is right now.

Further, since the topic is about MIA-FRA, it is more relevant to ask what AA is going to do to compete against LH which is not only far stronger from Germany to MIA but also from Germany to all of the destinations in Latin America for which a MIA hub is supposed to help AA.

Given that MIA-MXP proved exactly what I said would happen with JFK-MXP which was that AA weakened its JFK-MXP flight in order to start MIA-MXP, how is AA going to put enough passengers on MIA=FRA without pulling traffic off of other FRA flights which are at the same time seeing decreased loads because of the loss of the Star relationship?

 
Then quite bashing others when these lose money to gain share - you can't praise DL and trash AA for doing the same thing

 

[WorldTraveler]

except DL didn't lose money to gain share. It lost money along with everyone else in a market that was a mess for everyone.

the fact that it was able to turn it around faster than anyone else - DL is the largest carrier across the Atlantic - is proof that DL didn't cut and run when it mattered that they stuck it out.

again, AA is losing money in a region where other carriers are making it in order to still end up as #3.

and that is true in both the Atlantic and Pacific.

the difference in Europe is that AA is trying to find a place to put the capacity that no longer works as part of the Star alliance and in the process is going up against Star alliance carriers that are no more interested in seeing AA grow its presence in other key markets than any other carrier is anywhere else.

AA and US merged without gaining the network benefits that DL or UA gained in their mergers and AA is now trying to fix what it didn't get in a merger and will end up spending far more developing what they didn't have than the supposed benefits of the merger

 

[AdAstraPerAspera]

Holy run-on sentences, batman

 

[eolesen]

As long as you get to a point where you're making money, who cares if you're #2 or #3?...

 

[WorldTraveler]

classic.

esp. since AA is not anywhere close in Asia.

 

[boston]

Apparently there is a rumor floating around that the MIA-FRA flight will be flown by LUS/CLT F/As,has anyone heard anything on this. As it stands now US has scheduled to many A-332,so they will need to cut those. As it stands now there will be no flying each others metal or the other airline setting up bases with in a base. SOC must be complete and that's looks like end of 2016 to 2017. APFA said they will try to get some exceptions in place once a  single contract is achieved and in place.

 

[jcw]

except DL didn't lose money to gain share. It lost money along with everyone else in a market that was a mess for everyone.

the fact that it was able to turn it around faster than anyone else - DL is the largest carrier across the Atlantic - is proof that DL didn't cut and run when it mattered that they stuck it out.

again, AA is losing money in a region where other carriers are making it in order to still end up as #3.

and that is true in both the Atlantic and Pacific.

the difference in Europe is that AA is trying to find a place to put the capacity that no longer works as part of the Star alliance and in the process is going up against Star alliance carriers that are no more interested in seeing AA grow its presence in other key markets than any other carrier is anywhere else.

AA and US merged without gaining the network benefits that DL or UA gained in their mergers and AA is now trying to fix what it didn't get in a merger and will end up spending far more developing what they didn't have than the supposed benefits of the merger

seriously they lost money in NY for years - you can't say everyone else did - and now they are losing money in SEA
 
Once again where is the list of things DL does wrong to complement all the AA bashing you do

 

[WorldTraveler]

in fact, the US airline industry lost money flying the Atlantic from 2008-2012 except for in 2010.

DL lost money in 2010 but became profitable on the Atlantic in 2012 (before the industry) and recorded profits in 2013 that have exceeded its losses in 2008, the first full year since it emerged from BK.

http://www.transtats.bts.gov/Data_Elements_Financial.aspx?Data=6

BTW, 2nd quarter 2014 profitability data is out and AA (PMAA because AA and US still report separately) lost money flying the Pacific and Latin America but made money flying to Europe.

for the second quarter of 2014, DL and UA both were profitable flying the Pacific (DL made almost $90M, UA about $9M while AA lost $50M

The profitability of AA's int'l system is far lower in raw numbers and as a percentage of the domestic system compared to both DL and UA. The domestic system if providing the bulk of AA's profits.


It's probably more significant that AA's Latin America profitability is falling rapidly - likely driven by Argentina and Venezuela

 

[USFlyer]

An SOC is targeted for Q3 of 2015 (July-September 2015), not the end of 2016 or 2017.

 

[jcw]

in fact, the US airline industry lost money flying the Atlantic from 2008-2012 except for in 2010.

DL lost money in 2010 but became profitable on the Atlantic in 2012 (before the industry) and recorded profits in 2013 that have exceeded its losses in 2008, the first full year since it emerged from BK.

http://www.transtats.bts.gov/Data_Elements_Financial.aspx?Data=6

BTW, 2nd quarter 2014 profitability data is out and AA (PMAA because AA and US still report separately) lost money flying the Pacific and Latin America but made money flying to Europe.

for the second quarter of 2014, DL and UA both were profitable flying the Pacific (DL made almost $90M, UA about $9M while AA lost $50M

The profitability of AA's int'l system is far lower in raw numbers and as a percentage of the domestic system compared to both DL and UA. The domestic system if providing the bulk of AA's profits.


It's probably more significant that AA's Latin America profitability is falling rapidly - likely driven by Argentina and Venezuela

 
Once again - what is DL doing wrong
 
How much does DL corporate comm pay you to write this stuff

 

[WorldTraveler]

I could only wish I was paid.

well, DL did lose money flying to Latin America... that is their "developmental region"

they do have a trend of doing better in the 3rd and 4th quarters to Latin America than in the first half of the year.

and since Latin America is DL's smallest region just as the Pacific is AA's, I suppose AA and DL do share that in common.

of course, it also would be a shock if DL made money flying to Latin America in the 2nd quarter give that AA didn't and UA and US did. given that the size of AA's profits in Latin America have been quite large, it spells a significant rearranging of AA's finances if Latin America really is starting to look a whole lot less attractive.

and of course we haven't seen the impact of WN's growth into central America and the Caribbean - where WN is focusing their growth for now - the part of Latin America that seems to be the most profitable right now.

still, the latest DOT data does shed light on why AA is wanting to diversify its network into continental Europe - that is the most profitable part of DL and UA's int'l networks right now.

 

[MAH4546]

 how is AA going to put enough passengers on MIA=FRA without pulling traffic off of other FRA flights which are at the same time seeing decreased loads because of the loss of the Star relationship?

 
AA is not adding capacity to Frankfurt. It is shifting current CLT capacity to MIA. 

 

[eolesen]

How much does DL corporate comm pay you to write this stuff

Trust me, DL Corp Comm would much prefer that he didn't. If he were still an active employee, they would have already applied their social media gag order on him.

 

[FWAAA]

AA is not adding capacity to Frankfurt. It is shifting current CLT capacity to MIA.

I agree, but 700UW has seen the CLT schedule for Summer15 and is certain that FRA will be double daily next year.

I assume that we will eventually see one of them zeroed out and then, on some Sunday morning a few days later, we'll see it removed and we'll see MIA-FRA in its place.

 

[WorldTraveler]

AA is not adding capacity to Frankfurt. It is shifting current CLT capacity to MIA.

 
given that there is a significant portion of the traffic that US carried to FRA via both CLT and PHL that connected onto LH's network, yes, it would be an increase in capacity unless smaller aircraft are used.

given that AA will likely use a 763 from MIA, it would be a decrease in capacity compared to an A330.

It's also worth noting that US is the "backpack airline" from Germany to Florida - and they do not attract premium backpackers but take lots of volume. AA participates in virtually none of that market so there is the possibility that some of that traffic can be shifted via MIA which also helps push down cost per passenger at MIA which would help AA compete to Latin America.

and I doubt very seriously that AA/Us will be operating double daily to any Star hubs any more. that chapter is over.