Is USAirways hostile takeover Of AA for Real?

[signals]

I can't tell exactly what you're saying above, due to the poorly written sentence, but if you're writing that DL's pilot payrates are 25% ahead of AA's pilot payrates, that would be incorrect. If you're saying that UA's pilot payrates are 25% more than AA's rates, that's nonsensical, as AA's rates are higher than UA or CO. Of course, AA's rates are at least 25% more than US rates. DL's rates are more than 25% more than US rates and UA/CO rates are ahead of US rates.

OK we all know WT covers all the bases on the facts and therefore goes in many directions but his bottom-line assesment proves he has a grasp on what is going on.

 

[WorldTraveler]

Yeah that is going to happen

US's track record on mergers leaves even the novice saying, here they go again

as if the creditors don't know THAT either.

OK we all know WT covers all the bases on the facts and therefore goes in many directions but his bottom-line assesment proves he has a grasp on what is going on.

thank you ...and more significantly is capable of thinking thru the strategic implications that everyone else wants to just sweep under the rug.

Does anyone REALLY think that DL and UA went through their mergers before AA so they could sit and wait for AA to turn itself around and merge w/ someone?

Are there people who really don't grasp the strategy sessions that happen in the boardrooms of American companies?


DL's CEO is reported to be talking w/ his pilot leaders.

 

[wings396]

How did your first date go fellas? Finally WT has a true supporter.
Hey WT, did it ever occur to you that the big 25% that you boast over the DL pilots getting could just as easily bite them in the arse? Big money is a great thing in good times, but we all know how easily they come and go in this industry. I have been around long enough to see DL rise and fall a few times. I'm sure that you feel that they are too big for that to happen again.

 

[wings396]

as if the creditors don't know THAT either.




thank you ...and more significantly is capable of thinking thru the strategic implications that everyone else wants to just sweep under the rug.

Does anyone REALLY think that DL and UA went through their mergers before AA so they could sit and wait for AA to turn itself around and merge w/ someone?

Are there people who really don't grasp the strategy sessions that happen in the boardrooms of American companies?


DL's CEO is reported to be talking w/ his pilot leaders.

Without you in the room? That's a big mistake on his part, unless you really are in there little Richard...

 

[gaucho99]

I am not afraid to let the process play out the way it will.
What I object to now, objected to 7 years ago, and will continue to object to is the notion that US can save airlines much larger than itself


58 pages after this thread started with real questions as to the value US could bring to AA, there are still US people who are unwilling to admit that there just might be other options including a standalone AA that are better for AA's longterm interests.

The simple fact is that US is but one of a number of options - and may not even be the first choice of many people, including the creditors and a majority of the employees.


The creditors including the other employee groups will consider all factors - but it was highly premature 9 months ago to believe that US is the best solution for AA - and it still is today - no matter how badly it hurts some people to hear that.

In the event of a merger, US would not be saving AA, it would be a joining of companies where both sides help each other.

I think it is pretty well established there is no better option for AA than a US merger. Even Horton is on board....he just wants to do it on his terms, not US. No other airline has shown an interest in a merger with AA. DL's only hope is to take a piece here or there and AA will not sit by and let that happen.

The creditors will look at all offers but it looks like US is the only offer on the table.... now or in the future.....A standalone AA will be far weaker.

 

[eolesen]

No better option? Sorry, strongly disagree. No better realistic option? Maybe. The best option would be a merger with someone who can actually bring something to the table.

Since Alaska and JetBlue have publicly dismissed AMR's overtures so far, it's unlikely they'd change their mind now that AMR's labor situation appears to be in check.

I still wouldn't rule out the guys on Denton Drive as being a better option.

Personally, and quite biased, I think AMR could accomplish far more thru organic growth than they would via a merger, but people have been beating the merger drums so loudly it's just not cool to think of other options right now.

 

[FA Mikey]

I have to agree. The merger mongers carry on one that being bigger is better. Yet they cannot add or really show how usair adds value to AA.

With TPG, IAG as well as other more strategic carriers who may say no now, but faced with a usair looking at them next may think better of being gobbled in to that mess.

 

[Bob Owens]

I have to agree. The merger mongers carry on one that being bigger is better. Yet they cannot add or really show how usair adds value to AA.

With TPG, IAG as well as other more strategic carriers who may say no now, but faced with a usair looking at them next may think better of being gobbled in to that mess.

We met with USAIRWAYS managment earlier this month. Parker wasn't there but the COO was. Not impressed. They bragged about the synergies produced when they merged with America West, however when I ask how much of the savings went back to the workers we got a long winded non-answer, finally I cut in and asked "How much, $400 million, $50 million, Zero?" The tap dance continued so I told him, "I got my answer-ZERO. Why should we expect anything different from a USAIR -AA merger?"

If there was any carrier I would choose to NOT merge with its USAIRWAYS. Near or at bottom of the industry wages across the board, for Maint, at number 2 from the bottom (we hold the honor of being number 1) they are closer to us than they are to number three from the bottom UAL. Do we really want the largest carrier in the country to be an amalgamation of the two worst paying carriers in the industry? Dont people realize that this will put the rest of the workers in this industry back into concessionary bargaining? UAL and SWA will both be negotaiting deals by the time these contracts are settled, those companies will probably secretly rush for a release and hope for a PEB, because the PEB will look at the deals at AA and try and push them on those workers. How can the Union argue when the biggest carrier out there pays much less? We have destroyed our profession, the pilots still have hope.

 

[Bob Owens]

I can't tell exactly what you're saying above, due to the poorly written sentence, but if you're writing that DL's pilot payrates are 25% ahead of AA's pilot payrates, that would be incorrect. If you're saying that UA's pilot payrates are 25% more than AA's rates, that's nonsensical, as AA's rates are higher than UA or CO. Of course, AA's rates are at least 25% more than US rates. DL's rates are more than 25% more than US rates and UA/CO rates are ahead of US rates.

You need to speak to Overspeed, he's been claiming the same thing.

 

[Bob Owens]

In the event of a merger, US would not be saving AA, it would be a joining of companies where both sides help each other.

I think it is pretty well established there is no better option for AA than a US merger. Even Horton is on board....he just wants to do it on his terms, not US. No other airline has shown an interest in a merger with AA. DL's only hope is to take a piece here or there and AA will not sit by and let that happen.

The creditors will look at all offers but it looks like US is the only offer on the table.... now or in the future.....A standalone AA will be far weaker.

I think you may be right about our creditors Committee looking favorably on a US-AA merger. Look at who they are, Boeing, banks, etc. Chances are they have a stake in every airline and creating a mega low wage carrier would put more downward pressure on wages across the industry. With lower wages across the industry that leaves more money available to buy more airplanes and the banks can skim off even more for themselves.

 

[Mach85ER]

Personally, and quite biased, I think AMR could accomplish far more thru organic growth than they would via a merger, but people have been beating the merger drums so loudly it's just not cool to think of other options right now.

E,

I wish it were true also, but it's not going to happen. Do you think DAl/UAL and others are going to stand by and watch AA grow organically? Do you think AA is going to be a success with a pissed off workforce in winning over customers? I think it might have a slim chance with the right leadership and a motivated workforce, but with cheesy press conferences over things like seats two years from now, not likely. plently of pilots have also heard the "dear leader" expound on his vision over the last 6 months. Few have been impressed.

I can understand your support if you're in the business of stocking narrow body engine parts. With 2 models and 7 different sub types, the parts business should be good selling to AA. Great simplification plan. I'd love to see organic growth. I just don't see the piles of money around to support it for the years it will take to reach a critical mass even without a competitive response.

IMHO, the stand alone plan is just a BS story to divert the attention from a IAG supported aquisition plan anyways.
Anyone seen Willie lately?

 

[Bob Owens]

E,

I wish it were true also, but it's not going to happen. Do you think DAl/UAL and others are going to stand by and watch AA grow organically? Do you think AA is going to be a success with a pissed off workforce in winning over customers? I think it might have a slim chance with the right leadership and a motivated workforce, but with cheesy press conferences over things like seats two years from now, not likely. plently of pilots have also heard the "dear leader" expound on his vision over the last 6 months. Few have been impressed.

I can understand your support if you're in the business of stocking narrow body engine parts. With 2 models and 7 different sub types, the parts business should be good selling to AA. Great simplification plan. I'd love to see organic growth. I just don't see the piles of money around to support it for the years it will take to reach a critical mass even without a competitive response.

IMHO, the stand alone plan is just a BS story to divert the attention from a IAG supported aquisition plan anyways.
Anyone seen Willie lately?

Another one of the things that US Management was bragging about is how their old (average age 55) mechanics work force has really bought into the 'Its fun to work for less" philosophy at US and how their maintenance numbers have improved. in reply I was focusing on the fact that their fleet was getting newer, you bring up a good point, in addition to getting newer its getting simpler. Both of these things drive down costs and increase reliability. Its easier to be proficient on fewer fleet types.

I agree that some sort of a merger is likely to happen, but I dont think we should embrace it, because it wont be for our benefit.

 

[eolesen]

I wish it were true also, but it's not going to happen. Do you think DAl/UAL and others are going to stand by and watch AA grow organically? Do you think AA is going to be a success with a pissed off workforce in winning over customers? I think it might have a slim chance with the right leadership and a motivated workforce, but with cheesy press conferences over things like seats two years from now, not likely. plently of pilots have also heard the "dear leader" expound on his vision over the last 6 months. Few have been impressed.

I'm of the opinion there's a point of diminishing returns when you get to the size that DL and UA are. We saw it with the post-TW AA -- a combined fleet of 900 airplanes, and it was pretty hard to keep the wheels on the bus. UA is still having integration issues, and they're losing customers over their performance (they're running up to double digits behind AA and DL at the same airports).

I'm also a skeptic with regard to the pilot agreements that UA and DL just worked out. They gave up a little in terms of productivity and scope, but I'm still not convinced that it will be sustainable.

All it takes is for a couple of dominos to fall which are outside of the industry's control (e.g. fuel prices, Egypt/Iran, the Eurozone, a second term for Obama), and the wheels could start to fall off pretty quickly.

So... do I think that DL or UA will tolerate AA growing organically? Maybe it's time to take WN's approach --- stop worrying about what the top couple of carriers are doing, and just focus on running a good airline.

Sure, there will be a few pissed off employees -- there's no way around that, even at the so-called happy carriers.

The new airplanes and seats?....

The first 773 shows up in about 90 days. The A320's arrive in 2013, which is anywhere from five to 15 months away. Not exactly an eternity, and training can't be too far away.

You'll always have some malcontents. But once pilots start seeing movement as the guys approaching 65 start leaving, and the resulting upgrades, I suspect attitudes will change a bit. Likewise for those flight attendants who move up the list. And should AA wind up posting some profits post-restructuring, getting a few profit sharing checks tends to turn attitudes a bit more for the better.

 

[Bob Owens]

You'll always have some malcontents. But once pilots start seeing movement as the guys approaching 65 start leaving, and the resulting upgrades, I suspect attitudes will change a bit. Likewise for those flight attendants who move up the list. And should AA wind up posting some profits post-restructuring, getting a few profit sharing checks tends to turn attitudes a bit more for the better.

If they leave the gate. New planes cut down on OH costs but also incurr a learning curve on the line. Remember they dont get the plane till we give them the book.

 

[PITbull]

There is a difference between a chat forum and a short story. Maybe if you weren't so arrogant with most of your postings, you wouldn't get defamed so often. I have been on here just as long as you, and can only recall ONE other member coming to you aide. That alone should send you a pretty strong message in itself.

Well pal, you can count me in as another one!

He's about the only poster on this topic that makes any sense and obviously isn't looking for a "savior" like the many of you who blindly go down that salvation path many times over, for quite a few years now.