Here's my take on it. This newest blow is news to us, but don't think it hasn't been in the works for months within the company. They would not have recalled so many FA's if they didn't think they'd need them.
Attrition for Sept was 91, and I and many others expect it to remain high for months to come, although I myself don't see huge numbers leaving. That alone means by the end of the year some 270 more FA's will have thrown in the towel. And it will continue after that. Even if the company finds itself with a slight excess of FA's in the beginning months of 2005, they can easily manage the small numbers by granting bid leaves and mini-leaves. By the end of May it's likely some 350-400 more FA's will have left.
And look at the situation on International. AA has announced the resumption of DFW-KIX service daily, and ORD-NGO. Those two flights alone should generate the need for at least 250 additional bodies, counting reserves. I expect more and more emphasis on International in the future, where yields are high and there is no low cost competition.
I see myself as a realist, not an optimist. And I just don't see furloughs in the near future. In fact, I'd be willing to bet that by summer or early fall there will be TWA FA's back on the property.
MK
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