Equity

[MetalMover]

Excellent point, and I agree.   
 
LCC stock price has increased from about $16.50/sh to about $23.00/sh since Labor Day, and I think that huge run-up accounts for the difference in estimates.   And of course, I'm assuming that the stock price of new AA doesn't tank next Monday when the merger closes.    No doubt a very wise decision to count on not much and then be pleasantly surprised if the total works out to be much larger than the estimates.   
 
My back of the envelope math puts the TWU's 4.8% at a current value of about $550 million.   If I remember correctly, the TWU had such a complex formula that I gave up last time I tried to ballpark what the mechanics might expect.   A simple average amount (assuming 24,000 TWU-represented employees, which may be high, given that the TWU was going to give early outs nothing) would be about $23,000 per person.   

Using the calculation given to us, The $23000 number is actually pretty close using the $23 share price.

 

[jimntx]

That lines up reasonably closely with my math.    I assumed that jimntx was joking about the 12 shares.
 

I wish I had been joking.  I went back and re-read the letter.  It says that based on an assumed share price and my earnings, I will get 12 shares.  I hope you and IORFA are correct, but that's what the letter says.
 
And, no.  I do not fly low time.  I don't fly high time, but I fly my line.

 

[Overspeed]

APA https://public.alliedpilots.org/apa/AboutAPA/APAPublicNews/tabid/843/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/3707/Equity-Distribution-Mechanics-and-Scenarios.aspx

APFA http://www.apfaequity.creditorinfo.com/utility/GetFile/5b228fdd-7104-4dcd-8eca-48cbe75f9a78

TWU http://www.twulocal568.org/docs/TWU%20Equity%20Distribution%20Plan%20Draft%20Station%20Visits.pptx.pdf

 
What? How do I get a negative vote for posting links to the formulas? Ouch!

 

[IORFA]

What? How do I get a negative vote for posting links to the formulas? Ouch!

Does that help?

 

[AANOTOK]

APA https://public.alliedpilots.org/apa/AboutAPA/APAPublicNews/tabid/843/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/3707/Equity-Distribution-Mechanics-and-Scenarios.aspx

APFA http://www.apfaequity.creditorinfo.com/utility/GetFile/5b228fdd-7104-4dcd-8eca-48cbe75f9a78

TWU http://www.twulocal568.org/docs/TWU%20Equity%20Distribution%20Plan%20Draft%20Station%20Visits.pptx.pdf

Thanks Overspeed!

 

[Overspeed]

Does that help?

 
I feel better now. Thanks

 

[TWU informer]

 
What? How do I get a negative vote for posting links to the formulas? Ouch!

It is simply a number. Why worry about it?
Just be yourself, stand your ground, and keep trying to convey your opinions. In this country, we are all free to have our opinions. Some might be put in bad standing for a few years, denied the right to run for office, or even treated like a bad apple, but even they are still entitled to their opinions.

 

[1AA]

 
What? How do I get a negative vote for posting links to the formulas? Ouch!

It's your reputation. Your postings have become synonymous with negativity.
Sorry you had to ask.

 

[jimntx]

Just talked with a friend who retired at the end of August.  As she was working full-time during the base period for getting an equity position in the new company, she also received a letter from the union regarding her estimated share of the proceeds.  She was informed that she will get 10 shares.

 

[jimntx]

Correction:  The letter that I thought was from the union was from BMC--the company that the union hired to handle the distribution.  A clarification email was sent out overnight that states that the number of total shares to be received by APFA members (and used by BMC to do the calculation) was only a hypothetical number--200,000 shares total.  That may have been in the original letter, but I didn't see it, and I threw it away yesterday or the day before.  That would explain the 12 share calculation.

 

[Bloodhound]

Just talked with a friend who retired at the end of August.  As she was working full-time during the base period for getting an equity position in the new company, she also received a letter from the union regarding her estimated share of the proceeds.  She was informed that she will get 10 shares.

Is your bidding buddy on the line a girl named Chris???

 

[NYer]

Excellent point, and I agree.   
 
LCC stock price has increased from about $16.50/sh to about $23.00/sh since Labor Day, and I think that huge run-up accounts for the difference in estimates.   And of course, I'm assuming that the stock price of new AA doesn't tank next Monday when the merger closes.    No doubt a very wise decision to count on not much and then be pleasantly surprised if the total works out to be much larger than the estimates.   
 
My back of the envelope math puts the TWU's 4.8% at a current value of about $550 million.   If I remember correctly, the TWU had such a complex formula that I gave up last time I tried to ballpark what the mechanics might expect.   A simple average amount (assuming 24,000 TWU-represented employees, which may be high, given that the TWU was going to give early outs nothing) would be about $23,000 per person.   

 
There is no way to know the amount of stock anyone is receiving until the end. There are too many variables to accurately predict even an estimate. The pool of available stock can change depending on the value of each share either going up or coming down. Without knowing the prices of the stock or the total amount of shares available to the creditors, it can't be predicted.

 

[FWAAA]

 
There is no way to know the amount of stock anyone is receiving until the end. There are too many variables to accurately predict even an estimate. The pool of available stock can change depending on the value of each share either going up or coming down. Without knowing the prices of the stock or the total amount of shares available to the creditors, it can't be predicted.

I beg to differ.    While it's true that we don't know precisely how many shares each employee will get, there are a lot of numbers to which we already have the answer.   
 
Currently, there are about 197 million shares of LCC (US Airways) outstanding.   Each of those shares will be cancelled and replaced by one share of new AA on Monday.   LCC closed today at about $22.55/sh
 
New AA will issue about 507 million additional shares of new stock.   We already know that the APA pilots will get 13.5% of that, or about 68 million shares.   At today's price, the APA will split about $1.5 billion.    We know that the APFA will get 3% of that new stock, or about 15.2 million shares, worth an estimated $343 million.    We know that the TWU will get 4,8% of that new stock, or about 24.3 million shares, worth an estimated $550 million.   The agents, support staff and management (lower-level management that isn't getting big chunks of stock) will split 2.3% of that new stock, worth probably about $263 million or so.
 
The unsecured creditors will get much of the remaining stock, and, last, the current shareholders of old AAMRQ will divide up what's left.    Some analysts are estimating that the holders of old AAMRQ might end up getting $5 billion or so worth of new AA stock.   How much they ultimately get is really up in the air.    

 

[AANOTOK]

And when their little road show was making it's rounds, the TWU was using $14 a share as a tool and was able to narrow it down fairly close. Now that it will be closer to $23 a share (last 60 day average), I don't see what has changed in the formula other than an increase. I have heard a rumor (right or wrong) that our shares were capped at $15 and any additional equity would be given to the current stockholders to divide.

 

[Bob Owens]

 I have heard a rumor (right or wrong) that our shares were capped at $15 and any additional equity would be given to the current stockholders to divide.

Wrong
 
IIRC when we got our 433 shares in 2003 the stock would have had to go to over $300/share for us to break even, that was based on being restored in 2008, now we wont even be fully restored in 2018. So even if it adds up to $30,000, that's less than 10% of what we gave up. Wont even buy the Retiree Medical we lost. Yes I'll take the money, why wouldn't I? But I'm still missing at least 9 bucks for every buck I get.