Equity

Ok but what does that mean for us any idea how many shares I'll get or the projected stock price Monday
 
According to the letter I got from the APFA, my allotment from the shares designated for APFA will be 12 shares.  At last, Mother can have that operation!
 
jimntx said:
According to the letter I got from the APFA, my allotment from the shares designated for APFA will be 12 shares.  At last, Mother can have that operation!
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You actually get correspondence from your representative?? I mean other than trying to sell you some insurance.
 
jimntx said:
According to the letter I got from the APFA, my allotment from the shares designated for APFA will be 12 shares.  At last, Mother can have that operation!
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My math is probably wrong, but with AA's numbers the AVERAGE for the FA's should be a little over 1000 shares each. With that, that ASSUMES that everyone gets the same, which is NOT the method used. It is earnings based. Also, there is the caveat that no group gets more than they were disadvantaged. So, the total could be way less over the 120 day period. I would guess that it is around 650-750 shares on AVERAGE for the FA's. Again, it ALL depends on the share price. The higher it goes, the less we receive. That is my impression of the process. Either way, you are going to get way more than 12 shares. The union keeps saying 10-12K each on AVERAGE.
 
IORFA said:
My math is probably wrong, but with AA's numbers the AVERAGE for the FA's should be a little over 1000 shares each. With that, that ASSUMES that everyone gets the same, which is NOT the method used. It is earnings based. Also, there is the caveat that no group gets more than they were disadvantaged. So, the total could be way less over the 120 day period. I would guess that it is around 650-750 shares on AVERAGE for the FA's. Again, it ALL depends on the share price. The higher it goes, the less we receive. That is my impression of the process. Either way, you are going to get way more than 12 shares. The union keeps saying 10-12K each on AVERAGE.
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That lines up reasonably closely with my math.    I assumed that jimntx was joking about the 12 shares.
 
IIRC, the APFA would receive 3% of the new equity.  At the current share price, that would be about $350 million worth of new stock, to be divided among the ~15,000 APFA members, or an average of about $23,000 each.   IIRC, W-2 earnings are the big factor in allocating the stock, so the more you flew in the relevant time frame, the more you'll get.   
 
FWAAA, since you know more than the TWU, (seriously) how does it break down for their members. I don't believe it is based on W-2 earnings (someone correct me if I'm wrong) in our formula. Thanks!
 
FWAAA said:
That lines up reasonably closely with my math.    I assumed that jimntx was joking about the 12 shares.
 
IIRC, the APFA would receive 3% of the new equity.  At the current share price, that would be about $350 million worth of new stock, to be divided among the ~15,000 APFA members, or an average of about $23,000 each.   IIRC, W-2 earnings are the big factor in allocating the stock, so the more you flew in the relevant time frame, the more you'll get.
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I'm not sure he was joking. People are starting to get their letter and they all think they are getting 12-16 shares. I haven't received mine yet, so not sure how they all got so confused. I think they used some sort of example and tried to make it simple and at the same time people don't read the word EXAMPLE. Back to the numbers, I rounded down to 544million total shares for AA constituents. I also used 16,000 FA's. So my numbers might be a little low. Plus it is all a crapshoot, if the share price remains high, the payouts every 30 days will be low to nill. Thus the whole amount will be less and current shareholders will get more. The union is telling people, if you listen, that the first payout next week will be like 45-55% of the total and that we most likely will get nothing more till the last payout on day 120. Im trying to temper my expectations. I would love 23K, but the union has always been in the 10-17K range and mostly around the 10-12K range. I'm sure they are shooting low and hoping for more as well. This way there isn't too many upset people out there. And yes, it is 3% for the APFA.
 
Kev3188 said:
Nothing wrong with under promising and over delivering!  
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Excellent point, and I agree.   
 
IORFA said:
I'm not sure he was joking. People are starting to get their letter and they all think they are getting 12-16 shares. I haven't received mine yet, so not sure how they all got so confused. I think they used some sort of example and tried to make it simple and at the same time people don't read the word EXAMPLE. Back to the numbers, I rounded down to 544million total shares for AA constituents. I also used 16,000 FA's. So my numbers might be a little low. Plus it is all a crapshoot, if the share price remains high, the payouts every 30 days will be low to nill. Thus the whole amount will be less and current shareholders will get more. The union is telling people, if you listen, that the first payout next week will be like 45-55% of the total and that we most likely will get nothing more till the last payout on day 120. Im trying to temper my expectations. I would love 23K, but the union has always been in the 10-17K range and mostly around the 10-12K range. I'm sure they are shooting low and hoping for more as well. This way there isn't too many upset people out there. And yes, it is 3% for the APFA.
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LCC stock price has increased from about $16.50/sh to about $23.00/sh since Labor Day, and I think that huge run-up accounts for the difference in estimates.   And of course, I'm assuming that the stock price of new AA doesn't tank next Monday when the merger closes.    No doubt a very wise decision to count on not much and then be pleasantly surprised if the total works out to be much larger than the estimates.   
 
AANOTOK said:
FWAAA, since you know more than the TWU, (seriously) how does it break down for their members. I don't believe it is based on W-2 earnings (someone correct me if I'm wrong) in our formula. Thanks!
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My back of the envelope math puts the TWU's 4.8% at a current value of about $550 million.   If I remember correctly, the TWU had such a complex formula that I gave up last time I tried to ballpark what the mechanics might expect.   A simple average amount (assuming 24,000 TWU-represented employees, which may be high, given that the TWU was going to give early outs nothing) would be about $23,000 per person.   
 
FWAAA said:
Excellent point, and I agree.   
 

LCC stock price has increased from about $16.50/sh to about $23.00/sh since Labor Day, and I think that huge run-up accounts for the difference in estimates.   And of course, I'm assuming that the stock price of new AA doesn't tank next Monday when the merger closes.    No doubt a very wise decision to count on not much and then be pleasantly surprised if the total works out to be much larger than the estimates.   
 

My back of the envelope math puts the TWU's 4.8% at a current value of about $550 million.   If I remember correctly, the TWU had such a complex formula that I gave up last time I tried to ballpark what the mechanics might expect.   A simple average amount (assuming 24,000 TWU-represented employees, which may be high, given that the TWU was going to give early outs nothing) would be about $23,000 per person.
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At the meetings the ATD showed an example that matches your number approximately. Understand TUL gets a bit more for resolution of the outsourcing grievance.
 
 
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