Delta to keep SEA-HND (with conditions)

[Glenn Quagmire]

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Docket IDOT-OST-2010-0018
Abstract:The Department tentatively determines that Delta Air Lines, Inc. (Delta) should retain the U.S.-Haneda slot pair currently allocated to it for daily scheduled combination services between Seattle, Washington, and Tokyo’s Haneda Airport, subject to certain strengthened conditions and protective measures designed to ensure that Delta maintains a year-round daily service in the market. The Department also tentatively selects American Airlines, Inc. (American) for backup authority for its proposed Los Angeles-Haneda services should Delta not meet the additional conditions and requirements tentatively attached to this slot pair authority. Objections due no later than April 6, 2015; answers shall be filed no later than April 13, 2015.
Document Type:Other
Document Subtype:Order
Statusosted
Received Date:Mar 27, 2015
Author/ Document Date:Mar 27, 2015
Comment Start Date:Mar 27, 2015
Implementation/ Service Date:Mar 27, 2015
Answer Date:April 6, 2015
Page Count:11
OK

AA can still file objections if they wish.

http://www.regulations.gov/#!documentDetail;D=DOT-OST-2010-0018-0426

 

[WorldTraveler]

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More Document Details
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Docket IDOT-OST-2010-0018
Abstract:The Department tentatively determines that Delta Air Lines, Inc. (Delta) should retain the U.S.-Haneda slot pair currently allocated to it for daily scheduled combination services between Seattle, Washington, and Tokyo’s Haneda Airport, subject to certain strengthened conditions and protective measures designed to ensure that Delta maintains a year-round daily service in the market. The Department also tentatively selects American Airlines, Inc. (American) for backup authority for its proposed Los Angeles-Haneda services should Delta not meet the additional conditions and requirements tentatively attached to this slot pair authority. Objections due no later than April 6, 2015; answers shall be filed no later than April 13, 2015.
Document Type:Other
Document Subtype:Order
Statusosted
Received Date:Mar 27, 2015
Author/ Document Date:Mar 27, 2015
Comment Start Date:Mar 27, 2015
Implementation/ Service Date:Mar 27, 2015
Answer Date:April 6, 2015
Page Count:11
OK

AA can still file objections if they wish.

http://www.regulations.gov/#!documentDetail;D=DOT-OST-2010-0018-0426

it is a tentative decision, so, yes, ANYONE can make their case but is highly unlikely that any party is going to tell the DOT something they didn't already know when they made their tentative decision.

No party to this proceeding has persuasively demonstrated that the above-listed Seattle-related attributes and public benefits that were central to the Department’s previous selection of a carrier to provide Seattle-Haneda service were unsupported on the record. On the contrary, the Department tentatively believes each public interest element cited in justification of its previous decision to favor a Seattle-Haneda selection was valid then, and is still valid on the current record.21 Furthermore, the Los Angeles and Kona gateways that are before the Department now were also before the Department in the previous proceeding, and with the same respective carriers. In reviewing the current record and considering the competing proposals of American and Hawaiian to provide replacement U.S.-Haneda service, the Department tentatively does not find that the relative attributes of those competing gateway/carrier proposals are sufficiently compelling to now outweigh the public benefits of daily Seattle-Haneda service.

the text regarding operations says

"Responsibility for seeking a timely waiver from the proposed condition above will rest with Delta. This means that, except when emergency circumstances outside of Delta’s control make it impossible, Delta must seek a waiver with sufficient lead time to allow for service of the request on interested parties, an opportunity for interested parties to respond, and an opportunity for a reasoned decision on the part of the Department. Furthermore, in the event of any repeated pattern of non-performance, or of waiver requests seeking to justify non-performance, the Department expressly reserves the right, on its own initiative and without hearing, to activate the backup award, or, in the event that the backup carrier fails to inaugurate service, or its authority has lapsed, to reallocate the slot opportunity."

further, given the extraordinarily high level of operational reliability that DL has on its system, the chances are very small that DL will even face the issue that FWAAA seems to think will be a threat to the route.

 

[eolesen]

Glenn, it's rare that a decision gets overturned, but not impossible. Last time, it was the White House who intervened. Maybe Hawaiian has a shot, given that's where Obama spends most of his free time and will likely live post-Presidency.

Looks to me like the government just told DL that SEA-HND (and vv) is a must-fly route which means that DL will have to keep a spare plane at SEA each day until the HND flight has departed, or else risk a maintenance-related cancellation (which would subject DL to enforcement action). The practical effect is that DL will be forced to cancel one of the other SEA-Asia flights if the SEA-HND plane is broken. Either that or keep a spare plane in SEA. I don't recall the government ever requiring a 100% completion factor in any other route case.

I think you're right about the practical effects, and while I'd like to believe DOT wouldn't be that rigid as to require a 100% completion factor for things like a weather or mechanical cancellation, I don't see DL taking any chances.

Maybe if HND closes for a typhoon or SEA closes for something like the ice storm a few years back, but since DL was so insistent on following the letter of the law with the DOT, the risk is that DOT will follow the letter of the law in return with DL, and right now, there's no exceptions for a mechanical or other carrier controllable situation.

I'd also bet that there will be someone in HDQ1 at AA tasked with tracking DL's dispatch reliability for the flight on a daily or weekly basis. They have nothing to lose by tattling if DL does slip up.

 

[WorldTraveler]

and I will bet that DL has someone's cell phone at the DOT and the DOT has a priority number at DL's Operations Control Center.


DL knows what it needs to do to keep the award.

It is precisely because DL knew what it had to do before and did it that they still have the authority.

It's amazing the effort that some people are going to convince themselves that DL doesn't know what it has to do.

 

[topDawg]

I'm not sure which is better, the Yale grand posting in a thread right before it gets locked but some how becoming an expert on colleges in the US (which is too funny, I thought Yale grads were smart.....clearly not the case here) or all the AA fan boys that were SURE AA was getting the route. 
 
But hey, LDV and MAH are rarely right, no need to start now. 

Sorry Baboo, only a DL chest-thumper could define something that will cost DL a lot of money in the off season as a victory.

By eliminating the dormancy provisions, DOT has singled out DL's behavior. No other airline is subject to that, even at HND.

That's not a victory. It's probation.

I bet that isn't the case, let anyone do the same thing with the HND route and I bet Delta jumps in just like AA did. 
 
Matter of fact, If i were Delta anytime AA ever operated a route that is an non-openskies (china for example) less than the frequency they were award, I would ask the DOT for those frequencies. 
 
AA just begged the DOT to go full on stupid here, can't wait to see it jump up and bite them in the ass. 
 

Looks to me like the government just told DL that SEA-HND (and vv) is a must-fly route which means that DL will have to keep a spare plane at SEA each day until the HND flight has departed, or else risk a maintenance-related cancellation (which would subject DL to enforcement action). The practical effect is that DL will be forced to cancel one of the other SEA-Asia flights if the SEA-HND plane is broken. Either that or keep a spare plane in SEA. I don't recall the government ever requiring a 100% completion factor in any other route case.

that wont happen. DOT isn't taking the route in a case like that. WX, Acts of God etc happen. 

 

[eolesen]

that wont happen. DOT isn't taking the route in a case like that. WX, Acts of God etc happen.

True, but if DL has internal issues and the HND flight starts getting whacked, they'll pounce.

It's not a very likely situation, and I don't think DL is dumb enough to test those waters, which goes back to FWAAA's comment about practical outcomes:

If HND takes a mechanical or crew delay, and is only booked to a 30% LF, DL's hand is forced to consider whacking ICN or NRT instead, even if booked at a 90% LF (I don't see which other markets are operated with a 763 and won't waste my Sunday looking). Or, they put a hot spare into SEA.

 

[WorldTraveler]

DL has THE BEST operational reliability of any US carrier right now.

If the DOT finds problems with DL's operation of SEA-HND then you can be assured that other airlines will be in a world of hurt because operational reliability isn't necessary just for routes to HND.

DOT's airline consumer reports which include OT and cancellation rates can be found here.

 

[FrugalFlyerv2.0]

Looks to me like the government just told DL that SEA-HND (and vv) is a must-fly route which means that DL will have to keep a spare plane at SEA each day until the HND flight has departed, or else risk a maintenance-related cancellation (which would subject DL to enforcement action). The practical effect is that DL will be forced to cancel one of the other SEA-Asia flights if the SEA-HND plane is broken. Either that or keep a spare plane in SEA. I don't recall the government ever requiring a 100% completion factor in any other route case.

 
Some people call that 'winning'.

 

[WorldTraveler]

..or perhaps DL just has been told explicitly what the government's requirements are and can follow them in comparison. If DL had to keep a hot spare at SEA, then I am quite sure the economics would not work.

 

[topDawg]

True, but if DL has internal issues and the HND flight starts getting whacked, they'll pounce.

It's not a very likely situation, and I don't think DL is dumb enough to test those waters, which goes back to FWAAA's comment about practical outcomes:

If HND takes a mechanical or crew delay, and is only booked to a 30% LF, DL's hand is forced to consider whacking ICN or NRT instead, even if booked at a 90% LF (I don't see which other markets are operated with a 763 and won't waste my Sunday looking). Or, they put a hot spare into SEA.

I will promise that isn't the case. If the flight literally has zero people booked on it and takes a mechanical or a WX cancellation the DOT isn't pulling the route from Delta. Basically, as long as the the route stays scheduled then everything is okay. Ad Hoc events happen and the DOT knows this. (Delta will have to tell the DOT why the flight didn't operate however)  
 
Or at least that is what Delta has been told. Had what you said been true Delta wouldn't have accepted the ruling. 
 
Plus I don't believe the DOT wants to go down that road. It promotes very unsafe conditions and I don't believe they have the power to do so. I don't believe any judge in this world would back the DOT in that case...... 

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

I agree dawg. So long as Delta makes a good faith effort to operate the route, daily, they will be fine.

Delta created a bad situation for themselves by trying push the edges. Now they are forced to operate it even if it becomes a loser, or scale back a winner to keep this one.

They played coy and got tagged.

 

[WorldTraveler]

DL played by the rules which were full of wholes.

The DOT knew it which is why they weren't going to pull the route because the rules allowed DL to do what it did.

DL got to operate the route on a seasonal basis; now they have to fly it on a daily basis.

Lower fuel prices and a whole lot more DL controlled feed will change the economics.

It's also worth noting that DL's average fare on SEA-HND even for the leg (all connections) even during the peak season was 30% or more higher than what AA got on JFK-HND. DL's LAX-HND average fares are higher than AA or UA get on most of nearly all of their NRT flights. DL didn't discount the route aggressively just to fill seats. DL might have to discount more seats - but lower prices do impact other Tokyo routes including DL's NRT operations so DL has avoided discounting HND. DL can put loads on the SEA-HND if it needs to. They just don't want to fill planes at the higher cost of trashing pricing in the larger US-Japan market.

 

[700UW]

DL played by the rules which were full of wholes.
 

Gee how does it feel when you make the same mistakes that you chastise other posters for?

The correct word would be HOLES.

 

[WorldTraveler]

duly noted.

I am not above having someone note my errors.

 

[Hope777]

Seems Delta Doesnt like the conditions to keeping the route...
 
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-08/delta-air-objects-to-draconian-u-s-terms-to-keep-tokyo-route?cmpid=yhoo